Rumored Kidd 3 Way Trade Will Have Huge Fantasy Implications

The first hot Jason Kidd trade rumor surfaced earlier today and is of the three team variety. Henry Abbot of Truehoop, after reading reports from several sources and conferring with the "ESPN's salary cap people" (probably messing around with the Trade Machine) has outlined the parameters of a deal between the New Jersey Nets, Portland Trailblazers and Dallas Mavericks that works under the cap. This is what Abbot thinks the deal will roughly look like:

Dallas Gets: Jason Kidd from New Jersey and a minimum contract from Portland/New Jersey

Portland Gets: Devin Harris from Dallas and a minimum contract from New Jersey/Dallas

New Jersey Gets: Travis Outlaw, Channing Frye, Jarrett Jack and player/pick from Portland AND Devean George, Jerry Stackhouse, 1-2 low salary players/pick from Dallas.

The motivations of the Nets and Mavs are fairly clear here. Dallas mortages the future, dealing their young, up and coming point guard Devin Harris along with some short-term cap flexibility for a year and a half of J-Kidd.  As soon as this trade goes through, the Mavs step into win-now mode with a 2 year window for a championship.

New Jersey takes the first steps towards getting younger and clearing cap space. Jerry Stackhouse and Devean George both have expiring contracts while Channing Frye and Jarrett Jack are eligible to come off the books after next season clearing ample cap space heading into the summer of 2009. 

In Travis Outlaw the Nets get an affordable 23 year old small forward who has steadily improved as the season has wore on and is currently averaging 15.5 point and 5 rebounds a game in the month of January. In addition, Outlaw's presence will more smoothly facilitate a transition if the Nets follow up a Kidd deal with an offseason trade of RJ or Vince (if there are any takers out there). Throw in a draft pick or 2 and this is nice haul for the Nets.

At first glance, Portland's reasoning for participating in this 3-way trade is not apparent. However, Abbot raised a good point about Portland being on the verge of opening next season with 22 players on the team and only 15 roster spots. Thus, this deal would serve the dual purpose of solidifying the point guard position while shedding some bodies in preparation for 2008. Let's take a look at the players being traded on Portland's end: 

Jarrett Jack: The addition of Devin Harris immediately makes Jarrett Jack expendable with Steve Blake and Sergio Rodriguez in place as solid back up point guard options. 

Channing Frye: Frye has some potential but is currently averaging about 18 minutes a night and with Greg Oden on the horizon, his playing time could dip further. 

Travis Outlaw: The loss of Outlaw, a key to the Blazers success on both ends this season, will hurt. However, the combination of young sharp shooter Martell Webster and veteran James Jones should adequately offset Outlaw's absence. Essentially, Outlaw's youth, upside and reasonable contract (owed four million per year over the next 3) is the player that makes this deal happen on the Nets end.

Most importantly, in Devin Harris Portland gains a point guard that is an ideal fit for their team going forward. Harris is an excellent defender and provides the Blazers with a true floor general who can prosper in half court sets as well as push the tempo. Harris is also a good complement to Brandon Roy who will be able to play off the ball more and expand his offensive game.

FANTASY IMPACT

This is a deal that features a lot of players moving to new teams. Thus, the fantasy impact of thedeal will reverberate throughout each roster.

New Jersey Nets

The departure of Kidd immediately opens the door for 2006 first round pick Marcus Williams to become the Nets starter. Williams is an excellent passer and has shown that he is more than capable of running the Nets offense when Kidd is not on the floor. Playing starter minutes, Williams will be a double digit assist threat on a nightly basis and can also contribute in points and steals. 

The arrivals of Outlaw and Frye will create a logjam in the frontcourt. The Nets already have several young forwards including FSE favorite sons Sean Williams and Josh Boone vying for minutes at the PF and C slots. With Nenad Kristic set to return in a week or so, it will be interesting to see how the playing time is distributed. 

As for the remaining pieces in the deal, Jarrett Jack will serve as a backup to Williams and will most likely have limited value in New Jersey. Jerry Stackhouse might see some backup minutes while Devean George is most likely looking at a buyout.

Portland Trailblazers

I feel that Devin Harris' value is unchanged by a move to Portland and he remains a solid point guard option. Playing in a bit of a more up tempo style in Dallas, Harris was putting up 15 points a game to go along with 5 assists and 1+ steals. While his scoring numbers may decline a point or 2, the Blazers will rely on him plenty as the primary ball handler and he should increase his assist totals to over 6 a contest. In addition, the departure of Travis Outlaw will open up a starting spot for Martell Webster who has the ability to help a fantasy team in points and three pointers if given adequate playing time.

Dallas Mavericks

Jason Kidd instantly makes Dallas better in the short-term and his arrival should increase the offensive outputs of Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard. Dallas' new big 3 will prosper together and Kidd should enjoy a small boost in his numbers as Avery Johnson's offensive system is a good match for his skill set and he will surrounded by a more talented group of scorers. 

