Bedard to the Mariners FINALLY a Done Deal

After weeks of speculation, Erik Bedard is finally heading to the Seattle Mariners. In exchange the Orioles receive super outfield prospect Adam Jones, reliever George Sherrill and three minor leaguers - Chris Tillman, Tony Butler and Kam Mickolio.

This is a solid haul for the Orioles as they add a top outfield prospect (Orioles have a serious shortage of good positional players in their organization), a potential closer and some good minor leaguers to continue the process of replenishing a relatively dry farm system which began with the Tejada trade. Given the combination of major league-ready talent and good prospects obtained by the Orioles, I would venture to say this package is as good if not better than what the Twins and A's received for Johan Santana and Dan Haren respectively.

FANTASY IMPACT

We were all over this trade as soon as the rumors started swirling earlier in the month. For the fantasy impact of Erik Bedard's move to Seattle check out our earlier post for the most comprehensive analysis.

The other two fantasy-relevant players in this trade are Adam Jones and George Sherrill. Jones should start right away in centerfield for the Orioles and will get plenty of at-bats in hitter friendly Camden Yards. He put up excellent power numbers in AAA in 2007, posting 25 homeruns and 84 RBIs and has good fantasy potential getting regular playing time in Baltimore. FSE has more coming on Adam Jones later in the day.

With Chris Ray set to miss the 2008 season, Sherrill has an excellent chance to open the season as the closer in Baltimore, giving him a decent amount of fantasy value. Sherrill posted some excellent numbers last year, first as a situational lefty then later in the year as a set up man. He had 22 holds and vultured 3 saves to go along with a 2.35 ERA and sub 1.00 WHIP (0.985). These are types of number that can help fantasy owners across the board so keep an eye on the Orioles bullpen situation this spring.

Johan To The Mets Fantasy Fallout

In the biggest trade this off season, and arguably in a while, the Minnesota Twins have agreed to trade Johan Santana to the Mets for outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey.

FANTASY IMPACT NEW YORK METS

With the New York Mets, expect Johan to win 18-23 games. He will thrive playing in the NL without a DH, playing in a pitcher's ballpark. He will also have the benefit of a rather potent Met offense, which will offer him very good run support. Johan was a round 1 or 2 draft pick before this trade, and going to the Mets only increases his value.

You can also expect a very good rebound season from Pedro Martinez. While he isn't what he used to be, he is still a great 6 inning pitcher, and will now be facing the number 2 starter on most teams. Expect Pedro to possibly miss a start here and there as we are accustomed to seeing, but he is a near shoe in for 15 wins and 190Ks.

FANTASY IMPACT MINNESOTA TWINS

The Twins get 2 pitching prospects in Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey who probably won't see the majors in 2008, so lets move on.

Carlos Gomez should probably play center field for the Twins next season. Expect many growing pains from Gomez, he won't hit for a high average, and his power will be suspect. He can steal a base, and if you can tolerate the weaknesses will be a good source to puck up 30-40sb.

Phil Humber will probably slide into the 5 hole into the rotation, while the rest of the Twins rotation moves up a slot. Humber is not worth drafting or even having on your draft board. In fact if he is on your draft board, throw your draft board away.

Francisco Liriano will move up a slot in the rotation and despite coming back from Tommy John surgery will be counted on to be the ace of a staff. We broke down what to expect from Liriano here.

Boof Bonser will be looked to pick up some slack as well as become the number 2. Bonser in his first full season as a starter had an up and down year for the Twins. He enters this year, with a lot of hype, stirred up by the news that he has lost 20lbs. Bonser has decent stuff, and is worth a late round flier as a sleeper, if he can find consistency and the strike zone.

Scott Baker pitched well for the Twins last season. He took a Perfect game into the 9th inning against the Kansas City Royals last season, giving up a walk to John Buck and then a hit to Mike Sweeney. Baker is a guy who should be a mid-round pick guy, but he will go much later. He is a great sleeper for late in the draft.

Mets Land Johan Santana

Omar Minaya got his ace. MetsBlog is reporting that the Mets have landed Johan Santana for a package of players whose names are being withheld until New York can agree on a contract extension with the left hander.

Buster Olney is reporting that Fernando Martinez was not included in the deal so my guess is the package for Santana contains 4-5 guys among the group of Carlos Gomez, Arron Heilman, Kevin Mulvey, Deolis Guerra, Phil Humber, Mike Pelfrey and Ryan Church.

Once Santana is signed (a formality at this point) the Mets will boast one of the deepest pitching staffs in the National League featuring Santana, Pedro Martinez, John Maine and Oliver Perez. The combination of that staff with a powerful and dynamic lineup make the Mets the team to beat in the National League entering the 2008 season.

UPDATE 4:35 - USA Today reports that the Mets gave up Kevin Mulvey, Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra and Phil Humber in the deal. If this report holds up, this is a steal for the Mets in that they keep their top young pitcher (Mike Pelfrey) and hitter (Fernando Martinez).

