Fantasy Ballers On The Brink - Sean Williams

There's a good chance you only know Sean Williams as the troubled kid out of Boston College that the Nets took a chance on with the 17th pick in the 2007 NBA Draft. Soon enough however, more people are going to know Williams for his play on the court, specifically his freakish ability on the defensive end.

Like many rookies, Williams' numbers have been up and down this season due in large part to the inconsistency in the minutes he receives. Williams has actually been starting for over a month (since December 18th to be exact) and has put up serviceable numbers of 8.6 points, 6.4 rebounds and an excellent 2.2 blocks in that time. Unfortunately, in those starts he is only averaging 24 minutes a night due to a combination of foul trouble and the play of Josh Boone.

Looking at Williams' numbers from the 9 games this season where he has played 30+ minutes begins to show the potential this kid possesses as a fantasy contributor. In those 9 games Williams is averaging 12.6 points, 7.7 rebounds and a ridiculous 3.6 blocks per contest. In only 21 minutes a night this season, Williams is still maintaining a 2 blocks/game average, thus 3+ blocks/game is a distinct possibility if he is given 30+ minutes on a more consistent basis.

To put Williams block numbers into perspective, only three players - Marcus Camby, Josh Smith and Chris Kaman - are averaging 3 or more blocks a game this year. Further, stud fantasy centers and renowned shot blockers like Dwight Howard and Amare Stoudamire are putting up 2.6 and 2.4 blocks a night respectively. It is important to remember that all of the aforementioned players are averaging 35-40 minutes a night, nearly twice as much as Williams.

With the return of Nenad Kristic a week or so away, Williams playing time may remain stationary in the short-term. However, As the Nets continue to struggle and the Kidd trade rumors pick up steam, there is a good chance that Williams, who the Nets see as a future building block, will be given more playing time later on in the season. Having already cracked the starting rotation and exhibited discernible talent, the only place for Williams to go is up this season. Keep a close eye on his playing time if Kidd is finally dealt.

In the meantime, Williams' gritty defensive-oriented style is a better complement to Kristic's game than Boone. Thus, he should continue to see over 20 minutes a night, keeping him fantasy-relevant for owners looking to bolster blocks and add rebounding to their roster.

Fantasy Baller On The Brink: Al Thornton

Entering the 2007 draft, I felt Florida State Forward Al Thornton was the most NBA-ready player outside of the draft's consensus top three picks - Greg Oden, Kevin Durant and Al Horford -and a guy who could make an immediate impact given the right situation. Thornton slipped to the Clippers at 14 mostly because of his age (he's 24) and as such his lack of, you guessed it, "upside." I hope the Kings enjoy #10 pick Spencer Hawes, the reincarnation of Bryant Reeves AKA Big Country, as their slow, white center of the future. Sometimes I wonder how many drafts the phrase "can't teach size" has sunk...

Anyway, after getting off to a slow start due to a lack of playing time, (the Clips were hot early and playing their vets) Thornton is starting to come on. Over his last seven games Thornton is averaging 14.7 points and 5.3 rebounds a game. More importantly, he meets the two requirements I established in a previous post aimed at helping managers identify young players that are add-worthy rather than a tease. Speaking of which, check out Nate Robinson's game log and if you haven't already, go ahead and pick him up. His production is no fluke.

Requirement One - Consistently Playing 25 minutes/game

Thornton has started 6 0f the Clippers last 7 games. He has eclipsed the golden 25 minutes/game mark 5 times and is averaging a solid 31 minutes a night over that span. A telling stat regarding Thornton's offensive production relative to his playing time can be found in the 7 games Thornton played at least 25 minutes. In those contests, he has scored in double figures 6 times and had 5 or more rebounds 5 times.

Requirement Two - Will maintain/expand current role going forward because team is losing OR on the verge of trading veteran players.

If you haven't noticed, the Clippers are a bad team (currently standing at 10-22) with no plans of contending right now especially as their best player, Elton Brand, recovers from a ruptured left achilles - his return this season remains questionable. As such, the Clippers have been giving more and more minutes to Thornton rather than the mediocre vets (See: Tim Thomas, Cuttino Mobley and Brevin Knight) who are now relegated to the bench. As further reassurance for fantasy owners, since Corey Maggette's return from injury 2 weeks ago, Thornton has continued to get starts alongside the former Duke star. This is big because outside of Brand, Maggette would be the biggest threat to Thornton's playing time.

Going forward, I don't see why Thornton couldn't put up around 16 points and 6 rebounds a night with the potential of adding to those totals as the season progresses. His playing time should remain consistent or increase with the only real threat to his value being the return of Elton Brand to the starting lineup, which I doubt we'll see anytime soon.

So friends feel free to pick up Thornton now. He will be a nice addition to your bench as we inch closer to playoff time.

