Fantasy Basketball Market Watch - 3/4/2008

This edition of Fantasy Basketball Market Watch is an ode to the guards. We highlight some winners and losers from the February trading frenzy as well as some young players on the rise.

Upgrades

Vince Carter, SF New Jersey Nets - Jason Kidd gets traded, implies Vince Carter's lethargic/uninspired play is the reason and suddenly Vinsanity is diving for lose balls and filling up the stat sheet. In the 7 games since Kidd was traded in mid-February, Carter is averaging around 22 points, 7 rebounds and 5 rebounds to go along with nearly 2 steals and three pointers a game. Sporting a little chip on his shoulder, he could be a pretty solid all-around contributor down the stretch as long as he doesn't turn back into "fade away jumpshot Vince."

Devin Harris, PG New Jersey Nets - Speaking of the Kidd Trade, the point guard the Nets got from the Mavs also appears quite motivated to win over the Jersey faithful. Harris who missed three weeks with a sprained ankle made a sparkling debut with the his new club putting up 21 points and 5 assists in only 20 minutes. He then followed up that performance with another 21 point outing against the Spurs on Sunday. It appears Lawrence Frank is going to give Harris a lot more offensive freedom then he received from the overly anal Avery Johnson in Dallas and this should lead to more points and three pointers without effecting his already solid assist and steal numbers.

Travis Diener, PG/SG Indiana Pacers - With Jamal Tinsley out, Diener (a former Desperation Station candidate) is making the most of the additional playing time. The Marquette star has put up some solid number over the past week averaging 15 points and 8 assists over his last 3 games. Diener averaged 30+ minutes a night over the month of February and is beginning to come into his own as a point guard. He is an adept three point shooter and can help fantasy owners in points, assists, three pointers and FT%.

Mike Bibby, PG Atlanta Hawks - Bibby is looking more and more comfortable in Atlanta with each passing game and is coming off a big week. Over his last 3 games in which the Hawks went 2-1, Bibby averaged 16 points, 10 assists, 2 three pointers and a steal. The Hawks are in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff hunt and Bibby is a proven veteran point guard who has been there before. Given the talent surrounding him in Atlanta and the fact he will log big minutes leading a somewhat wide open offense, Bibby is an excellent under the radar trade candidate who can be a difference maker down the stretch.

Downgrades

Jose Calderon, PG Toronto Raptors - 14.5 points and 9.5 assists - that is what Calderon averaged running the point for the Raptors over the last two months in TJ Ford's absence. Yet since Ford's return 6 games ago, Calderon has seen his playing time dip under 30 minutes and his averages drop to 8.5 points and a shade under 7 assists. Guess the Raptors don't believe in the old concept of if it isn't broke don't fix it. Going forward, Ford will continue to see 20-25 minutes a night and cut into Calderon's playing time. You certainly shouldn't drop Calderon, but his numbers won't reach January/February levels with Ford in the mix.

Marcus Williams, PG New Jersey Nets - Williams' 5 game run as the unquestioned starter at point guard is over with Devin Harris back from injury. Williams put up some solid numbers while Harris was out averaging around 12 points, 7 assists, 2 three pointers and a steal a night. Frank might choose to continue to starting Williams to allow Harris to play off the ball more and maximize his scoring ability. However if Saturday night's game against the Spurs is any indication of what's to come, Harris should log around 30-35 minutes a game while Williams plays 20 minutes; producing modest point and assist totals.

Fantasy Basketball Market Watch - 2/19/2008

The first half of arguably the best NBA season in the last 15 years is behind us and tonight begins the 30 game push to the playoffs. On Saturday, we took a look back at the First Half Fantasy Basketball All-Stars and highlighted the best players at each position through 52 games.

In this edition of Market Watch, we focus on the guys who are entering the second half hot or have experienced increases in fantasy value due to the myriad of trades featuring superstar-caliber players.