Personal Thoughts about Rolen and Glaus

I personally don't believe this deal will get entirely done. let's think about this here. We are asking the two most often injured baseball players in recent history to pass physicals? This would be the equivalent of me trading my 89 Cavalier, with bad brakes, 190k miles on it, and a bad alignment for a Chevy Blazer with a broken back window and4 bald tires. Neither of these player can last an entire season. If these two players were used cars, they would be considered lemons.

THE DRAMA BEGINS:

Late last season, Rolen took it upon himself to sabotage my Fantasy playoff hopes and dreams. His late season defensive collapse and lack of offense (.265 avg, 8 Hrs, 58 RBI) ruined many fantasy squads across the nation. His past stats kept most of us hanging on and starting him everyday until the inevitable happened, and you realized he screwed you in 2007.

THE OTHER GUY:

Troy Glaus has been playing for ten years, However in three of those season he played less than 115 games and was injured. Glaus had a tremendous 2006 season, but was hurt for the better part of 2007. take your chances on Glaus this year, he should be a better option than Mr. Rolen. Better bat, better glove, better attitude, and he never screwed me. Go Glaus!

Did you Know that Troy Glaus played 6 games at shortstop for the Blue Jays in 2006? If Rolen was asked to play shortstop for his team, I'm sure he would complain, hold out, or all of a sudden be hurt. Not a team player, and most certainly not one of "My Guys".

Kotsay to the Braves a Done Deal; Fantasy Impact

UPDATED 1/14/08
Mark Kotsay will be heading to the Braves in a deal made Saturday, and finalized Monday, with the Oakland A's. Oakland gets righty reliever Joey Devine, who could be used as a replacement if/when the A's trade closer Houston Street.

Fantasy Impact

Kotsay has been oft injured and an ineffective fantasy player since his career season of 2004. Joey Devine really has no shot of closing, because he doesn't have a ton of major league experience. If either player were on your draft board, your team probably doesn't deserve to win anyway.

Rolen Traded For Glaus Fantasy Impact

UPDATED 1/14/08
Scott Rolen is finally leaving St. Louis, going to Toronto for Troy Glaus. The trade was pending physicals from both players, and that were finalized and approved by team doctors Monday. Rolen's shoulder issues were well documented when Tony LaRussa benched him in the playoffs, where the original feud between player and manager began. Glaus has had problems with his feet caused by playing on the artificial turf in Toronto. A change of scenery could do both players well, as injury cost both a good chunk of last season.

St. Louis Gets

Troy Glaus, before 2007, he was a perennial 30+ home run a season hitter. If he can stay healthy in St Louis, hitting behind Albert Pujols, Glaus could be in for another solid season, of 35hr, and 90rbis. Glaus can hit, that won't be the issue, the issue will be if the move to the natural playing surface can really impact his health and keep him in the line up. Glaus managed 115 games last season, hitting 20hr, with 60rbis, and a .262ba. If not for the injury these numbers look to be on par with what he normally does.

Toronto Gets

Scott Rolen, in his prime a slugging thirdbaseman, who could hit for power, average, and even steal a bag. Rolen really slumped last season, he managed only 112 games, hitting 8 hr, with 58rbis and hitting only .265. These are numbers more indicitive of a middle infielder than a once great slugger. I would be more worried about Rolen in this deal, because the injuries effect his game much more than they do Glaus'. The shoulder injury really sapped him of his power, and even his ability to hit for average. He did have off season surgery to try to repair the shoulder issue, but from a fantasy perspective, why draft a guy with the hope that surgery might help his numbers. You would be better off taking a guy you know will be healthy and at least will put up numbers consistently when healthy. Glaus might be hurt a lot, but he hits when he is on the field. Rolen, even when he was healthy last season didn't hit.

BOTTOM LINE

Personally I don't either is worth drafting or getting excited over because of this trade. First off, I rarely draft guys who are a known injury risk, and I don't like how 1-2 dimensional these players are at this point in their respective careers. In a pinch I would value Glaus over Rolen.

Trade Puts Swisher In Line For A Big 2008

At FSE, we couldn't have imagined a more appropriate starting point than today's trade of Nick Swisher to the Chicago White Sox. You see, Phil and I, we were big on Nick Swisher coming into the 2007 season. Big enough that we both had him pegged as a first round selection in our keeper league which features two keepers per team.

Our infatuation with Swisher was a product of his finish to the 2006 season which saw a promising 25 year old really start to come into his own at the plate. Swish absolutely mashed in the months of August and September hitting 13 homers with 39 RBIs and 34 runs scored. In addition to the surge in power numbers, Swisher continued to walks, drawing 4 balls 34 times over the 2 months span while compiling a stunning 1.062 OPS in the final month of the season.

Swisher had an off year in 2007 with a noticeable drop in his power numbers; however, many of his other key numbers actually remained the same or actually improved.

