Fantasy Sports Experience
Showing posts with label MLB. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MLB. Show all posts

Monday, January 5, 2009

Pat Burrell Signs With Tampa Bay Rays: FANTASY IMPACT

Left fielder Pat Burrell has agreed to a 2 year $16 million deal with the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday ending his 9 year relationship with the Philadelphia Phillies. Burrell has never been known for his defense, so it makes sense to expect the Rays to move him to the DH spot in the line up.

FANTASY IMPACT

There are a few good positives that like about this signing for Burrell and his signing with Tampa. For one, he is going to team where his fantasy value won't take a hit. He should still be good for 30HR, 90-100RBI, a .255AVG and 75R. If your league counts this sort of thing, his OBP and SLG should also remain similar to what he has done in the past. Figure the Tamp line up to look something like this

Akinora Iwamura
Carl Crawford
B.J. Upton
Carlos Pena
Evan Longoria
Pat Burrell
Matt Joyce
Dioner Navarro
Jason Bartlett

This is just a preliminary make up and it could change during Spring Training, but top to bottom there might not be a deeper line up in all of baseball. I like the fact that Pena and Longoria will be hitting in front of him and second year man Matt Joyce will be hitting behind him. I like Joyce's sleeper power potential going into this season as well and catcher Dioner Navarro showed himself to be a formidable out at the plate, hitting .294AVG with 7HR and 54RBI. Not great numbers, but respectable for a catcher.

The aforementioned move the the DH spot in the line up should only help Burrell's value. His defensive range has become a legitimate concern for the Phillies over the last few seasons, so the signing won't hurt the Rays' strong defense. At the age of 32 the move to the DH spot should also help Pat the Bat stay healthy and keep him from waring down as the season progresses as we saw last season with the Phillies.

While Burrell has never separated himself as an elite outfielder he does have legit power and is good for a solid 30HR and 90RBI. I think that being out of the scrutiny of the Philadelphia media and fan base will also help his psyche and focus throughout the year. He will probably be a but undervalued going into your draft this season, as he normally is, so don't be afraid to take him and might actually be worth it to target him as someone you take a risk on and draft a round or two earlier than you expect to.

Friday, January 2, 2009

O's, White Sox Talking Roberts for Floyd: Fantasy Impact

More good stuff from MLBTraderumors.com. They are reporting that the Orioles and the White Sox are discussing a Brian Roberts for Gavin Floyd deal. The major hold up being that the Orioles want more in return than just Floyd. Makes sense to me. A lot of teams would demand more than just one of those pesky 25-year-old, 17 game winners, with good ERAs and low WHIPs for the services or a 2B.

FANTASY IMPACT

This deal is the perfect symbol for the difference between reality baseball and fantasy. In reality, I'd rather have the young starter to help build a strong rotation. In fantasy, you want the speedy 2B, who can put up numbers across different categories. Just an interesting side note I thought I'd toss in there.

I am pretty sure I wrote this article a year ago, only Roberts was going to the Cubs. Roberts would offer the White Sox some good defense and a very good bat at the top of their line up. Roberts can steal bases, score runs and get on base. With the jettisoning of Orlando Cabrera and shifting of Alexei Ramirez from 2B to SS the White Sox have needs at both 2B and the lead off spot and Roberts would fit in perfectly with what the Sox need.

Expect him to have another season with over 100Rs, 40SB and a .290-.300AVG. I put guys like Chase Utley, and Ian Kinsler , who can hit for power and average ahead of Roberts in he rankings. Some might even put Dustin Pedroia ahead of him, but I am waiting for another season of consistency from Pedroia before I am ready to do that.

Floyd is a young righty with a good fastball low 90s fastball and a very good curve. He is just entering his prime and would give the O's a very good 2 starter behind Jeremy Guthrie. His fantasy value could change a bit as a move to the A.L. East would meaning facing the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays a lot more. He would also be moving to a hitter friendly ballpark with a team that has a rather depleted offense. Neither of these factors would lead one to believe that Floyd would be able to repeat his '08 performance. I think an ERA in the low to mid 4.00s and 13-15wins would be a fair prediction of what Floyd will be able to do if he continues his growth as a pitcher.

Jones' Contract Restructured: Expect Business to Pickup

According the SI.com's Jon Heyman the Dodgers have reached an agreement with center fielder Andruw Jones that allows them to deffer $12 million of his original 2009 contract. This story broke last night and it is expect to foreshadow the next two key off season moves for the Dodgers. 1) Trade Jones, 2) Resign Manny Ramirez

Trading away Jones might not prove to be all that difficult. Previous rumors circulated had him being shipped off to the Mets, however it never materialized because the Mets and Dodgers couldn't work out the financials. I am sure there will be some team that is willing to take a shot at him as a reclamation project in center, or as speculated in the Mets rumor, in right.

Agent Scott Boras sold the Dodgers a lemon last season with the Jones contract and its conceivable that the Dodgers told him, 'Hey we'd love to sign Manny. The problem is we have this pesky Andruw Jones Albatross eating up loads of our payroll already.' Again that is just speculation on my part, but it could explain why Boras would have agreed to a restructuring.

The next key off season move for the Dodgers is to lock up Manny. He carried them into the playoffs last season and provided a lift for a young offense that struggles and is prone to hot and cold streaks.

FANTASY IMPACT

Andruw Jones would be on more or less be on his last chance. The Mets might be a good place for him to try and regain his swing and bravado on the playing field. The Mets showed their patience with Carlos Delgado last season and allowed him to work through his struggles at the plate, when many felt his career as a power hitting first baseman was over. The Mets patience paid off and they were handsomely rewarded when Delgado came onto be the hottest hitter in the majors over the last few months of the '08 season. They might need to be ready to wait out Jones to see if he can regain his homerun swing from yesteryear. The move to right field would allow him less wear and tare on his legs over the course of a long season and should only benefit him.