Fantasy Ballers On The Brink - Sean Williams

There's a good chance you only know Sean Williams as the troubled kid out of Boston College that the Nets took a chance on with the 17th pick in the 2007 NBA Draft. Soon enough however, more people are going to know Williams for his play on the court, specifically his freakish ability on the defensive end.

Like many rookies, Williams' numbers have been up and down this season due in large part to the inconsistency in the minutes he receives. Williams has actually been starting for over a month (since December 18th to be exact) and has put up serviceable numbers of 8.6 points, 6.4 rebounds and an excellent 2.2 blocks in that time. Unfortunately, in those starts he is only averaging 24 minutes a night due to a combination of foul trouble and the play of Josh Boone.

Looking at Williams' numbers from the 9 games this season where he has played 30+ minutes begins to show the potential this kid possesses as a fantasy contributor. In those 9 games Williams is averaging 12.6 points, 7.7 rebounds and a ridiculous 3.6 blocks per contest. In only 21 minutes a night this season, Williams is still maintaining a 2 blocks/game average, thus 3+ blocks/game is a distinct possibility if he is given 30+ minutes on a more consistent basis.

To put Williams block numbers into perspective, only three players - Marcus Camby, Josh Smith and Chris Kaman - are averaging 3 or more blocks a game this year. Further, stud fantasy centers and renowned shot blockers like Dwight Howard and Amare Stoudamire are putting up 2.6 and 2.4 blocks a night respectively. It is important to remember that all of the aforementioned players are averaging 35-40 minutes a night, nearly twice as much as Williams.

With the return of Nenad Kristic a week or so away, Williams playing time may remain stationary in the short-term. However, As the Nets continue to struggle and the Kidd trade rumors pick up steam, there is a good chance that Williams, who the Nets see as a future building block, will be given more playing time later on in the season. Having already cracked the starting rotation and exhibited discernible talent, the only place for Williams to go is up this season. Keep a close eye on his playing time if Kidd is finally dealt.

In the meantime, Williams' gritty defensive-oriented style is a better complement to Kristic's game than Boone. Thus, he should continue to see over 20 minutes a night, keeping him fantasy-relevant for owners looking to bolster blocks and add rebounding to their roster.

Johan To The Mets Fantasy Fallout

In the biggest trade this off season, and arguably in a while, the Minnesota Twins have agreed to trade Johan Santana to the Mets for outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey.

FANTASY IMPACT NEW YORK METS

With the New York Mets, expect Johan to win 18-23 games. He will thrive playing in the NL without a DH, playing in a pitcher's ballpark. He will also have the benefit of a rather potent Met offense, which will offer him very good run support. Johan was a round 1 or 2 draft pick before this trade, and going to the Mets only increases his value.

You can also expect a very good rebound season from Pedro Martinez. While he isn't what he used to be, he is still a great 6 inning pitcher, and will now be facing the number 2 starter on most teams. Expect Pedro to possibly miss a start here and there as we are accustomed to seeing, but he is a near shoe in for 15 wins and 190Ks.

FANTASY IMPACT MINNESOTA TWINS

The Twins get 2 pitching prospects in Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey who probably won't see the majors in 2008, so lets move on.

Carlos Gomez should probably play center field for the Twins next season. Expect many growing pains from Gomez, he won't hit for a high average, and his power will be suspect. He can steal a base, and if you can tolerate the weaknesses will be a good source to puck up 30-40sb.

Phil Humber will probably slide into the 5 hole into the rotation, while the rest of the Twins rotation moves up a slot. Humber is not worth drafting or even having on your draft board. In fact if he is on your draft board, throw your draft board away.

Francisco Liriano will move up a slot in the rotation and despite coming back from Tommy John surgery will be counted on to be the ace of a staff. We broke down what to expect from Liriano here.

Boof Bonser will be looked to pick up some slack as well as become the number 2. Bonser in his first full season as a starter had an up and down year for the Twins. He enters this year, with a lot of hype, stirred up by the news that he has lost 20lbs. Bonser has decent stuff, and is worth a late round flier as a sleeper, if he can find consistency and the strike zone.

Scott Baker pitched well for the Twins last season. He took a Perfect game into the 9th inning against the Kansas City Royals last season, giving up a walk to John Buck and then a hit to Mike Sweeney. Baker is a guy who should be a mid-round pick guy, but he will go much later. He is a great sleeper for late in the draft.

Mets Land Johan Santana

Omar Minaya got his ace. MetsBlog is reporting that the Mets have landed Johan Santana for a package of players whose names are being withheld until New York can agree on a contract extension with the left hander.

Buster Olney is reporting that Fernando Martinez was not included in the deal so my guess is the package for Santana contains 4-5 guys among the group of Carlos Gomez, Arron Heilman, Kevin Mulvey, Deolis Guerra, Phil Humber, Mike Pelfrey and Ryan Church.

