FSE Draft Strategy Series - Rookie Drafting

At the start of every season, there is a constant debate going on amongst fantasy experts regarding where to rank rookie hitters and pitchers. Here is the policy I use, rarely if ever do I draft a rookie hitter. However, if a player starts in minors and spends a month or so there and gets called up around May/June, then I more seriously assess whether he is worth adding. I got this reasoning when watching "Baseball Tonight" a few years ago and I heard Peter Gammons explain why young players traditionally perform differently than others.

Rookies who start the season in the majors are often overwhelmed a majority of the time out of the gate. Their biggest issues revolve around adjusting to major league pitching and thus have problems with their swing and ultimately confidence. On the other hand, rookies who start the season in the minors generally find themselves a good groove once they are called up. They often display good confident swings and better plate discipline simply because they have been locked in down on the faem and are in a decent place mentally when they are brought up to the majors.

A good example of this was seen among last season's hyped rookie third basemen. Alex Gordon, the most hyped rookie third baseman, started the season in the majors while Ryan Braun (second to Gordon in 3B hype) started the season in the minors. The third impact rookie at third base was Josh Fields an afterthought stuck behind Joe Crede in Chicago early on, spent some time in the minors before being eased into the starting 3B when Crede went down with a back injury.

From the numbers we can see that despite arriving with the most buzz and spending the most time in the majors last season, Gordon has the worst overall numbers of the three. The other two (especially Braun), who spent some time in the minor leagues, fared much better when they were called up producing better power numbers than Gordon.

Rick Ankiel is another example of a player who was called up last year and performed better than many predicted. Many said that Ankiel would struggle as a hitter in the majors, especially with strikeouts, and would not be much of a factor. Ankiel had hit 31 home runs with a .271 batting average in AAA, and upon his arrival to the majors he hit 11 home runs with a .284 batting average in only 172 at bats. This is almost exactly what he had been doing in his time in the minor leagues, and shows how a player can come to the majors confident, with added seasoning and be successful.

Thus, when it comes to drafting rookies, be weary. I would rather pick up a free agent rookie hitter who has had some minor league at bats, rather than draft a guy who will be thrown to the wolves in his first year in the bigs. On draft day, you are more often than naught better off going with the veteran bat as they are more of a proven commodity.

FSE Draft Strategy Series - 20/20 Head-to-Head Drafting Plan

Many believe that drafting for a classic Rotisserie league and drafting for a Head-to-Head league are the exact same thing. That a player's value will remain the same or similar no matter what. I tend to disagree strongly with people who think like this. It is my opinion that in a Head-to-Head league to have a very successful team, you need to have balance of guys who can hit a home run, or steal a base. This is why it is extremely important to stock up on players who can go 20/20 (20 home runs/ 20 stolen bases). A player who can go 20/20 quite simply can give you the threat of a home run, or a stolen base every week while the weeks where they do nothing will be few and far between.

Everything stems from the 20/20 stat in Head-to-Head. If a guy is stealing 20 bases a season, it means he is getting on base (good batting average). If he is hitting 20 home runs it means he is hitting a decent amount of home runs and getting a good amount of RBIs also. Combine both stats and it shows how they can score a solid amount of runs. Remember, I am not saying 1 20/20 guy can make or break your team, you need to commit to the strategy and draft it up and down your line up (Sans 1B and catcher, where the 20/20 options are almost nil). Obviously, it is near impossible to get every single player on your team to go 20/20, which is why you should also be looking for guys who can hit 25home runs with 15 stolen bases. Basically, you want to make sure the guys you are drafting can do a variety of things for your team.

EXAMPLE: STOLEN BASES

Lets say you draft Ichiro Suzuki hoping, as your main source of stolen bases. Last season he finished with a total of 37 stolen bases, pretty good. But, in a head-to-head his numbers could have cost you big time. All totaled in the entire month of April Ichiro had 1 stolen base. All totaled in the entire month of September Ichiro had 1 stolen base. That is 2 months and 2 stolen bases for a guy who you were counting on to lead your team in stolen bases, and both were in critical months. If your main stolen base threat has months like this it can kill you, in that stat category, and can branch off to others. For instance, if a player isn't stealing as many bases, that means he will probably score less runs because he is in scoring position less. It also could mean he is not getting on base enough, which could hurt your batting average.