Don't expect great things out of the gate, but it could certainly be worth it to stash him. It will probably take him a while before he is able to swing the bat the way he once did. You can probably get him later on in the draft as a sleeper. However, is not a guy I would go out of my way to draft

Manny showed what can do when he wants to play hard last season with the Dodgers hitting 17HR, with 53RBI while hitting .396AVG in 53 games. He wanted to get paid this off season and boy did he earn it. I think Manny could go as high as the second round, as low as the fourth. Some might be hesitant to draft him, afraid he will turn it off and coast now that he has his contract.

I disagree. I think Manny hits about .300, with 30HR, and 120RBI. He was mailing it in with Boston because he wanted out. Now he is with a team that showed how much they wanted to bring him back by restructuring another player's deal. I also think that Joe Torre's presence as the manager will help keep Manny's ego in check.

Score One For The Good Guys: Tony Clark Resigns With 'Zona: Fantasy Impact

According to ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick Tony Clark and the Arizona Diamondbacks have reached an agreement on a 1 year contract. The veteran journey man will serve as a back up to first baseman, Conor Jackson and provide some switch hitting pop off the bench.

FANTASY IMPACT

If Jackson continues to offer limited power at first base, there is a chance (all be it small) that Clark grabs some playing time there. His last truly productive season was in 2005 when he his 30HR and drove in 87RBI. In his 3 seasons since then, he has not combined to hit 30HR and only managed 3 last season.

While Clark's value on the field is truly limited, it is what he provides in clubhouse that is most important. A veteran leader and all around good guy. I used to work at the YES Network, when Clark was on the Yanks and he is legitimately the nicest athlete I have met. Unfortunately, this does nothing to help his fantasy value. Don't bother to have Clark on your draft board and during the season, you'll probably be able to find much more productive back up 1B if something happens to yours.

Thursday, January 1, 2009

Dodgers Working With Boras To Buyout Andruw Jones So They Can Sign Manny

MLBTraderumors.com nailed this gem. I can't even accurately explain exactly what is going on, but here is the link to MLBTR's version and the link to T.J. Simer's article at the L.A. Times. The way it sounds the Dodgers would have save $12 million of the near $22 million Jones is owed this year. This could come via buyout or trade, with the dealings going directly through Scott Boras.

UPDATE 1/2: JONES CONTRACT RESTRUCTURED


I know that sounds odd, so please read the above links for further clarification.

MLB.com had another version of this story that makes a bit more sense. A deferred buyout, where Jones would get the money owed to him over the course of many seasons. The only other time I could remember this happening was when the Mets boughtout Bobby Bonilla in 2000. Under terms of that agreement, Bonilla would be paid nearly $1.2 million every year from 2011 to 2035, which is stunning considering Bonilla was only signed on for one more season at $5.9 million. Maybe Bobby Bo was some sort of soothsayer and had an idea of the economic difficulties the country would be facing now. Keep in mind that was back in 2000. Can you imagine what Boras will ask them to pay per year now?!?!

When asked for a comment about the Jones' buyout situation, Dodger's GM, Ned Colletti gave the ever damning, ""We can't confirm that and right now we don't have a comment." The story is so strange, wouldn 't Colletti have come out and denied it if it wasn't true? His lack of a clear comment only furthers the belief that there is something to this and it is already in the works.

Boras again is making himself the center of attention this off season. In a year where teams are being more and more financially responsible, it seems like he'll go to any length to get his guys big time money. With word coming down the San Francisco Giants are entering the bidding war, it seems like Boras is doing his best to get a legit bidding war going on, so Manny can get closer to that 4 year $100million contract he wanted. I doubt he gets it, however would anyone now be shocked if someone handed Manny a 3 year $75 million deal?

We speculated here what team would really be the best fit for Manny and explain why. The answer might surprise you.

Mets Gonna (B)Lowe It

Word has come down from the New York Post that free agent righty Derek Lowe isn't thrilled with the Mets first contract offer to him. In fact, sources told the Boston Globe that the Lowe has already told agent Scott Boras to field offers from other team that are more inline with their contract expectations. The Mets' offer is said to be worth $36 million over 3 years and is well below the 5 year $90 million Boras said the righty was looking for in the off season. The Post article went on to say that the Mets are prepared to wait out Lowe and aren't prepared to increase their offer to him that much.

We said earlier that the Mets shouldn't dabble
around and try to play a game of financial chicken with Scott Boras. The Red Sox thought they were in the driver's seat for Mark Teixeira and wound up standing when the music stopped. The Mets need a starter. A veteran, who can stablize the middle of the order and give them consistent innings every fifth day. Lowe fills their needs perfectly as will he blend in very well with the Met defense behind him.

It is silly for the Mets to think that they are in the driver's seat and that Boras will at some point come groveling to them and accept these initial terms. The first offer they made has already rubbed Lowe the wrong way and they shouldn't be playing hard to get when they are the ones who are trying to do the getting.

Rangers Win Turnbow Sweepstakes

Free agent reliever and reclamation project, Derrick Turnbow has signed a 1 year deal with the Texas Rangers ending weeks of speculation of where his next home would be. Turnbow was also being pursued by the Marlins and Pirates, but decided to sign with the Rangers based on his relationship with pitching coach Mike Maddux, who he had previously worked with in Milwaukee.

FANTASY IMPACT

Turnbow's career has been on the downside ever since the 2005 season when he managed to save 39 games to the tune of a 1.74ERA. He bottomed out in 2008, pitching 6.1 innings with an ERA of 16.23 and a WHIP of 4.10.

The numbers are disastrous, however there are some reasons to like Turnbow going into the '09 season as a good sleeper. First off, despite all of his struggles, he still manages more than a strikeout an inning. Let's investigate.

2005- 64K / 67.1 IP / 24BB
2006- 69K / 56.1 IP / 39BB
2007- 84K / 68 IP / 46BB
2008- 5K / 6.1 IP / 13BB

It should be noted that in his best season, 2005, Turnbow managed 64K in 67.1 IP. This tells us that Turnbow's stuff is still there and his struggles aren't due to a decrease in velocity. Clearly the physical ailment that caused Turnbow to shut down his 2008 season and rehab his shoulder was the reason for his most recent struggles. Turnbow's control problems look to be directly linked to his injury and in turn have effected his success rate and ability on the mound.