Once Santana is signed (a formality at this point) the Mets will boast one of the deepest pitching staffs in the National League featuring Santana, Pedro Martinez, John Maine and Oliver Perez. The combination of that staff with a powerful and dynamic lineup make the Mets the team to beat in the National League entering the 2008 season.

UPDATE 4:35 - USA Today reports that the Mets gave up Kevin Mulvey, Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra and Phil Humber in the deal. If this report holds up, this is a steal for the Mets in that they keep their top young pitcher (Mike Pelfrey) and hitter (Fernando Martinez).

Mets Have Santana Edge

Get excited New York Mets fans!! Buster Olney is reporting that according to his sources around baseball, the Mets have made the strongest offer for Johan Santana thus far. With Santana already having rejected the Twins 5 year-100 million dollar offer, it looks like the Mets might be in the drivers seat to land the ace.

Something tells me that once a Santana trade to the Mets is finalized, the happiest people outside of Queens will be situated in the Bronx and Boston respectively.

For our full archive of Santana coverage click here.

Santana Rejects Twins Final Contract Offer

WFAN's Mike Francesa is reporting that Santana recently rejected a 5 year-100 million dollar offer from the Twins which has persumably lead to the club stepping up their efforts to facilitate a trade.

If this news is true, (Francesa tends to be a buzz generating blowhard at times) two things are now all but certain - Santana will be in a new uniform come opening day and will accept nothing less than a 6-7 year extension at around 20 million.

Twins Asked for Final Santana Offers on Monday, End Is In Sight

According to ESPN.com's Buster Olney, the Minnestoa Twins asked all the teams involved in the Johan Santana sweepstakes for their "last and best offers" yesterday. This signals that a Santana trade is nearly upon us, ending months of speculation.

According to reports, the same three teams - New York Mets, Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees - remain in the running for Santana's services. The Mets presumably having the edge as they have a dire need for an ace and have shown the most willingness to include the pieces necessary to get a deal done.

As was proclaimed on FSE earlier in the month, we are confident that the New York Mets will land Santana in the end based primairily on their aforementioned need and deep pockets. This would be a coup for Omar Minaya and make the Mets the odds on favorite to win the National League.

Stay with the Fantasy Sports Experience for breaking developments and trade analysis.

For more of FSE's Santana coverage click here.

Kidd Confirms It's Time To Move On

Jason Kidd, the man who single-handedly brought the Nets from a league embarrassment to a perennial contender has stated he believes his tenure with the Nets is coming to an end. ESPN.com's Ric Bucher is reporting that Kidd said, "Sometimes, when you ride a wave, you get to the end and that's all there is. That's where we are." Kidd confirmed that his agent has been speaking to Nets management about a trade before next month's February 21 deadline.

According to a source, the Denver Nuggets and Dallas Mavericks have already reached out to see what the Nets would want in return for Kidd. The trade could be tricky because the Nets still have decent talent with Richard Jefferson and Vince Carter, along with the developing Josh Boone, Sean Williams and Marcus Williams so any trade would not just be for draft picks in a salary dump, as the Nets could still contend for a playoff spot. Another problem is the Nets are planning to move to Brooklyn in 2010 and would want to have good talent to attract fans, and maybe even steal a few from the Knicks.

FANTASY IMPACT

If the trade happens, it will hurt the value of Jefferson and Carter some, but promising point guard Marcus Williams would be in line for a starting gig and could quickly emerge as a quality fantasy point guard. We will be able to comment more when it becomes clearer who the potential trade partners will be, and what they will be willing to give up. Expect the Nets to ask for a sizable return in exchange for J-Kidd.

Mavs PG Devin Harris Out 2-3 Weeks

The Dallas Mavericks will be without talented young point guard Devin Harris for the next 2-3 weeks due to a bone bruise in his left ankle. The injury comes at a bad time for the Mavs as Jerry Stackhouse is also out for about a week nursing a strained hamstring.

FANTASY IMPACT

Fantasy owners will miss Harris' steady point guard play as he has been enjoying a solid season averaging 14 points, 5 assists and over one steal a night while putting up good FG and FT percentages. The losses of Harris and Stackhouse in the short-term will leave the Mavericks short-handed in the backcourt and scrambling to make up for the nearly 25 points a game the two put up collectively.

Jason Terry, who has been playing off the ball a majority of the season at the 2 guard, will slide down to the point guard position in Harris' absence and should see an immediate rise in his assist numbers. The scoring burden will be placed more heavily on Dallas' big 3 - Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard and the aforementioned Terry - and each should see a rise in points in the short-term.

The Mavs aren't overly deep at guard and will be forced to give more minutes to the artist formerly known as Eddie Jones who is nothing more than a complementary bench piece at this point in his career. One mildly intriguing option on the Mavs bench is third year guard Jose Juan Barea who has shown some flashes of being able to light up the scoreboard with extended minutes.