Example 2: Lets say you draft Juan Pierre as your main source of stolen bases in 2007. All totaled he finished with 67 stolen bases, a very good amount. If you are doing rotisserie, having him will put you in the upper eschelon come season's end. In Head-to-Head, his 5 stolen bases totaled in the month of May could really hurt your team, and cause you to lose a few close match ups.

EXAMPLE: HOME RUNS

Let's say you were fortunate to draft Prince Fielder, in his second full season. He hit 50 home runs last season, and in rotisserie would help any team's season total, be near the top of that league. In Head-to-Head, he was also very good, except for the month of July when he hit 3 home runs. If you were counting for Prince to hit between 6-9 home runs for you, this month he killed you. Chances are, in early July, if you did not own him, you had recently traded for him and given up a whole lot, and got few immediate results.

Another example would be Ryan Howard. Looking for the big slugger, the first round pick, to power your team to early wins in April and May. Well, the big man only hit 3 home runs in April, and if you drafted him with the hopes that he could lead the team in home runs, chances are he did, for the season. But in head-to-head, in the month of April, he could have caused your team to get off to an extremely slow start.

CONCLUSION

A player's stats for your basic rotisserie team, over the course of a season, will all even out. Players who are stolen base threats will get their steals, and sluggers will hit their home runs. This is not the case for a head-to-head league, where your record, and success is judged on a week to week basis. As I stated earlier, you should do your best to draft a team with players who can all do a variety of things. When I draft I make a list of the players I want to have at each spot, and how valuable I think they will be. There are times when I take a player 2-3 rounds too early, just to ensure that I will wind up with him. I like to go into a draft knowing who I want, rather than trying to figure out who I should take; the round shouldn't be the deciding factor.

I plans on putting up a series of position by position draft ranking soon based on the 20/20 strategy. Most of the players who are ranked near the top of regular draft boards will remain the same (Albert Pujols, A-Rod, Chase Utley, Hanley Ramirez/ Jose Reyes), but these are also players who can hit a home run and steal a base, something that I view as being of paramount importance. The rest of the players listed might stray from conventional wisdom and be a bit controversial to some people.

20/20 is a different strategy, but I guarantee the benefits will outweigh the risks.

Looking ahead, future FSE Draft Strategy articles will focus on when to draft rookies and why, the importance at looking at a previous season's second half numbers and why closers are overrated.

The Evolution of "The Hold"

A Hold is credited any time a relief pitcher enters a game in a Save Situation, records at least one out, and leaves the game never having relinquished the lead.

This fantasy stat has become ever more popular over the past decade. I think we have Tony Larussa to blame for this. Maybe it was his infection and his vertigo? This stat makes players like Roberto Hernandez and Mike Myers people you would actually draft. I personally love this statistic in my fantasy league because it allows more players to be drafted with a purpose. In many leagues without "The Hold" there would be no reason to draft people such as Mike Timlin or Scot Shields.

There are many reasons why "The Hold" is important.

1) People like Francisco Rodriguez and Mariano Rivera started off as set up men. These dominant set up men fill the role of injured or retired closers.

2) Many Set up men not only provide good holds numbers, but they can vulture wins as well.

3) Relief pitchers are great for that coveted k/9 category and can help lower ERA and WHIP.

4) Personally, I love the hold because it allows me to draft people like Roberto Hernandez and Troy Percival with a straight face.

5) Lefty specialists are whores for the hold. Mike Myers can come in and get one out and leave, thus producing a hold for you.

6) Finally, Holds guys can always be found on the waiver wire and can help your squad immediately.

Let's take a look at the holds leaders from the last two years:

2007 Holds Leaders

1) Brandon Lyon, Arizona - 35 Holds
Lyon will be the premier middle reliever in a very deep Arizona bullpen. He may have an opportunity the be the closer as well. Keep an eye on the situation during spring training.