UPGRADES

Simply Red Hot

Monta Ellis, PG/SG Golden State Warriors - Monta Ellis' thus far in February have made him as this week's Market Watch poster boy. In his last 5 games dating back to February 1st, Ellis is averaging 27.8 points, 6 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 1.2 steals a game while shooting a ridiculous 69% from the field; all well above his season averages. In addition, Ellis has two 30+ point scoring games during this span. He had only three games over 30 points entering the month. Ellis appears to be fully established as the starting shooting guard alongside Baron Davis and with Mickael Pietrus toiling away in the dog house and demanding trades, it appears Ellis should continue to see big minutes with little competition.

Larry Hughes, PG/SG Cleveland Cavaliers - The man who was so bad it caused a group of Cavs fan to create a website called HeyLarryHughesPleaseStopTakingSoManyBadShots.com (It's a real site, check it out!) has enjoyed sweet redemption in the month of February. In his last 6 games dating back to February 5th, Hughes is averaging over 21 points, 5 rebounds and 2 three pointers a game while shooting a much-improved 47% from the field. Hughes has been especially hot in his past two games putting up 40 and 26 points in consecutive games. The Cavs need Hughes to continue his strong play and serve as a legitimate second option to Lebron. The recent trade of Mike Bibby to Atlanta exasperates that point as the trade market is now a bit devoid of good offensive options.

Peja Stojakovic, SG/SF New Orleans Hornets - Peja is like your classic fantasy three point gunner on crack. Peja ranks third in the NBA in three pointers made with 139; however, his output has come in on 46 games compared to Rashard Lewis and Jason Richardson who needed 53 games to accumulate 143 and 150 3s respectively. In fact, 56% of Peja's point production has come solely from three pointers. He is enjoying his finest month in February, putting up season highs across the board averaging over 22 points, 5 rebounds and a stellar 4 three pointers in his last 6 games. Peja's fantasy strengths are clearly scoring and three pointers; however, he can also contribute in rebounds, steals and FT % (shooting 93% on the season). The young Hornets will continue to lean on Peja for scoring from beyond the arc to stretch defenses and if he stays healthy 20 points and 3+ three pointers a game are good bets.   

It Was Great Playing With You... Need Help With Your Bags?

Beno Udrih, PG Sacramento Kings - The departure of Mike Bibby allows Udrih to regain the starting point guard spot in Sacramento. Beno flourished early in the season, averaging around 14 points and 5 assists along with around 1 steal and three pointer. Bibby's return in January derailed Beno's season, sending him back to the bench and killing his fantasy value. Expect numbers similar to what he was averaging when getting 30+ minutes on a consistent basis the rest of the way. For more analysis on the Bibby trade, click here.

Raja Bell, SG Phoenix Suns - With Shawn Marion attempting to establish himself as "the man" in Miami rather than trying to win a championship in Phoenix, Raja Bell should become a bigger part of the Suns' offense in the second half, especially from behind the three point stripe. Bell has seen more minutes since Marion left, averaging nearly 40 minutes a night and with the added playing time has come a marginal increase in production. The upgrade of Bell is based more on my personal opinion rather than statistical analysis but I feel Raja has a chance to see a rise in his production to 15+ points and 3 three pointers a game making him a strong option down the stretch. Bell can also contribute in rebounds, steals and FT% (shooting 93% on the season).

DOWNGRADES

Boris Diaw, PF/C Phoenix Suns - In contrast to Mr. Bell, the arrival of Shaq will take away playing time from Diaw, dropping his minutes to under 30 minutes a game. Diaw has already had a subpar season, failing to average double digits in points and putting up mediocre rebounding and assist numbers. Diaw's production won't improve with the Diesel manning the middle and taking away offensive touches.