Barea had a magical night on November 3rd against Sacramento, putting up 25 points and 5 assists while going 4-4 from the 3 point line in a season-high 29 minutes. If Avery Johnson chooses to give the thrice named Puero Rican native some burn, he may be able to provide desperate owners with some contributions in the scoring and three point department.

Of course, my best recommendation for owners attempting to replace Harris is to immediately add Kyle Lowry if he is still available.

Mike Conley Out A Week, Kyle Lowry Will Get His Shot

According to Yahoo!, Memphis Grizzlies rookie point guard Mike Conley is expected to miss a week due to contusions suffered to his chest and rib cage which made him leave Friday's loss to Washington in the third quarter. Conley's injury coupled with the buyout of Damon Stoudamire's contract sometime today leaves scrappy youngster Kyle Lowry as the Grizzlies' starting point guard.

After spelling Conley in the third quarter of Friday's game, Lowry had an excellent all-around game putting up a double-double with 13 points and 10 assists while adding 4 rebounds and 5 steals in 33 minutes of play. Lowry started Saturday night's overtime win against the Clippers proving his Friday numbers weren't a fluke as he scored 21 points with 8 rebounds and 4 assists in 49 minutes of play.

When given the minutes, Lowry has shown he can be a strong fantasy contributor across the board. He is a good fit for Memphis' fast-paced, high scoring style with his speed and ability to quickly get up and down the court. Lowry should have no problem scoring or getting assists with the likes of Rudy Gay, Pau Gasol and Mike Miller surrounding him. In the 13 games where he has played 30+ minutes, Lowry is averaging over 13 points and 5 assists a game.

The true beauty of Lowry's game however, is in his ferocity on the boards and quick hands on defense. In those same 13 games, he is averaging over 5 rebounds and 1 steal a night. Thus, in Kyle Lowry, fantasy owners are getting a point guard who can provide solid contributions across 4 major categories while maintaining a good assist/turnover ratio and shooting a modest 75% from the free throw line.

Personally, I have been waiting a while for Lowry to get his shot as a starter. It disappointed me when the Grizz drafted Mike Conley in the 2007 draft because this meant Lowry would enter the season as a backup or even the third point guard option as Memphis showcased Stoudamire for a trade. Finally, Lowry will get his chance to shine as he is looking at three starts this week -home games against Dallas, Denver and Utah.

Lowry is an excellent add candidate for the coming week and beyond if Conley's return is delayed.

Bedard to the Mariners (NOT) a Done Deal

Many media sources, (including ourselves) reported Sunday night that the deal sending Erik Bedard to the Mariners was a done. Jon Heyman of SI.com explains here that while a deal is close, there is still a lot of internal debate going on for the Orioles, in deciding if they should pull the trigger or not.

This deal looks to be too close not to happen now. Bedard has already come out and stated that he expects to be traded, and Adam Jones certainly thinks he has already been traded.

FANTASY IMPACT

We outlined the impact of this deal a while ago, and are hoping it actually happens for real, soon.

The Evolution of "The Hold"

A Hold is credited any time a relief pitcher enters a game in a Save Situation, records at least one out, and leaves the game never having relinquished the lead.

This fantasy stat has become ever more popular over the past decade. I think we have Tony Larussa to blame for this. Maybe it was his infection and his vertigo? This stat makes players like Roberto Hernandez and Mike Myers people you would actually draft. I personally love this statistic in my fantasy league because it allows more players to be drafted with a purpose. In many leagues without "The Hold" there would be no reason to draft people such as Mike Timlin or Scot Shields.

There are many reasons why "The Hold" is important.

1) People like Francisco Rodriguez and Mariano Rivera started off as set up men. These dominant set up men fill the role of injured or retired closers.

2) Many Set up men not only provide good holds numbers, but they can vulture wins as well.

3) Relief pitchers are great for that coveted k/9 category and can help lower ERA and WHIP.

4) Personally, I love the hold because it allows me to draft people like Roberto Hernandez and Troy Percival with a straight face.

5) Lefty specialists are whores for the hold. Mike Myers can come in and get one out and leave, thus producing a hold for you.

6) Finally, Holds guys can always be found on the waiver wire and can help your squad immediately.

Let's take a look at the holds leaders from the last two years:

2007 Holds Leaders

1) Brandon Lyon, Arizona - 35 Holds
Lyon will be the premier middle reliever in a very deep Arizona bullpen. He may have an opportunity the be the closer as well. Keep an eye on the situation during spring training.

2) Heath Bell, San Diego - 34 Holds
The New York Met castaway dominated the late innings for San Diego last season. In 93+ Innings pitches he racked up 103 Strikeouts. The K's and Innings Pitched may be a warning for possible fantasy owners. If he is striking a lot of guys out, that means he is throwing a lot of pitches.