The Rangers currently have C.J. Wilson listed their closer or Frank Francisco, depending on which depth chart you look at. Wilson didn't enamored himself with management or his teammates last season and the surgically repaired bow, that ended his 2008 campaign, still might not be 100%. Francisco wound up with 5 saves last season and took the job in September when various injuries left him the last man standing in the Ranger's bullpen.

No matter who the Rangers believe their closer to be, Turnbow will have an opportunity to get in line for some saves if he can prove he can do the job. Turnbow right now is a decent end of the draft sleeper pick, and as the season gets closer, his value can only increase based on new information and his performance in spring training. I also like the Turnbow will be working with pitching coach Mike Maddux again. Maddux is already familiar with Turnbow's mound tendencies and mechanics, so hopefully this speeds up his rehabilitation time frame.

Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Cubs Are Making a Big Mistake

SI.com's Jon Heyman speculates that with their recent trades of Jason Marquis and Mark DeRosa the Chicago Cubs now will turn their attention to bringing in a right fielder. Heyman says that the Cubs are going to focus their attention to bringing in the switch hitting, ever volatile, oft injured, Milton Bradley. Bradley would fit in very well in the Cubbies line up and would be counted on to provide the pop from the left side of the plate that they had counted on getting when they signed Kosuke Fukudome last off season.

Bradley, when healthy is a five tool player and an OPS machine. However, he is only fully healthy for about 2-3 weeks out of a regular fantasy season. He had a very good season last year with Texas and still only managed to play in 120 games. Of those 100 came as a DH while the other 20 were in the outfield. Last I checked the the N.L. does not feature a DH position, meaning that Bradley would have to play right field everyday in order to be in the line up. Again, last I checked Bradley can't stay healthy and in the line up enough as an everyday outfielder. The Cubs would be making a big mistake by bringing him on and expecting him to play in 120-140 games as an everyday outfielder. He couldn't play in 120 games last season when he was DHing most of the time, how is he supposed to stay on the field if he has to play the outfield too?

If the Cubs were smart they would let Bradley go somewhere else, (for his own good it should be an A.L. team) and focus their efforts on bringing in Adam Dunn. Dunn has thrived hitting in Wrigley Field as an opposing player over the years and would provide a lefty presence in the line up that the Cubs are looking for. Think of how dangerous a 3-4-5 of Derrek Lee, Adam Dunn and Aramis Ramirez would be.

In 60 games played at Wrigley over the course of his career Adam has amassed 217AB, 23HR, 44RBI, a .286BA, a .419OBP, and a ridiculous .664SLG. There is really no other away ballpark Adam played at that is even comparable to the numbers he put up at Wrigley Field.

Adam also provides something Bradley can't. A healthy, consistent bat that can play everyday. Over the last 5 seasons consider the following. Since the 2004 season Adam has played in 152 or more games every year. He also holds the distinction of hitting 40 or more homeruns in each of those years. Finally, he has averaged 100RBI a season in that time, as well as close to 100R scored. This is not a small sample size or a one season thing, like we saw from Bradley last year. This is a guy who has been one of the most consistent power and RBI bats in all of baseball for the better part of a half of a decade.

If the Cubs do wind up deciding to go in this direction they better move fast because they aren't the only ones vying for Adam's services.

Fuentes Signs With The Angels

The closer market got a little smaller today with the L.A. Angels of Anaheim announcing they have signed Brian Fuentes. Fuentes is coming off of a great 2008 season where he had 30 saves and a 2.73ERA. The move once again signifies how much Anaheim prides itself on having of the deepest and deepest bullpens in baseball.

FANTASY IMPACT

Expect the lefty to have another solid 30+ save season in Anaheim this season. The Angels play in one of the worst divisions in baseball, so they should be winning plenty of ball games and giving him plenty of opportunities. He will be undervalued at draft time because of his '07 struggles and because he didn't take over the closer's role until the end of April, when the Rockies had finally grown tired of the Manny Corpas Pyrotechnics Show getting lit up every night.

I should note, however, that Corpas is currently listed as the Rockies closer for next season, according to ESPN.com's depth chart. Given his struggles early last season, he could be a good sleeper closing candidate that could be had much later on in the draft. It is now also worth noting that his top set up man will be Houston Street, who has thrived in the closer's role for years. I could envision the Rocks handing the job to Street and then trading him while his value is high and then hand Corpas the job later on in the season.

The biggest impact this move has is on guys like Scot Shields and Jose Arrendondo, who have both been dominant set up men in the past and were expected to replace Francisco Rodriguez as the Angel's closer. Shields having more experience might have given him the edge going into Spring Training, however many believed that Arrendondo would have been given a shot to close first. It was a case of Shields being so good at his job, they wouldn 't want to move him.

None of this matters now, as Fuentes will get the ball at the end of the game, for a team that stands to win a lot of ball games.

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Best Fit For Manny

A slow day of baseball headlines has forced me to play the "what if" game (not that the Blue Jays monumental signings of Micheal Barrett and Mike Maroth aren't blog-worthy). I decided to do some thinking about which team would really be the best fit for Manny Ramirez. After looking at all thirty teams and their current situations I have found the team that would be the best fit for Manny.

The Milwaukee Brewers

WAIT PLEASE KEEP READING!

I know Manny has alienated himself every where he has gone. He managed to carry the Dodgers to the playoffs and was a hero, and even they look like they are moving on as if he won't be there next season. I know he is flaky and plays when he feels like it, and his defense is an embarrassment at times. However, I do think there are many more positives to his signing there than there negatives.

Manny would give the Brewers the best 3-4-5 in baseball. Imagine Manny, Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun hitting in a row. It would give them the best middle of the line up in all of baseball. Better than the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Cubs, Tigers, Astro's, Phillies or any other team you can think of. Those are 3 40HR, 120RBI guys who can all hit .280 or better. It would also allow the Brewers to stagger their line up and go righty- lefty- righty.

