Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Johan To The Mets Fantasy Fallout

In the biggest trade this off season, and arguably in a while, the Minnesota Twins have agreed to trade Johan Santana to the Mets for outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey.


With the New York Mets, expect Johan to win 18-23 games. He will thrive playing in the NL without a DH, playing in a pitcher's ballpark. He will also have the benefit of a rather potent Met offense, which will offer him very good run support. Johan was a round 1 or 2 draft pick before this trade, and going to the Mets only increases his value.

You can also expect a very good rebound season from Pedro Martinez. While he isn't what he used to be, he is still a great 6 inning pitcher, and will now be facing the number 2 starter on most teams. Expect Pedro to possibly miss a start here and there as we are accustomed to seeing, but he is a near shoe in for 15 wins and 190Ks.


The Twins get 2 pitching prospects in Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey who probably won't see the majors in 2008, so lets move on.

Carlos Gomez should probably play center field for the Twins next season. Expect many growing pains from Gomez, he won't hit for a high average, and his power will be suspect. He can steal a base, and if you can tolerate the weaknesses will be a good source to puck up 30-40sb.

Phil Humber will probably slide into the 5 hole into the rotation, while the rest of the Twins rotation moves up a slot. Humber is not worth drafting or even having on your draft board. In fact if he is on your draft board, throw your draft board away.

Francisco Liriano will move up a slot in the rotation and despite coming back from Tommy John surgery will be counted on to be the ace of a staff. We broke down what to expect from Liriano here.

Boof Bonser will be looked to pick up some slack as well as become the number 2. Bonser in his first full season as a starter had an up and down year for the Twins. He enters this year, with a lot of hype, stirred up by the news that he has lost 20lbs. Bonser has decent stuff, and is worth a late round flier as a sleeper, if he can find consistency and the strike zone.

Scott Baker pitched well for the Twins last season. He took a Perfect game into the 9th inning against the Kansas City Royals last season, giving up a walk to John Buck and then a hit to Mike Sweeney. Baker is a guy who should be a mid-round pick guy, but he will go much later. He is a great sleeper for late in the draft.

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