3) Jon Rauch - Washington 33 Holds
Considering this team only wins a few games a year and this guy had 33 Holds, I would wait and wait and wait to pick him up. Many owners picked him off the waiver wire last season and were happy with his results.

4) Derrick Turnbow - Milwaukee 33 Holds
Once a closer and now a set up man. You never know with this guy and maybe the Brew crew will make him a closer again if The Gagne experiment fails. Either way he should be a solid pick and its an added bonus that if Gagne fails, your set up man becomes your closer.

5) Jonathon Broxton - Los Angeles 32 Holds
I think he may be overworked by Joe Torre this season. Torre is notorious for overworking his bullpen and even brought his own personal whipping boy, Scott proctor to LA to throw every game for him. Look for Broxton's arm to fall off by the All-Star Break.

6) Rafael Betancourt - Cleveland 31 Holds
May have a chance to close if "Stunning" Joe Borowski hits a speed bump this season. He has dual value as a set up man and possibly a closer/save vulture.

7) Scot Shields - Anaheim 31 Holds
Reliable reliever, I always try to get him as my first set up man. His body of work merits this and his stuff has only gotten better.

8) Tony Pena- Arizona 30 Holds
Pena is a part of one of the best bullpens in baseball and he has the opportunity to compete for the closer job. Watch his progress in spring training before deciding on him. He and Lyon should get plenty of holds and may steal some saves even if they are not officially the closer.

9) Hideki Okajima - Boston 27 Holds
His team should win 100 games this season and his starters should hand him the ball in the 8th with a lead early and often. Last year Okajima faded after the All-Star Break. Look for his stamina to improve after experiencing a real MLB season. I would take him right after Shields.

10) Ryan Franklin - St. Louis 25 Holds
He is setting up Izzy in St. Louis. This gives Franklin double value, he could be a dominant set up man and also be next in line to close when Izzy goes down.

2006 Holds Leaders:
Now, let's see who the leaders were in 2006. See if you can make an inference as to why the stats changed for many and why there was such a turnover among the holds leaders.

1)Scott Linebrink 36 Holds
21 Holds in 2007 and an ERA of 3.71. Not the same dominance he had in 2006, and he could have problems pitching in U.S. Cellular field in 2008.

2) Scot Shields 31 Holds
One of the best set up men in baseball had a solid 2007 season. Shields had 31 holds and is setting up for the premier closer in baseball.

3) Joel Zumaya 30 Holds
Guitar Hero, weak ligaments?

4) Aaron Heilman 27 Holds
Couldn't follow up in 2007 with the same success as he had in 2006.

5)Scott Proctor 26 Holds
I'm surprised his arm is still attached.

6) Juan Rincon 26 Holds
Yuck, 14 holds and an ERA of 5.13.

7) Justin Speier 25 Holds
In 2007, Speier almost duplicated his success from 2006 with 24 Holds and an ERA of 2.80.

8) Luis Vizcaino 25 Holds
In 2007 Luis had an 8-2 record and was a reliable member of the Yankees bullpen. Vizcaino vultured many wins, but only recorded 14 holds.

9) Kiko Calero 24 Holds
In 2007 had a bad shoulder,a bad team, and a bad ERA of 5.75. Calero only recorded one save and was not the same pitcher of the prior year.

10) Dan Wheeler 24 Holds
After his great 2006 season, Wheeler followed up with some save chances because Lidge was awful. Wheeler then gave fantasy owners a 5.30 ERA and a 1-9 record in 2007.

After looking at the data, I believe it is obvious that many of these top relievers have a difficult time having the same success year after year. Many of these pitchers were over used and experienced arm problems. Thus, it's a good idea to look at the trends with these pitchers and the ballparks they call home. Before picking a reliever, check how many innings they threw the year before. Scott Proctor was awesome in 2006, but we all know he threw way too much and that had a negative effect on his stats.

Francisco Liriano Fantasy Update

He blew into the major leagues in 2006. A pitcher putting up numbers that made him looks more like his rotation mate Johan Santana than a young rookie fresh into the majors. Just look these numbers:

Innings Pitched 121.0
Starts 16
Wins 12
Losses 3
Strikeouts 144
Era 2.157
Whip 1.00

Then Francisco Liriano started to break down. He made one start in August, and then one more in September and was done. He would need Jommy John surgery on his left throwing arm, and miss all of the 2007 season rehabbing.

Recently Liriano comeback stories have been popping up, like this one today in the St.Paul Pioneer Press. In the story Liriano says that his endurance, and pitch selection are all fine and back to what they were before surgery. He says he is throwing all of his pitches well, and pain free. Another revelation is Liriano saying, that with in the last 2 weeks he has gotten some good velocity back on his fastball, and it throwing 94,95mph. He also claims that all of his pitches have the dominant movement back that helped made him so solid.