Milwaukee's current outfield situation features Mike Cameron in center, Ryan Braun in left and Corey Hart in right. Now clearly the Brewers are not going to trade Braun and by bringing on Manny they are going to need all the defensive help they can get, so keeping Cameron also makes sense. The player who they should trade is Hart. He was an All- Star last season, so he value is still high, despite slumping badly in the second half of the '08 season, hitting .239AVG with only 5HRs and 33RBIs. It is known that the Giants have been shopping Jonathan Sanchez and looking for hitting. A Hart for Sanchez deal would make sense for a hitting starved Giants team and a Brewers team that currently features only one lefty and Dave Bush as its #2 starter.

Some would argue that Milwaukee is a small market team and can't just throw money around at players like that. I would argue that Milwaukee just offered C.C. Sabathia a 5 year $100 million contract and were prepared to increase their offer. So, don't give me that 'whoa is me, small market, can't afford him' act. They have the money it is there, it's a matter of thinking if they want to go for it now or stick with the status quo. The way things are going for Manny right now, he might be lucky to get a 3 year, $70 million contract offer. A lot of money for a small market team like Milwaukee, but it would be worth the risk, if it meant bringing home a championship.

Others might say that Hart is about a decade younger than Manny and they would be getting older and losing a player who could be good for another 7-8 years and getting a player who might only have a good season or two left. I would argue that the Brewers only have another season or two with Prince Fielder on the roster. He is going to start arbitration soon and will begin to make a lot more money than he is now. In fact, there have already been Prince trade rumors that have circulated. And it would also allow them to bring in some much needed starting pitching help in a player like Sanchez, who is a young, strikeout lefty. Wouldn't Milwaukee be doing their fans better by bringing on a big ticket, game changing hitter like Manny and going for it all in 2009?

This is just pure speculation on my part. Feel free to post agreements or disagreements.

Monday, December 29, 2008

Andruw Jones to the Mets Rumored

ESPN.com's Buster Olney is reporting that the Mets and L.A. Dodgers are discussing a deal that would send the much maligned Andruw Jones out of L.A. and to New York. The deal makes sense for the Dodgers as it would allow them to free up some cash and room in their already crowded outfield, to sign Adam Dunn.

Jones was once looked at by many as a sure fire first ballot Hall of Fame player. He played a gold glove center field and hit 20+ homeruns for 10 straight seasons. However, an ever increasing decline in his offensive production, defensive range and an increase in his waste size have caused many to question if he can still play the game effectively.

If he can get himself back into playing shape and has clear up the knee injuries that plagued him for much of the '08 season, the move would give the Mets a very good sleeper candidate in right field to start next season.

FANTASY IMPACT

If the Dodgers do sign Dunn I think his value stays the same. Granted Dunn goes into a much bigger home ballpark, but he also goes into a better contact line up, that will be less prone to prolinged slumps. Also, most of Dunn's homeruns go a very long way and would leave the ballpark, no matter how big it is.

Andruw Jones would be on more or less be on his last chance. The Mets might be a good place for him to try and regain his swing and bravado on the playing field. The Mets showed their patience with Carlos Delgado last season and allowed him to work through his struggles at the plate, when many felt his career as a power hitting first baseman was over. The Mets patience paid off and they were handsomely rewarded when Delgado came onto be the hottest hitter in the majors over the last few months of the '08 season. They might need to be ready to wait out Jones to see if he can regain his homerun swing from yesteryear. The move to right field would allow him less wear and tare on his legs over the course of a long season and should only benefit him.

Come draft time take Dunn where you normally would. With Jones take him late, as a sleeper, but be ready to go through some early down periods early on. Don't expect great things out of the gate, but it could certainly be worth it to stash him. It will probably take him a while before he is able to swing the bat the way he once did.

Sunday, December 28, 2008

Sox Close to Picking Up Penny: Fantasy Impact

Foxsports.com's Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Red Sox and free agent Brad Penny are close to agreeing on a one year deal pending some contract details and a physical. The latter could be the more difficult part for Penny given his injury plagued 2008 campaign.

(Update: WBZ TV's Dan Roche confirmed the Penny deal to be for, one year at $5 million, with another $3 million in potential incentives. The deal, however is still pending a physical.)

Penny won 16 games for the L.A. Dodgers in 2006 and again in 2007. In 2006 he was the starting pitcher for the N.L. All Star team. It looked as if he was going to cash it in following the 2008 season, however shoulder injuries derailed his season and he finished 6-9 with an ERA over 6.00. The fact that the Dodgers turned down a single season, market value option on him, perhaps hints that they weren't totally convinced his shoulder issues are behind him.

The deal is reminiscent of the one the Sox signed Bartolo Colon to last season. An All Star pitcher, who has been battling injury, given a one year contract to try and increase their market value, following a few injuries


FANTASY IMPACT

I find it a bit disconcerting that Penny fought shoulder injuries all last season, and there was no sort of surgery or rehab done during the season that was able to diagnose and fix exactly what was wrong with him. If there was something that wasn't serious wouldn't the Dodgers have resigned him? They could use the starter with Derek Lowe leaving via free agency and the young Clayton Kershaw still being limited in the amount of innings they want him to throw.

The Red Sox aren't exactly taking a risk here, and it is a bit too early to tell if Penny is healthy enough to hold up over the long haul of a full baseball season. What it does show is that the Sox want to be patient with Clay Buchholz and his development, and probably want to try and use Justin Masterson in a variety of ways, as an arm out of the bullpen and spot starter when needed.

So basically what we learned is; take Penny late in your draft as a sleeper. However this could change come March as we learn more about how healthy he is. He has ace type stuff and could wind up being the 3 or 4 starter, which will favor him greatly in most match ups. The Red Sox are not yet ready to let The Buccholz train leave the station. They don't want to rush him and have him take a step back like he did in 2008 again, so the signing of a veteran like Penny can give him some more time to develop in the minors. That being said, Buchholz is still a great prospect and is worth a late round pick, as he'll get the first call to the majors when a Red Sox starter goes down with an injury.