AB R H HR RBI BB OBP SLG OPS BA

2006 539 84 141 22 78 100 .381 .454 .835 .261

2007 556 106 141 35 95 97 .371 .492 .869 .253

Taking a closer look at Swisher's output, the bolded numbers highlight those that dropped from 2006 to 2007. If you notice, outside of the power numbers - Homeruns and Slugging - the key stats that took a hit were runs scored and RBI, two stats reliant on outside factors aka other hitters in the lineup. Swisher actually increased his OBP by walking more and equalling his 2006 hit total in the less ABs in 2007.

Given that SBs were a non-factor both seasons (he wasn't running himself out of scoring position), it can be deduced that while Swish's RBI totals were hurt a bit by his reduced power production, the fact that he hit in a poorer lineup in 2007 played a big role in his diminished offensive production, particularly runs scored. To this end, the loss of Frank Thomas as a legitimate clean up stick in the lineup furthers my point as Swish thrived when hitting in front of the Big Hurt in 06.

Not only will Swisher benefit from moving to a considerably better hitter's park, (especially for homeruns) but the 2008 Chicago White Sox lineup will also provide Swisher with ample protection. He will most likely slot into the two hole to start the season and eventually hit third. As of now, I see White Sox looking something like this next season:

1. Orlando Cabrera SS

2. Nick Swisher CF

3. Paul Konerko 1B

4. Jim Thome DH

5. Jermaine Dye RF

6. Josh Fields 3B

7. AJ Pierzynski C

8. Carlos Quentin LF

9. 2B Danny Richar?

I still feel that White Sox GM Kenny Williams has one more trade he would like to make to add pitching and it could very well include Dye or Thome (I don't see Konerko getting moved). Thus, Swish could very well begin the year in the three hole in front of Konerko, the optimal lineup spot for him in Chicago.

Finally, I would be remiss if I didn't mention that Swisher just turned the golden age of 27 on November 25th, just ask Garrett Atkins and Vernon Wells how that year worked out for them...

Swisher Trade

The Oakland A's surprised a bunch of people on Thursday trading Nick Swisher to the White Sox for 3 minor leaguers. Following the trade of Dan Haren to the Diamondbacks a couple weeks ago, I think everyone figured the A's would continue to make more trades and rebuild, that was no surprise to anyone. More specifically, I think most people, like me, thought the next guy to get traded from the A's would have been Joe Blanton. After all, if you are going to rebuild, isn't a young slugger like Nick Swisher the type of player you build an organization around? Does anyone else find it odd that Billy Beane would trade a young slugger who could be the corner stone of the franchise for the next 5-6 seasons? My thoughts on this later on...

The White Sox bolster a line up that features 5 guys who could all potentially hit .270 with 30homeruns and 90rbis (Paul Konerko, Jim Thome, Swisher, Jermaine Dye, and Josh Fields). Add to that the addition of Orlando Cabrera from the Angels and the White Sox still have the second or third best line up in their division. Being surrounded with this sort of talent and moving into a more hitter friendly ballpark should help Swisher improve his numbers a bit from last season.

That being said, I would still not go overboard and move Swisher that far up on my '08 draft board. After seeing Swisher hit .254 with 35hr and 95rbis in 2006, I had Swish very high in my '07 draft and figured that he would build on those numbers and make himself an MVP contender. Instead fantasy owners, like myself, actually saw Swisher regress as a hitter, and put up numbers that were startlingly similar to his 2006, rookie season campaign.

Year Team AB R H HR RBI BB SB BA
2007 OAK 539 84 141 22 78 100 3 0.2616
2006 OAK 556 106 141 35 95 97 1 0.2536
2005 OAK 462 66 109 21 74 55 0 0.2359

Maybe this is sour grapes from being burned by him last season, but I really don't see Swisher building on the merits of his '06 season any time soon. Sometimes players slump in the first half and pick it up in the second half (see Swish's current teammate Jermaine Dye as an example). But Swish's 2007 was so consistent, without many peaks or valleys in it, it would be tough to look at one prolonged slump as a reason for his poor numbers, because in reality the entire season was a prolonged slump. There was also never a mention of injury to account for his sudden and abrupt loss of power, as there was in his 2006 season when he acquired mono for the month of July and his number dipped across the board.

I doubt a change of scenery helps any. As Swish loved playing in Oakland, and was a favorite both in the clubhouse and to the fans. I think with Chicago Swisher turns into a younger version of Raul Ibanez. He had one really outstanding season, and a bunch of solid seasons after that, that make people forget he is around. Maybe Billy Beane already knew this. They had gotten all they could out of Swisher and traded him before his value dropped after this season. Swisher is still a fine, fine fantasy player, just don't let this trade make you over value him come draft time.

As for Oakland, I think that for 2008, the player who could have the most impact is the hard throwing, Fautino De Los Santos. I could see him possibly setting up or getting an early shot at closing, especially if Oakland also trades Houston Street, while they continue to rebuild.

Looking ahead, after this news, I expect Oakland to trade Eric Chavez next, probably to the Brewers. I think the Brewers are still looking for a veteran 3b, and this makes more sense than trading in their own division to get Scott Rolen from the Cardinals. Figure Beane will bide his time with Blanton and he has enough suitors that he can sit back and wait for someone to come to him with a deal.