FANTASY IMPACT

WOW! LIRIANO IS BACK 100% GO GET HIM! I'll hold off on this reaction for a bit. I do think that Liriano is recovered and took well over a season to rehab and get healthy. I hate it when players rush back from Tommy John surgery, and they are good, and then bad, and up and down and miss a start. A few things Liriano has going against him, is that he could enter the season as the Minnesota ace. The Johan Santana trade rumors look to be nearing an end and Liriano could be looked upon to fill his spot in the rotation. That is a tall order for anyone, let alone a young pitcher, coming back from massive surgery. I also think Liriano will miss the occasional start, with fatigue, but he does have a few things going for him. The first is that he is young, at 24 he still has a lot of life in that arm. Another is that his stuff is so good, he can win with less than his best stuff.

Personally I would take him in the middle rounds around like Joe Blanton and Brad Penny. I would pencil him in for about 13 wins, and 180 strikeouts, even if he does miss a few starts.

I recently posted a blog about Rich Harden and how he s being viewed in his comeback from a variety of injuries. I really like Liriano coming back from his injury more than I do Harden, because Liriano had one thing wrong and it was fixed. Now it is a matter of him making sure he is all the way back and can withstand the rigors of a full season. With Harden it seems like there is always something going wrong, and its not just one thing. He breaks down all over his body and you never know what will go wrong with him next.

Both are young flamethrowers with dynamite stuff, but Liriano is a much better calculated risk.

Johan Santana Trade To Come Within Ten Days... For Real

After almost four months of posturing Charley Waters, columnist for the St. Paul Pioneer Press, is reporting that the trade for Johan Santana might finally be close to getting done. Buster Olney, as usual, does a great job (ESPN.com insiders only, sorry) of breaking down the rumored players in a potential Santana deal and where each teams offers stand. It comes down to the following teams:

New York Yankees

The Yankees need an ace and a lefty, and Santana just happens to be both. That being said, it is unclear if the Yankees still have an offer on the table for Johan. At the Winter Meetings the Yankees had an offer in place built around 21 year old pitching phenom Phil Hughes and centerfielder Melky Cabrera. Recently, however, it has been reported that GM Brian Cashman and co-owner Hal Steinbrenner have talked co-owner Hank Steinbrenner out of investing the young players it would take to get him and the money it would take to sign Santana long term.

If the Yankees want to make a trade with Minnesota they could, they do have the prospects and money. As right now however, it looks like the Yankees are out. Minnesota would have to lower their trade demands for Santana or Santana would have to lower his reported asking price of 7 years and 150 million. As we have reported here before, it looks like the team without any financial constraints has some financial constraints.

Boston Red Sox

Boston had 2 separate deals on the table at one point. One of them built around pitcher Jon Lester, the other was built around speedy centerfielder Jacoby Ellsbury. Olney is reporting today that the Red Sox have pulled Jon Lester off the table, making the Ellsbury one the best deal on the table. Minnesota does need a centerfielder, but this looks like too little for the Twins to take in a trade for Santana.

It looks like what most of Boston has done in these trade talks is just make sure the Yankees would have to give up a ton if they were to trade for Santana. Boston already has a very good 1-3 with Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Curt Schilling. This does not even include Clay Buchholz who threw a no hitter last season, or veteran Tim Wakefield. The Red Sox getting Santana would have added another ace to an already deep pitching rotation, that they really do not need.

New York Mets

The Mets do not have the best player or prospect to offer in an trade. They are probably willing to offer the most depth, and will give up the most to land Santana. The Mets need an ace to help the shoulder the load from Pedro Martinez, who pitched admirably down the stretch for the Mets last season, but is no longer the innings eating, dominant ace he was in his prime.

The Mets would have to include Fernando Martinez for the Twins to even consider making a deal with the Mets. But as I said, the Mets have the need, and the Mets have money to spend for him. The Mets are the most desperate team in need of Santana. The Mets only have another 1-2 good seasons left in Pedro Martinez, and having the Santana and Martinez would give the Mets one of the most dominant top of the rotation tandems in all of baseball. The Mets are also coming off of one of the most historic late season collapses in all of baseball history. The Mets were sitting pretty atop the NL East with a 7 game lead with 17 games left to play. Then, the collapse happened and the Mets wound up missing the playoffs. Some blamed manager Willie Randolph. Yet, many held GM Omar Minaya accountable for not making moves to strengthen the Mets and their needs at the trade deadline. Look for Omar to make the right move this time and land Johan

Seattle Mariners

Have not been named in any published report for Santana, but I think a trade here makes sense. One person did comment to me that th Mariners, are not a team that is willing to make a high profile move like this, but I feel it is fun to speculate anyway. I outline a potential trade and other stuff here.