Saturday, December 27, 2008

Willy Taveras to the Reds: Fantasy Impact

The Cincinnati Reds and center fielder Willy Taveras agreed to a two-year contract on Saturday. Taveras is coming off of a mediocre 2008 season where he only managed to hit a paltry .251 with a .308 on-base percentage, making him expendable for his former team, the Colorado Rockies. Despite the rather down season Taveras still managed to lead all of baseball with 68 stolen bases in 75 attempts.

FANTASY IMPACT

Taveras needs to stay healthy and show he can play everyday. The move away from Coors Field could actually help Taveras' numbers this season. Coors Field has quite an expansive outfield, that combined with the thin air and Taveras' thin frame probably made it difficult for his body to recuperate properly and added to the wear and tare his body went through. Moving to a smaller outfield that is actually located at sea level should help Taveras stay healthier than he has over the last few seasons.

The 2008 season was a bit of an anomaly as he had his career worst season with the bat, yet had a career year using his speed, doubling his previous single season stolen base total. This could be seen as a fluke or it could be looked at as a player finally developing what he does best as a baseball player and playing to his strength, like we have seen Juan Pierre do for years.

The young Reds team that will surround him in the line up could also be a detriment. No one will doubt the talent of the players that will surround him. Guys like Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce are some of the finest rising stars in the game. However, they are still young and will be prone to some ups and downs and inconsistencies throughout a long baseball season.

Taveras, despite being a speedster and lead off man for the majority of his career, has never scored 100 runs in a season or collected more than 180 hits. Before 2008 he had never stolen more than 34 bases in a season and has yet to drive in more than 30RBIs in a season. Granted in the NL it's tougher for a lead off man to drive in runs with the pitcher hitting in front of him, but still at some point you'd expect to see better production in at least one season.

Taveras is strictly a stolen base threat at this point and should be looked at as nothing else. He could, at best, steal 60 bases again and score close to 100 runs and finish with a .300AVG. At worst he gets nicked up again, misses time and winds up with around 70runs scored and 35SB.

Come draft day I would avoid taking him out of necessity. That meaning, don't draft a line up full of strictly sluggers and then bank on Taveras to go out there and make up the difference. His numbers have been rather inconsistent and you don't know how much time he'll spend on the ball field. If you can grab him as a guy to bolster your stolen base numbers and to compliment other stolen base threats you have, you'll be in a much more stable position.

Friday, December 26, 2008

Randy Johnson Signs With Giants

The Big Unit will give it another go in the NL West next season in his question for 300. The 45-year-old, five time Cy Young Award winner signed a one year, $8 million contract with the San Fransisco Giants Friday night. The contract joins Johnson with an already formidable Giants staff that features former Cy Young winners Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito as well as the highly touted Matt Cain.

FANTASY IMPACT

Johnson has gone to a very good place and this really helps his fantasy value for next season. While the Giants' offense is nothing to write home about (in fact it's nothing to write anywhere about) the Big Unit should see similar success to what he saw in the second half of last season with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Don't be totally fooled by Johnson's overall numbers, his second half numbers showed flashes of the Unit of old we are used to seeing.

First half

Wins- 6
Losses- 7
ERA- 5.23
Strikeouts- 95
Innings Pitched- 98
Games- 17

Second Half

Wins-5
Losses- 3
ERA-2.41
Strikeouts- 78
Innings Pitched- 86
Games- 13

Clearly Johnson's numbers picked up in the second half as he got healthier and came to terms with what he now is as a pitcher. Less power, more finesse, pitching more to contact and allowing the defense to do their jobs really allowed Johnson to thrive. If you add that to the fact that he'll be going from a good hitter's park to a good pitcher's park, you could have yourself a five time Cy Young Award winner, with over 4,700K's who could be a draft day steal.

He isn't the dominant ace he once was in years past, but you can still expect near 15 wins, 175Ks and an ERA in the low 3.00s. Before last season's draft I would have told you to avoid Johnson because he was such a health risk. However, he really seems to have righted himself and has his back issues in check, so I don't think he'll be somebody you have to worry about breaking down too early in the season and losing him for an extended period of time. Think of taking him around the same time an A.J. Burnett or Scott Shields might get drafted.

Sunday, June 8, 2008

Top Pickups Around The Diamond & On the Mound - 6/8/08

Another week, another time for me to spend 2 hours checking the minor league stats of Rod Barajas.

Around The Diamond...

C- Rod Barajas

Barajas had a few good seasons with Texas and since then has been relegated to back up duty and has not been a fantasy worthy name. In 92 at bats this season, Barajas is doing his best to make himself relevant again. He has 5HR to go along with 17RBI and 12R, for the Toronto Blue Jays, and has found himself as the everyday starter with regular Greg Zaun on the DL. He is having a far superior season to Zaun and might have found himself a way to remain in the line up at C or even DH when Zaun returns.

VERDICT

Barajas might actually be a decent addition as the Blue Jays are starved for offense and he will get at bats so long he produces. if you are hard up for catching help go out and grab Barajas, who still might be able to reproduce the effectiveness he showed in seasons past.

1B- Chad Tracy

Tracy came on a few seasons ago and had a huge first year. Since then he hasn't done a whole lot and has become a utility player as Conor Jackson and Mark Reynolds now man the corner infield spots for Arizona. Thus far in only 20 at bats, he is hitting an even .300 with 2HR and 3RBI, prompting many to add him in their league in the hopes he can reclaim the magic he showed in season past.

VERDICT

I am not buying the hot start. He won't be starting once Connor Jackson comes back and the talk of him moving to the outfield will fizzle when Eric Byrnes comes back healthy as well. He is going to have to hit to earn his way back into the everyday line up and that will be difficult for him when he is constantly shifting to different positions as a super utility man.

2B Alexi Casilla

Casilla has had a few cups of coffee in the majors over the last two seasons and is now getting the everyday starting job at 2B while hitting second in the line up to help Carlos Gomez provide a spark and speed at the top. Casilla can steal a bag and knows how to draw a walk, making him serviceable at least in most leagues, especially if your current 2B is injured or struggling. He needs the everyday at bats to keep the average up and the stolen bases should come at a greater frequency oce he gets settled in. Believe it or not the one thing that could slow his speed down is having Carlos Gomez on base ahead of him, as the Twins would be more reluctant to have him run if it's a double steal, and the risk to be thrown out at third grows.