Zydrunas Ilgauskas, C Cleveland Cavaliers - The Z-train is having a good season averaging a career high in rebounds while putting up good numbers in scoring and blocks. Unfortunately, back spasms have slowed down the big guy in February. He has seen his minutes drop over the past 5 games in which he is averaging only 8.5 points and 7 rebounds, well below his season averages. As long as Z is hobbled by his back, his production will suffer and the possibility will persist he could miss some time.

Fantasy Basketball Market Watch - 2/9/2008

This week, we saw the second blockbuster deal of the NBA trade season as the Miami Heat sent Shaquille O'Neal to Phoenix in exchange for Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks. As the February 21st trade deadline approaches, you can expect several more moves as teams like the Dallas Mavericks try to keep up with the Joneses out west and Cleveland desperately attempts to get King James some help. 

This edition of Market Watch serves as a prelude to the trading frenzy featuring a few players benefitting from completed deals while others gain motivation from trade rumors and vise versa.

UPGRADES

Darko Milicic, PF/C Memphis Grizzlies - Oh Darko, just when I was out you pull me back in! The biggest beneficiary of the Pau Gasol trade wasn't Hakim Warrick but rather the former #2 overall pick. Darko is now seeing 30+ minutes a game and averaging a double-double with over 10 points, 11 rebounds and 2 blocks a game in the 4 games since Gasol was dealt to LA. With Memphis entrenched in tank mode coupled with the recent trade of Stromile Swift and rumors of a Mike Miller deal, there will be plenty of playing time for Milicic in a thin Memphis frontcourt. Barring injury, he should be an excellent source blocks and rebounds going forward.

Thabo Sefolosha, SG/SF Chicago Bulls - Sefolosha has actually been starting and getting 30+ minutes since mid-January; however, he had not made a believer of me until recently. Sefolosha appears he has engrained himself as the Bulls starter in the backcourt or at small forward regardless of Ben Gordon and Kirk Hinrich being available to play. The team has been prospering with Sefolosha on the floor as he can score and rebound on offense while playing solid defense. Thabo has the ability to contribute across a variety of fantasy categories including points, rebounds, steals and even blocks. In addition, if Sefolosha continues to see time in the backcourt, he is capable of putting up 4-5 assists although it may reduce his points.

Mo Williams, PG Milwaukee Bucks - Williams enjoyed a big week averaging 27 points and nearly 7 assists to go along with  2 three pointers and a gaudy assist/turnover ratio. He has quietly had an excellent season putting 17.3 points, 6.6 assists and 1+ three pointers and steals. With Yi and Bobby Simmons missing time with injury, Williams is the only legitimate scoring option outside of Andrew Bogut and fantasy owners should see an increase in his points, assists and three pointers. 

Andre Miller, PG Philadelphia 76ers - There are an abundance of trade rumors swirling around the veteran point guard that have him being shipped to a contender before the trade deadline. Accordingly, Miller has raised his game and trade value of late, putting together a superb start to the month of February averaging 21 points, 9.5 assists and 4+ rebounds a game over his last 4 games; all above his season averages. A healthy Miller on a good team can be an excellent fantasy contributor in points and assists while seriously raising a fantasy team's assist/turnover ratio. Keep an eye on where Miller ends up as I have a feeling his days in Philly are numbered.

Andrea Bargnani, SF/PF/C Toronto Raptors - The 2006 #1 overall pick has been doing work in the first week of February averaging 21 points, 5 rebounds and 2+ three pointers a game in the last 3 games. Bargnani has been starting since late December; however, his playing time has been inconsistent due to the Raptors depth in the frontcourt. An injury to Kris Humphries and the benching of the ineffective Rasho Nesterovic have opened up ample playing time for Bargnani as a non-traditional center in the Toronto lineup. Bargnani has seen 33+ minutes in each of his last 4 games and will continue to be an excellent offensive contributor as long as he plays adequate minutes. 