BOTTOM LINE

The Twins really overplayed their hand here. The Twins were banking on the Yankees and Red Sox to constantly one up each other for Santana. However, both teams have decided to stay with what they have, and not invest the prospects and money long term. It looks like the Mets will be last team standing as we have previously reported here. There are even rumors circulating that Santana has been hurt and is hiding an injury, and that is making teams hesitant to make a deal for him.

FANTASY IMPACT

With the New York Mets, expect Johan to win 18-23 games. He will thrive playing in the NL without a DH, playing in a pitcher's ballpark. He will also have the benefit of a rather potent Met offense, which will offer him very good run support. Johan was a round 1 or 2 draft pick before this potential trade, if he goes to the Mets his value only increases.

Fantasy Basketball Desperation Station - 1/27/08

Welcome to Desperation Station, your weekly destination for stopgap fantasy basketball options to get you through the week. Check out this column every weekend to get you prepared for the fantasy matchup ahead. 

Guard:

Jannero Pargo - PG, New Orleans Hornets

Pargo has had a good week averaging around 15 points and 4 assists a night. An adept scorer, Pargo put up serviceable numbers last season when he started in place of an injured Chris Paul. January marks the first month Pargo has averaged over 20 minutes a night this season as his solid play has made him one of the first guys off of Byron Scott's bench. He has responded to the increased burn putting up nearly 12 points a game along with 4 assists, a steal and a three pointer this month. Pargo is a decent option for fantasy owners looking for help in points and three pointers; some contributions in assists and steals are also possible. 

Forwards & Centers:

Kurt Thomas - PF/C, Seattle Supersonics

Thomas has seen ample playing time for the young Sonics, averaging 27 minutes a game this month. Old crazy eyes is your classic fantasy specialist, having the ability to provide owners with double digit rebounds on any given night; he's averaging 9.4/game on the season. Thomas can also provide minimal contributions in defensive stats and shoot a solid FG%. However, don't expect much in the way of points from the former college basketball scoring king, those days are behind him.

Nazr Mohammed - C, Charlotte Bobcats

Mohammed was actually a fairly hot add earlier in the month after stringing together a few solid outing following a spike in playing time. However, Nazr came back down to Earth mid-month and is now a free agent once again in many leagues. Although he doesn't do anything exceptionally well, Mohammed has 10-12 point 7 rebound potential on his better nights and can help owners in both statistics. In addition, he shoots a high FG% and can offer limited contributions in defensive stats. 

For added insight, keep an eye out for our weekly Market Watch column which highlights players on the rise and decline.

Matt Murton Trade Rumors

The Cubs have Alfonso Soriano and Kosuke Fukudome both locked up to big money contracts to man their corner outfield spots. This leaves Matt Murton as the odd man out and without a place to play going into 2008. Murton is still a relatively young player (26) who could turn into a solid everyday player if he is traded to the right place.

FANTASY IMPACT

Murton needs to go to a place where he can play everyday. ESPN.com has the Rangers, Orioles and Padres listed as his main suitors. Murton is a guy who I think could hit .285 with 20 home runs, 10 stolen bases and 80-90RBIs if he lands with an A.L. team who plays in a smaller ballpark. These are by no means All-Star stats, but they are solid stats that could certainly help out a fantasy team.

If/when he gets traded, target Murton as a late pick in your draft. He has good potential to help out your squad in the right situation. If he goes to the Padres or Giants (just a hunch) I wouldn't take a flier on him at all.

Hot Harden Fantasy

Oakland A's manager, Bob Geren, recently declared that Rich Harden would be his number two starter when the season begins. This is interesting for a few reasons.

First, Geren expects Harden to be healthy enough to start the season. Harden's career began with huge expectations, electric stuff and a full speed ahead attitude. However, he has never taken off the way A's management or their fan base hoped. They were expecting a pitcher who could fill the void left when Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder were traded. Instead, they got a player who is quickly becoming a Mark Prior type pitcher; lots of stuff but never healthy enough to stay on the mound for an extended time. Here are his innings pitched since 2004:

2004- 189.2
2005- 128.0
2006- 46.2
2007- 25.2

Harden bottomed out in 2007, that is clear. During this time period he's had a variety of injuries including an inflamed shoulder, strained muscle in his back, oblique strain, and strained lat. Yet, over this time he still boasts a record of 26-14, with 364 strikeouts in 390 innings pitched. It is these results that have become a tease not only to the A's organization, but to fantasy baseball owners everywhere. I found this article from the San Fransisco Chronicle that does a good job of explaining Harden's injuries while discussing the cause and how the organization might try to prevent further injury. (Note: the article is from early in the 2006 season, so apparently their ideas to prevent further injury didn't work.)

Another reason this announcement is interesting is because Harden as the #2 means Joe Blanton enters the season as the number one starter. Blanton is good at what he does, throw 200 innings, have an era in the mid to high 3s and win about 15 games. However, he is not the true ace of a pitching staff and could wind up having some hard luck outings against the aces of other teams.