VERDICT

I like Casilla. I checked out the numbers and think he can do some things out there. Don't expect the power he has flashed early on, but he can slap the ball around and plays well hitting in front of Joe Mauer, and Justin Morneau. While the RBIs will slow down, he will still get a decent amount because of the aforementioned Gomez, and his speed in front of him.

3B Ian Stewart

Listed at 3B and playing 2B, this is another example of an immensely talented young player on Colorado's roster. The Rox have been trying to find a place for him on the big league roster, but he has been blocked by incumbent Garret Atkins. The banged up middle infield finally gave Stewart enough of a shot to get in there and Colorado seems bent on giving him every opportunity to succeed and show what he can do there.

VERDICT

Based on his minor league stats Stewart is a threat to hit the long ball, and also be able steal a base. He has some very good numbers in the minors, but the change of position in addition to the adjustment of going from hitting minor league pitching to major league pitching might be abit more than Steart can handle this early in his young career. Don't expect great things from him yet, but next season he might be a great young sleeper pick, who is both 3B
and 2B eligible.

SS Jhonny Peralta

Can hit the long ball and finish with a decent amount of RBI but does nothing to distinguish himself as a SS. In 2005 many thought his 21HR, 78 RBI campaign was a precursor of things to come with the next great SS. Instead all that season did was serve as was a reason for Peralta owners to get frustrated and bewildered by hsi lack of ability to grow as a hitter, to the point where he actually regressed.

The 11HR look good this season, but he only has 20RBI total to go along with a .241AVG. He is currently in a hot streak where he has collected hits and scored runs by the bunches and has given fantasy owners yet another reason to believe.

VERDICT

Don't buy the hot streak. Peralta will frustrate you more often than not and you are better off find a guy who can go out there and put up some consistent numbers for you throughout the season, even if it means sacrificing the power numbers he puts up.

OF Carlos Gonzalez

A young player on Oakland... HE MUST BE GOOD! This far Gonzalez has 19AB in the bigs has not done anything overly impressive to warrant him being added like he has been. The A's are getting ready for OF Ryan Sweeney to get healthy at which point either Gonzalez or Travis Buck will be bound for AAA. At this point I think Gonzalez will be the one headed back down because Buck has more experience and given the early indications Gonzo could use a bit more seasoning.

VERDICT

Maybe down the road, but not yet. Perhaps in September or August as a late season call up depending on where Oakland is in the standings at that point in time.

Marcus Thames

Has it gotten this bad for added outfielders? Thames is nothing more than a guy who can deliver cheap power. Low batting average, not a lot of RBI, and will have to do something to impress Jim Leyland if he wants to stay in the line up. He did hit 2HR in a game last week, but other than that there isn't a whole lot going on for him.

VERDICT

I know he is a hitter on Detroit and people have fallen in love with that line up, but please in this case it's nothing to get excited about.

Cody Ross

Speaking of cheap power... Ross had a remarkable May, managing only 14 hits, but 10 of those hits managed to leave the ballpark. For the majority of his career, Ross has only managed fill in duty and the power display he put on in May helped earn him a bit more playing time, which helped his numbers a bit.

VERDICT

It is a nice story, but this seems more Shane Spencer than Sammy Sosa. If he was going to hit 10HR every month it would be one thing, but this power was way to fluky and in no way is demonstrative of what he has done throughout the course of his career. Stay away and don't bother.

On The Mound...

Justin Masterson

With Daisuke Matsuzaka on the shelf for a bit, Masterson gets the call from the minor leagues and of course as a Red Sock with limited experience he is pitching like a seasoned veteran. It is not exactly sure how many more starts Masterson will actually get, as it depends on the ability of Clay Buccholz and Matsuzaka to get healthy and get back into the rotation.

VERDICT

If you have unlimited roster moves he might be a good bet to ride while he is hot. If you are limited or already have a full staff, don't bother, he won't be around in the majors that much longer.

Homer Bailey

Cincinnati's most coveted and hyped pitching prospect makes his debut Thusday, playing at Philadelphia. Let me repeat, young pitcher, coming up to the majors for his first start of the season, AT PHILADELPHIA.

VERDICT

He has enough talent to merit an addition to most fantasy squads in most leagues. However, I would not go near having him start in his big league debut against Philly. Grab him and stash him so you can see what you will potentially get out of him down the road.

Rafael Soriano

With John Smoltz being lost to the DL for the rest of the season, someone has to close in the ATL. Soriano was the closer early in the season, but after one save he wound up in a familiar place, on the DL nursing elbow soreness. After locking down two saves it appeared Soriano had turned the corner; however, he was unable to pitch this weekend due to elbow tendinitis.

VERDICT

Manny Acosta did a fine job of blowing the lead and the game on Wednesday, so don't expect to see him get the ball in any pressure situations any time soon. Soriano has said he just needs a few days to rest and will return for week 11. He will close, so long as he is healthy. Keep an eye on Mike Gonzalez who's return is getting cl0ser.

Dan Wheeler/ Salomon Torres

Wheeler will get save opportunities while Troy Percival remains on the shelf. Torres will get save opportunities while Eric Gagne remains on the shelf, and will probably continue to do so afterward as well.

VERDICT

Torres is probably the better bet to be closing a month or two from now, so if you have to choose between the two, go with him.

Joel Zumaya

The once dominant set up man was beset by injuries in 2007 and so far in the beginning of 2008. He has been rehabbing his arm and in his last appearance he touched 100MPH on the gun, something many thought he might never do again.

VERDICT

Could be a great source of ERA, WHP and Ks for your fantasy team. Todd Jones is pretty well entrenched in the closer's role there, so don't expect him to take any chances away from him.