DOWNGRADES

John Salmons, SG/SF Sacramento Kings - This downgrade is a long time coming. Salmons had a great start to the 2007-2008 season but since the return of Mike Bibby in mid-January he has seen a reduction in playing time and his output has suffered. For a time Salmons playing time was down to 20 minutes a game; however, over the last week he is once again seeing 30+ minutes. Unfortunately, there aren't enough balls to go around in Sacramento with Ron Artest Mike Bibby and Kevin Martin returning and Brad Miller playing at a high level offensively. Salmons is establishing himself as the team's 6th man but won't be a consistent fantasy contributor again until one of the King's starters, persumably Mike Bibby, is traded.

Kyle Lowry, PG Memphis Grizzlies - Lowry had a good two week run as starting point guard following an injury to Mike Conley Jr. However, Conley returned last night and as expected Lowry's playing time was greatly diminished going from nearly 40 minutes a night over the last 5 games to merely 14 minutes. The return of Conley coupled with the arrival of Javaris Crittenton via the Gasol trade should make Lowry a fantasy afterthought for the forseeable future. 

Fantasy Basketball Market Watch - 2/1/2008

Welcome to the second installment of Market Watch which takes a comprehensive look at the fantasy basketball landscape over the past week to determine players worthy of upgrades and downgrades.

In this edition, we have quite a few upgrades including two Fantasy Ballers On The Brink who have officially arrived, old friends missing in action since November, an all-star snub and a guy who plays hard under self-fulfilling circumstances. 

UPGRADES

1. Kirk Hinrich PG, Chicago Bulls - In the three seasons proceeding this one, Kirk Hinrich has been a model of consistency. He has put up solid point guard numbers averaging around 16 points, 6 assists, 2 three pointers and 1+ steals while maintaining a strong FT%. With high hopes surrounding the Bulls when the season began, many fantasy owners believed Hinrich would make the leap this year. Unfortunately, the first three months of the season were unkind to him as his numbers have been down across the board making him one of the bigger disappointments in the first half. Since the injuries to Ben Gordon and Luol Deng in mid-January, Hinrich has been juvenated and has put up some serious numbers over the last two weeks. He is averaging 22.7 points and 7 assist a game including his first two 30+ point outbursts of the season. Hinrich looks like he has turned the corner and could be in for a good second half that is reflective of his past numbers. Deng's prolonged absence adds to Hinrich's value.

2. Randy Foye PG, Minnesota Timberwolves - Another guy that has been missing since the season began in November only he has a much better excuse. A stress reaction in his kneecap forced the second year point guard to miss the first 43 games. He returned Tuesday playing limited minutes off the bench against the Bulls, scoring 11 points in 17 minutes. It will take a few games for Foye to get back into game shape and shake off the rust; however, once he's good to go he should see significant minutes as the starting point guard. Minnesota is headed nowhere and with Foye being a lottery pick last year he will be given every chance to develop. Once he is playing 30+ minutes again Foye can be a solid contributor in points, assists, steals and to a lesser extent threes while shooting a high percentage from the FT line. Look for him to make an impact in the second half of the season.

3. Hedo Turkoglu SG/SF, Orlando Magic - Despite enjoying a career year and putting up Eastern Conference all-star caliber numbers all season long, Turkoglu has gone largely unnoticed and was not selected to play in the big game in New Orleans. Lately, Turkoglu has been playing his best basketball of the season and is coming off a huge 2 week run. In his last 7 games Turkoglu is averaging 24.5 points, 6.6 rebounds, 5 assists and 2 three pointers a contest, scoring 20 or more points in each game. Turkoglu's recent play is hardly a fluke as his skill set is a great fit for Stan Van Gundy's shooter-friendly offense in Orlando. Try to snag Turkoglu now as his second half numbers should improve upon his current output.