2) Heath Bell, San Diego - 34 Holds
The New York Met castaway dominated the late innings for San Diego last season. In 93+ Innings pitches he racked up 103 Strikeouts. The K's and Innings Pitched may be a warning for possible fantasy owners. If he is striking a lot of guys out, that means he is throwing a lot of pitches.

3) Jon Rauch - Washington 33 Holds
Considering this team only wins a few games a year and this guy had 33 Holds, I would wait and wait and wait to pick him up. Many owners picked him off the waiver wire last season and were happy with his results.

4) Derrick Turnbow - Milwaukee 33 Holds
Once a closer and now a set up man. You never know with this guy and maybe the Brew crew will make him a closer again if The Gagne experiment fails. Either way he should be a solid pick and its an added bonus that if Gagne fails, your set up man becomes your closer.

5) Jonathon Broxton - Los Angeles 32 Holds
I think he may be overworked by Joe Torre this season. Torre is notorious for overworking his bullpen and even brought his own personal whipping boy, Scott proctor to LA to throw every game for him. Look for Broxton's arm to fall off by the All-Star Break.

6) Rafael Betancourt - Cleveland 31 Holds
May have a chance to close if "Stunning" Joe Borowski hits a speed bump this season. He has dual value as a set up man and possibly a closer/save vulture.

7) Scot Shields - Anaheim 31 Holds
Reliable reliever, I always try to get him as my first set up man. His body of work merits this and his stuff has only gotten better.

8) Tony Pena- Arizona 30 Holds
Pena is a part of one of the best bullpens in baseball and he has the opportunity to compete for the closer job. Watch his progress in spring training before deciding on him. He and Lyon should get plenty of holds and may steal some saves even if they are not officially the closer.

9) Hideki Okajima - Boston 27 Holds
His team should win 100 games this season and his starters should hand him the ball in the 8th with a lead early and often. Last year Okajima faded after the All-Star Break. Look for his stamina to improve after experiencing a real MLB season. I would take him right after Shields.

10) Ryan Franklin - St. Louis 25 Holds
He is setting up Izzy in St. Louis. This gives Franklin double value, he could be a dominant set up man and also be next in line to close when Izzy goes down.

2006 Holds Leaders:
Now, let's see who the leaders were in 2006. See if you can make an inference as to why the stats changed for many and why there was such a turnover among the holds leaders.

1)Scott Linebrink 36 Holds
21 Holds in 2007 and an ERA of 3.71. Not the same dominance he had in 2006, and he could have problems pitching in U.S. Cellular field in 2008.

2) Scot Shields 31 Holds
One of the best set up men in baseball had a solid 2007 season. Shields had 31 holds and is setting up for the premier closer in baseball.

3) Joel Zumaya 30 Holds
Guitar Hero, weak ligaments?

4) Aaron Heilman 27 Holds
Couldn't follow up in 2007 with the same success as he had in 2006.

5)Scott Proctor 26 Holds
I'm surprised his arm is still attached.

6) Juan Rincon 26 Holds
Yuck, 14 holds and an ERA of 5.13.

7) Justin Speier 25 Holds
In 2007, Speier almost duplicated his success from 2006 with 24 Holds and an ERA of 2.80.

8) Luis Vizcaino 25 Holds
In 2007 Luis had an 8-2 record and was a reliable member of the Yankees bullpen. Vizcaino vultured many wins, but only recorded 14 holds.

9) Kiko Calero 24 Holds
In 2007 had a bad shoulder,a bad team, and a bad ERA of 5.75. Calero only recorded one save and was not the same pitcher of the prior year.

10) Dan Wheeler 24 Holds
After his great 2006 season, Wheeler followed up with some save chances because Lidge was awful. Wheeler then gave fantasy owners a 5.30 ERA and a 1-9 record in 2007.

After looking at the data, I believe it is obvious that many of these top relievers have a difficult time having the same success year after year. Many of these pitchers were over used and experienced arm problems. Thus, it's a good idea to look at the trends with these pitchers and the ballparks they call home. Before picking a reliever, check how many innings they threw the year before. Scott Proctor was awesome in 2006, but we all know he threw way too much and that had a negative effect on his stats.