Bonderman's Season Over: FANTASY IMPACT

According to Baseball Prospectus.com's Will Carrol, Jeremy Bonderman has under gone surgery to correct the clotting problem that has arisen in his shoulder. The surgery ends Bonderman's season as the recovery time is listed as being between 6-12months.

This is a big blow for the Tiger's rotation as it seemed as if Bonderman was just getting it going. It looks like this means more turns in the rotation for upstart Armando Gallaraga and professional disaster Dontrelle Willis. Gallaraga is a decent starting option, but it's obvious the Tigers have lost faith in Willis and are reluctant to start him on a consistent basis.


FANTASY IMPACT

Bonderman really isn't that good, and is generally one of the more overrated pitchers come draft day, He was awful to start the season and while he has pitched better of late, the WHIP remained high and his struggles to locate his pitches remained. This shouldn't be a big blow to most fantasy owners, as Bonderman's number can be easily replaced by guys like Aaron Laffey, Jason Bergmann, or Jeremy Guthrie.

Saturday, May 31, 2008

***Sleeper Alert*** Chris Duncan & Billy Butler

Chris Duncan and Billy Butler have both recently been sent down to the minors to get their swings worked out. It sounds crazy to want to buy into a player after a demotion, but this might be just what they need to right the ship and pick it once they return to the majors. I would be surprised if either player spent more than a few weeks, and at most a month. Both players can hit, Duncan for power, and Butler for average with a bit of power and upon their returns I expect both players to pick it up and hit like they should have been all season.

Duncan only has 4HR on the season after hitting 20+ the last two seasons. Duncan is drawing walks and getting on base, so he is seeing the ball well and just needs to get that power stroke back that he boasted in seasons past. The only concern I have with Duncan is that he has broken down a bit in his previous seasons and his numbers tailed off a bit down the stretch. That being said, I think he still manager to put it all together this season once he returns to the line up. 20HR is still a possibility, and he will be hitting in the heart of the line up, so he will be placed in a run producing position.

Butler is known as a youngster, who at 22, was already being labeled as a DH type, all stick and no field. After a hot opening week Butler has tailed off a lot and is currently hitting .262 with 1HR. He seems to have been made the sacrificial lamb for a struggling Royals offense, that has struggled to score runs consistently this season. But if you look at it like I do, this is actually the Royals showing confidence in Butler. They know he can hit better and they know a stint eating up some AAA pitching will be just what his swing and confidence needs to get him where he needs to be.

If you have the roster space stash one of them if you think they can help. I have Chris Duncan sitting on my bench in one of my more competitive leagues and can certainly use his pop once he returns. If you don't have the roster space, just keep an eye on their situations and when they are called back up, make a call with your own roster to see if/ where you can use them.

Friday, May 30, 2008

Top Pickups on the Mound - Week 9

Some kids and veterans on the comeback trail make for an exciting Week 9 adds list.

SP- Clayton Kershaw

Never heard of him.

FSE VERDICT- Hold off until we know more.

Clayton Kershaw (Ah Clayton Kershaw, The Stud Fireballing Lefty...)

The young lefty with a curveball nick named, "Public Enemy #1" had a successful first start against the Cardinals going 6 innings with 7Ks and a WHP of 1.00. He has a fastball that he throws for strikes in the mid 90's both up and down in the zone. When you combine that with a devestating curveball that is clocked roughly 25 MPH slower, it can make for long days for opposing hitters. The Dodgers will be very careful with him and he is another great sell high candidate. He will be limited in the amount of innings the Dodgers allow him to throw this season because they want to protect his golden arm from injury.

FSE VERDICT- If for some reason he is still available in your league or on waivers you need to put in a claim and grab him immediately. He has special stuff that can dominate a line up and win a game on his own. He can help your team in many aspects of the game and will immediately improve any pitching staff, no matter how good. Just be careful and sell high in mid-July. I doubt he'll be getting the ball in September, and if he does itwill be as a reliever so they can limit the innings on his arm.

SP- Doug Davis

The veteran has been around for years now, and with the exception of 2005 has never done anything to warrant serious fantasy ownership. This season might be a little different for Doug for a variety of reasons.

First off he will no longer be featured near the top of the D-Backs rotation. With Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Micah Owings, and a healthy Randy Johnson (for now anway), Davis does not have to be counted on to carry the team or match up against the ace of other teams. He will now see better match ups against the opposition's 4th or 5th starters.

Another reason to like Davis is because the D-Backs are scoring a ton of runs and playing good defense. Better run support will help Davis stay in games and potentially put up a solid win total. He has 15Ks in 16.2IP this season and while the WHIP is a bit high, it is nothing to get too concerned about as it is near consistent with what Davis has done in the past.

FSE VERDICT- Don't expect a Cy Young award, but if you need the help with Ks and Wins, Davis could be a solid addition. Don't think I am trying to play up the "comeback from thyroid cancer" aspect either. He can do somethings out there and might actually surprise you.

SP- Bartolo Colon

The Red Sox took their time with Colon, giving him plenty of time to rehab and get his arm in good shape. His first start off the DL ended with a W and 4Ks in 5IP. He touched 96 on the gun, and is a two start pitcher for week 9. His first start on Monday he went 7IP and gave up 5 hits to go along with only one walk and 4Ks. What's not to love?

For one Colon was playing the Royals and the Mariners respectively who have both been starved for offense for the majority of the season. At the same time, he did beat both teams and in reality, these are the teams that he should be beating.

FSE VERDICT- I am seriously beginning to believe that the Red Sox aren't expecting anything from Curt Schilling this season, making Colon all the more valuable to the Sox. They will be careful with him and baby him through some starts. With the Red Sox potent offense you can expect very good run support. On the other hand the bullpen outside of Papelbon has been up and down all year, and if Colon is only going 5-6innings a start, he is leaving a lot of outs on the field for the pen to pick up.

All that being said, he is worth the add if you need another starting pitcher. Another good suggestion, would be to then sell high near the end of June. Pitchers who are overweight and oft injured generally don't hold up too well down the stretch.