4. Rajon Rondo PG, Boston Celtics - Rondo started the year as a sleeper point guard option and soon became overvalued by fantasy owners. After struggling with inconsistent play and injuries in the first three months, Rondo resurfaced on the waiver wire. With the injuries behind him and Kevin Garnett missing time, Rondo is emerging as an excellent fantasy point guard, playing his best basketball of the year. Rondo is a well-rounded fantasy contributor with his greatest assets being his proclivity for stealing the ball and his good rebounding ability; rare among point guards. In his last 6 games, he is averaging 14 points, 6 rebounds and nearly 3 steals a game. His assists are down but he has shown in the past he's a good passer and has the ability to average 5-6/game. 

5. Nate Robinson PG, New York Knicks - The first of two Fantasy Ballers On The Brink who have officially arrived. Nate has thrived in Marbury's absence, receiving around 30 minutes a night in January and averaging 15.7 points, 5 assists, 1 steal and nearly 2 three pointers a game in that time. Robinson is playing more point guard of late and in his last 9 games is averaging close to 7 assists a night with a solid assist/turnover ratio of 3.6. Robinson's minutes will continue to increase in the second half and his output in scoring and assists should benefit. 

6. Al Thornton SF/PF, Los Angeles Clippers - Rounding out the Fantasy Ballers On The Brink, Thornton broke out for 33 points in only 33 minutes on Wednesday night, showing that when given the opportunity to play he can be a serious fantasy contributor. While his game isn't as multi-faceted as some of the other guys on this list, Thornton can do two things well, score and rebound. With the trade deadline rapidly approaching and the Clippers looming at the bottom of the Western Conference, Thornton should get plenty of minutes going forward. Right now is an excellent time to add Thornton as his value should slowly rise and will eventually spike when the following guy is dealt.

7. Tim Thomas SF/PF, Los Angeles Clippers - Is it just me or does Tim Thomas only try when he is playing for a contract or being showcased for a trade to a contender? Well, right now the Clippers are giving him plenty of minutes as they attempt to move him at the deadline and naturally he has responded. Thomas has had some big games over the last week, averaging around 19 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists and a three pointer a game. Thomas should continue his good play as long as he is on the hopeless Clippers but once he is dealt (I guarantee he gets moved before the deadline) all bets are off.

DOWNGRADES

1. Jamal Tinsley PG, Indiana Pacers - Tinsley has been a good fantasy point guard this year flourishing in Jim O'Brien's fast-paced offensive system. He is averaging nearly 9 assists a game to go along with 12 points, 2 three pointers and 1 steal.  Unfortunately, injuries are taking a toll and have forced Tinsley to miss 11 games over the last month and a half. Even when he has played, Tinsley's scoring is way down making him more or less a one dimensional fantasy player only capable of consistently piling up assists. Tinsley's health doesn't look to be improving and he will continue to be a risky play on a nightly basis going forward.

2. Sebastian Telfair PG, Minnesota Timberwolves - One week after we upgraded Bassy we are forced to now downgrade him upon the return of Randy Foye. Without 30+ minutes a night, Telfair will be unable to put up consistent numbers. I'd say he should continue to make fantasy-relevant contributions in assists and steals until the all-star break. After which, Foye should regain his starting role, relegating Telfair to the bench.

3. Eddy Curry C, New York Knicks - Curry has seriously fallen out of favor in New York and is no longer seeing consistent minutes over 25 minutes. Curry is a one dimensional fantasy player at best, as he has the potential to provide double-digit scoring totals. However, his inability to rebound and block shots coupled with his reduced burn currently make him a non-factor in fantasy circles.

DOUBLE BONUS

• The Denver Nuggets have won 19 consecutive games when Allen Iverson has 10 or more assists.
• Shaq was not selected to the all-star team this year ending a streak of 14 straight appearances. 

Market Watch - Fantasy Basketball 1/25/08

FSE is proud to introduce our newest weekly column offering, Market Watch, which will take a look at the past week in each of our fantasy sports - baseball, football and basketball. The column will focus on players whose values we have upgraded and downgraded.

Quite a few upgrades this week due to the numerous injuries to key players around the league. Now, without further ado let's take a look at the fantasy basketball market for the period of 1/17/08 - 1/24/08. 