Fantasy Baller On The Brink: It's A Boone Town

I think it is time to start calling Josh Boone a legitimate fantasy center. A month ago this did not seem like a tangible idea. The Nets were an inconsistent team, Boone was on the Nets' bench, and stuck behind Jason "Twin" Collins and Nenad Kristic for playing time, and rumors were swirling that Jason Kidd wanted out of New Jersey. The team seemed destined to implode. A funny thing happened on the way to implosion.

Nets head coach Lawrence Frank started to go with a more youthful line up. Kristic's surgically repaired knee still needed more time to heal and Frank benched Jason Collins and began to start Boone on a consistent basis. I can guess Frank realized what fantasy owners have know for years, Jason Collins is as useful as a lampshade. The move has not only meant more playing time for Boone, but it has also rejuvenated the Nets season.

He has been averaging a little under a double- double over the last 2 weeks, and I believe he will continue to get stronger as a player while he acclimates to the new starting gig. There are a bunch of things working for Boone to his advantage.
1) There is no pressure on him. With Vince Carter, Richard Jefferson, Jason Kidd and Bostjan Nachbar on the court at any time, there is going to be a lot of double teaming going on. Meaning that Boone could get a lot of open looks under the basket. Dare I say it, Boone will go under the radar of most teams, when preparing to face the Nets.
2) He plays along side Jason Kidd. Jason Kidd makes everyone he plays around better. It is that simple. Seriously think of the NJ Nets before Kidd got there. They were the Clippers East. Kenyon Martin, Keith Van Horn, Stephon Marbury, 0 results. Then, the trade of Marbury for Kidd changed everything, and turned the Nets from perennial losers, to a perennial power house in the East. Quiet simply; Josh Boone will continue to get better because Jason Kidd is too good to let him play poorly.
3) He is their starting center. This is important to remember, there is no one waiting in the wings to replace him if he plays poorly. Lawrence Frank has showed many times his insistence to sticking with his guys, to a near fault at times. In this case, going with the younger, more athletic Boone is the right choice. Believe me, Jason Collins is not going to get any more big minutes any time soon.

My suggestion is to grab Boone now. If you feel like you have a better option, stash Boone on your bench, and keep an eye on what he is doing. By the end of the season, as he becomes more experienced, and he gets more acclimated to his teammates and his increased minutes, I think Boone can become a 13point, 12 rebound, 1 block a night guy.

Fantasy Ballers On The Brink: Louis Williams & Nate Robinson

This time of year, the fantasy basketball waiver wire is about as barren as the trees outside. Normally, the vast majority of breakout players and injury beneficiaries are snatched up quickly in the first two months of the season. The next wave of impact guys come later in the season, February and beyond, as a result of deadline trades, late season injuries/precautionary shutdowns and tanking for draft purposes.

Thus, the best way to go about adding players this time of year is to project forward rather than adding the flavor of the week which can result in a never-ending carousel of mediocrity on your roster. I like to look for talented young guys whose playing time has been steadily rising and/or are one move away from seeing increased burn. Once a player is averaging 25 minutes/game or more, than they will have the opportune amount of playing time to contribute on a consistent basis. There is nothing more frustrating then adding a young guy who looks great one night and like Jared Jeffries the next.

These players normally reside on bad teams that are close to trading veterans or desperate for a lineup change. Right now, there are two excellent candidates worthy of being added immediately that have not received much notoriety in fantasy basketball circles, yet. Both are on poor to terrible basketball teams and have seen there playing time reach or exceed the 25 minute/game threshold in the past 2 weeks. These two players are Louis Williams of the Philadelphia 76ers and New York Knicks guard Nate Robinson.

Nate is the better candidate right now as he is averaging over 30 minutes a game over the past 2 weeks. He has been posting solid offensive numbers scoring 17.3 points per game along with over 2 three pointers. Nate's energetic style of play could also help fantasy owners in rebounds and steals as well as assists (if he gets decent burn at the point), making him a balanced fantasy contributor.

The Knicks are a team in crisis mode right now and the young guys have been getting extended minutes as a desperate Isiah Thomas attempts to shake things up. Robinson should continue to play 30 minutes or more a night regardless of Stephon Marbury's return to the lineup.

Louis Williams has been playing well lately and has the potential to have a big second half. He is averaging a modest 13 points/game over his last 6 (17.5 a game over his last 3) as his playing time continues to increase, eclipsing 25 minutes a night. Williams' quick hands on defense have allowed him to compile some impressive steal totals as he is averaging nearly 2 per game over the aforementioned 6 game stretch.

Unfortunately, Williams is currently stuck behind Andre Miller at point guard which hurts his value. However, with Billy King gone, new GM Ed Stefanski looks ready to overhaul the roster and shift the Sixers into rebuilding mode as evidenced by the recent trade of Kyle Korver to Utah for an expiring contract and first round pick.

By many accounts Miller appears the next man out of town, probably before the trade deadline to one of several team in search of a veteran PG, making Williams the starting point guard. This would mean big minutes each night, allowing Williams to get more assists and add to his steal and scoring totals. He could be a big difference maker come playoff time.