SP- Jason Bergmann

He was lit up early in the season and sent to AAA to get himself right. Since returning, he has been solid, going 7 shutout innings in each of his last two starts and combined for 14Ks in that time. Bergmann doesn't walk many guys and now that he is limiting the hits he gives up, he has seriously reduced the damage done against him.

The Nats' righty is another two start candidate in week 9 but faces tough match ups against Milwaukee and Arizona.

FSE VERDICT- Personally, I would grab him now. However, you should be able wait this week out. Bergmann pitches in relative obscurity in Washington, so he should go under the radar for a bit longer. Don't blame me if he tosses a gem and gets scooped up before you have the chance to.

RP- "Stunning" Joe Borowski

I love veteran closers and there is no reason to think Borowski won't come back to Cleveland and effectively close out games. No one in the Cleveland bullpen has been able to step up and take a firm hold of the role in his absence and Manager Eric Wedge has said the Stunning One will be his closer once healthy. Borowski locked down his first save in a month and half on Saturday and should get plenty of more chances going forward.

FSE VERDICT- Borowski doesn't have great stuff and will likely tally a high ERA. The bottom line is he gets the job done, something no one else in the Cleveland bullpen can do apparently. Go get him in all formats.

RP/SP- Joba Chamberlain

The Yanks have announced plans to ease Joba into their starting rotation by increasing his pitch count over the span of the next four to five weeks. Yankee owner Hank Steinbrenner has already called him "our Josh Beckett" several times, so fortunately there's no pressure on him to perform.

Being in New York, I have seen Joba pitch a lot, and think that he could initially struggle as a starter. He will occasionally walk guys or get into deep pitch counts and get himself into trouble. While as a reliever he boasts a gaudy strikeout rate, you can expect that to go down a bit, as he will have to pace himself better so he can last longer into games. Thus, he might initially have difficulty in is ability to pitch and not just throw as he does in 1 inning relief outings.

In spring training, Joba was roughed up a bit in the games he was starting. Granted it was only spring training, but it does raise some speculation that this move won't be as easy as many are making it seem.

FSE VERDICT- All that being said, Joba has tremendous stuff and he might be able to work out the kinks while the Yanks stretch him out from the pen. If you are hard up for a pitcher grab him and start him as a reliever. If you already have a decent staff, you don't have to go nuts over him. I could be way off base here, and am kinda going out on a limb by not buying into the "Joba The Savior" act some are pandering to, but if you don't feel as if you need to take the chance on him, then don't.

RP- Salomon Torres

With Eric Gagne out for a bit, the Brewers have initially announced that they will use a bullpen by committee to close out games. That being said, Torres is the guy with the most closing experience and with the Brewers struggling, they will need some consistency at the end of games to anchor the pen and help get them steadied.

FSE VERDICT- You should get him if you need saves. While the Brewers have showed an awkward loyalty to Eric Gagne, if Torres can close out games consistently he should be able to hold onto the closer job going forward.

RP- Chris Perez

I don't know a ton about this guy, but he is in the St. Louis bullpen and throws 100mph. He has closing experience in the minor leagues and if something should happen to Ryan Franklin he might be the next guy in line to get a save.

FSE VERDICT- If you are desperate for saves stash Perez. He could be a good candidate to help out in ERA, WHIP and to a lesser extent Ks if he can stick with the big league club.

Thursday, May 29, 2008

Frank Thomas To The DL: Eric Chavez Off The DL Fantasy Impact



Oakland A's DH Frank Thomas has landed on the DL with a strained right knee and quadriceps tendinitis. The frustrating part for Thomas and fantasy owners was that the Big Hurt had just started to get it going at the dish going 11-24 with 4HR, and 6RBI in his last six games. Thomas believes the DL stint will help him stay in the line up more when he returns because they caught the injury before it could do any serous damage to his leg.

Coming off the DL for the A's will be veteran 3B, Eric Chavez. Chavez is coming back from an off season in which he had surgery on his back and both his shoulders. During the rehab stint he has hit .367 with 11hits, 2 of them coming by way of the long ball, 7Runs and 3RBI in 9 games. For the time being Chavez will be limited as far as playing the field goes, and will instead man the DH spot for the aforementioned Thomas. Oakland does plan to try and get Chavez some playing at 3B and gradually work him back into playing the field, while all the while making sure he can remain healthy and productive for an extended period of time.

FANTASY IMPACT

Tough blow for the owners who stuck with Thomas; you get rewarded with a DL stint. I am about ready to put Chavez into the "That Old Gag" category soon, as he has been unable to be productive or healthy in a few seasons. The fact he will be DHing will help, but I just don't know if his body will ever be the same after all the surgeries. If you want to look at the small sample size from his AAA rehab stint you can, but I don't think those number will correspond to what he will do at the major league level, over the course of the rest of the season.

The positive here, if you are hard up for a 3B and want to take a gamble on Chavez is that he will be DHing. Many leagues now use errors as a stat category and if Chavez is DHing full time, you will be able to plug him into your team's 3B spot and not worry about him burning you by making errors.

Troy Percival To The DL: Fantasy Impact


The Tampa Bay Rays placed closer Troy Percival on the DL on Thursday with a slightly pulled hamstring. An MRI has already revealed the pull not to be too serious and Percival is expected back June 14 when his stint would be due to end.

Hamstrings can be a tricky injury and are known to linger throughout a season. There have been many players who will pull or simply tweak a hamstring in spring training and come August or so the player reveals it has bothered him all season, and explains why their production is down. While Percival might be ready and feeling healthy in 15 days, don't bank on the 38-year-old to be able to remain healthy for the rest of the season.

FANTASY IMPACT

In the meantime you Percival owners, or owners looking to scratch out a few saves should look to either Dan Wheeler or Al Reyes to be the main source of saves while Percival is out. Popular belief has Wheeler getting the nod in most spots as he was the one who came in and closed the door when Percival got hurt on Tuesday.

I wouldn't be surprised either if Reyes was the one who wound up getting the call. Wheeler has proven himself to be one of the most consistent set up men in the big leagues over the last three- four seasons, and Reyes has closing experience, as he did such an admirable job for the Rays last season.