UPGRADES

1. Kareem Rush - As Pacers head coach Jim O'Brien has fallen deeper and deeper in love with smaller lineups, the better Rush's number have become. After a slow start to the season where he saw limited game action, Rush has worked his way into the Pacers regular starting backcourt. In the month of January, Rush is averaging nearly 14 points a game with over 2 three pointers and 1 steal. With Jermaine O'Neal out and Jamal Tinsley missing time on almost a regular basis with an assortment of injuries, Rush should get at least 30 minutes a night for the foreseeable and could actually build upon his current output.

2. Sebastian Telfair - Quietly, Sebastian Telfair has been having a very productive January for fantasy owners. Telfair has been the starting point guard in Minnesota for over a month now and has been receiving legitimate playing time, averaging around 35 minutes a night. In that time Bassy is averaging around 7 assists a night and of late his scoring has picked up, reaching a clip of about 12 points a night. For those owners looking for help in point guard categories such as assists and assist/turnover ratio, Telfair is your man. Just watch out for the impending return of Randy Foye who has begun practicing again and may starting playing again soon.

3. Mark Blount - With Shaq out for at least two weeks and Alonzo Mourning out for the season, that leaves Blount as the only serviceable option at center on the Heat roster. In prior seasons when receiving around 30 minutes a night, Blount has been able to register numbers around 12 points and 6 rebounds. Expect Blount to log around 35 minutes a night for the depleted Heat with the potential to average around 15 points and 7 rebounds a night. If that's not an indication of how bad the Heat are right now then I don't know what to tell you.

4. Joakim Noah - We fully documented Noah's rising value earlier today in a post regarding the impact of Luol Deng's injury. Give it a look.

5. Linas Kleiza - Kleiza had begun putting up big scoring numbers even before Carmelo Anthony went down with what appears a somewhat severe ankle sprain. Over his last 4 games, all of which he played 34 or more minutes, he is averaging 23.5 points a game including a 41 point outburst against Utah. With regular playing time Kleiza can help fantasy owners in scoring, rebounding (averaging 5 a game in January) and three pointers. Kleiza has become a favorite of George Karl so he should get minutes whether Anthony starts or not. However, if Melo were to miss extended time it will certainly help Kleiza's cause.

DOWNGRADES

1. Darko Milicic - As a very patient Darko owner (I've consistently owned him since the draft) I am here to tell you that it might be time to cut ties with the Yugoslavian prince rather than wait for him to come around. Darko had a good start to the season, showing promise with solid efforts in his first eight games. However, various injuries have forced Milicic to miss eight games since then while leaving several other contests early. In January, Darko has put up one double-double, marking the only time he has reach double digits in either points or rebounds. In addition, the fantasy stat category which has been Darko's strength, blocks, has slipped terribly of late. Until Darko once again establishes a consistent role in Memphis, I would look to the waiver wire for an alternative.

2. Beno Udrih - Beno has been a pleasant surprise this season, putting up solid point guard numbers for Sacramento averaging 13.4 points and 4.5 assists. Unfortunately, the return of Mike Bibby to the starting lineup has relegated Udrih to the bench and cut his playing time in half. To his credit, Udrih has put up some admirable scoring numbers in limited time. However, Udrih's assist totals are down and in the King's last game he failed to score in 17 minutes of play. While Beno's value is down right now, if the Kings were to trade Mike Bibby as has been wildly rumored Udrih would once again be a solid fantasy option. 

3. Yi Jianlian - Yi had a solid December averaging over 12 points and 6 rebounds a game; however, January has been unkind to the Chairman. His scoring and rebounding averages have dipped to 8 points and 5 rebounds while his minutes have become more inconsistent. Yi still has a lot of potential going forward, but if you can find a better option until the Bucks stop playing musical chairs with their frontcourt's playing time, go for it.