This development also indicates that Oakland plans to hold onto Blanton, eliminating the possibility of an offseason trade. They could enter the season with Blanton and see what teams would be willing to give up the most for him at the trade deadline; when he might actually have more value. Teams like the Yankees, Mets, Phillies, Reds, Dodgers, Rangers and White Sox could all be looking to add a starter at the deadline to help remain in the wildcard/playoff mix.

FANTASY IMPACT

Harden is a stud, in Mark Prior clothing. The bad thing about Harden is that every time out, you will worry if he'll get hurt and miss 2 months. The good thing is that he might become an afterthought in your draft and be a decent sleeper pick late. His injuries and lack of stats might make people forget about him, turning him into one of those guys taken in the last 5 rounds causing others to say things like "Oh, I totally forgot about him."

Blanton, is a workhorse but be weary of drafting him too early as an "ace." He is a good pitcher, and should make a good selection in the middle rounds with guys like Andy Pettitte and Gil Meche.

Check the Fantasy Sports Experience frequently for more fantasy updates, player news and sports analysis as the stories break.

Market Watch - Fantasy Basketball 1/25/08

FSE is proud to introduce our newest weekly column offering, Market Watch, which will take a look at the past week in each of our fantasy sports - baseball, football and basketball. The column will focus on players whose values we have upgraded and downgraded.

Quite a few upgrades this week due to the numerous injuries to key players around the league. Now, without further ado let's take a look at the fantasy basketball market for the period of 1/17/08 - 1/24/08. 

UPGRADES

1. Kareem Rush - As Pacers head coach Jim O'Brien has fallen deeper and deeper in love with smaller lineups, the better Rush's number have become. After a slow start to the season where he saw limited game action, Rush has worked his way into the Pacers regular starting backcourt. In the month of January, Rush is averaging nearly 14 points a game with over 2 three pointers and 1 steal. With Jermaine O'Neal out and Jamal Tinsley missing time on almost a regular basis with an assortment of injuries, Rush should get at least 30 minutes a night for the foreseeable and could actually build upon his current output.

2. Sebastian Telfair - Quietly, Sebastian Telfair has been having a very productive January for fantasy owners. Telfair has been the starting point guard in Minnesota for over a month now and has been receiving legitimate playing time, averaging around 35 minutes a night. In that time Bassy is averaging around 7 assists a night and of late his scoring has picked up, reaching a clip of about 12 points a night. For those owners looking for help in point guard categories such as assists and assist/turnover ratio, Telfair is your man. Just watch out for the impending return of Randy Foye who has begun practicing again and may starting playing again soon.

3. Mark Blount - With Shaq out for at least two weeks and Alonzo Mourning out for the season, that leaves Blount as the only serviceable option at center on the Heat roster. In prior seasons when receiving around 30 minutes a night, Blount has been able to register numbers around 12 points and 6 rebounds. Expect Blount to log around 35 minutes a night for the depleted Heat with the potential to average around 15 points and 7 rebounds a night. If that's not an indication of how bad the Heat are right now then I don't know what to tell you.

4. Joakim Noah - We fully documented Noah's rising value earlier today in a post regarding the impact of Luol Deng's injury. Give it a look.

5. Linas Kleiza - Kleiza had begun putting up big scoring numbers even before Carmelo Anthony went down with what appears a somewhat severe ankle sprain. Over his last 4 games, all of which he played 34 or more minutes, he is averaging 23.5 points a game including a 41 point outburst against Utah. With regular playing time Kleiza can help fantasy owners in scoring, rebounding (averaging 5 a game in January) and three pointers. Kleiza has become a favorite of George Karl so he should get minutes whether Anthony starts or not. However, if Melo were to miss extended time it will certainly help Kleiza's cause.

DOWNGRADES

1. Darko Milicic - As a very patient Darko owner (I've consistently owned him since the draft) I am here to tell you that it might be time to cut ties with the Yugoslavian prince rather than wait for him to come around. Darko had a good start to the season, showing promise with solid efforts in his first eight games. However, various injuries have forced Milicic to miss eight games since then while leaving several other contests early. In January, Darko has put up one double-double, marking the only time he has reach double digits in either points or rebounds. In addition, the fantasy stat category which has been Darko's strength, blocks, has slipped terribly of late. Until Darko once again establishes a consistent role in Memphis, I would look to the waiver wire for an alternative.

2. Beno Udrih - Beno has been a pleasant surprise this season, putting up solid point guard numbers for Sacramento averaging 13.4 points and 4.5 assists. Unfortunately, the return of Mike Bibby to the starting lineup has relegated Udrih to the bench and cut his playing time in half. To his credit, Udrih has put up some admirable scoring numbers in limited time. However, Udrih's assist totals are down and in the King's last game he failed to score in 17 minutes of play. While Beno's value is down right now, if the Kings were to trade Mike Bibby as has been wildly rumored Udrih would once again be a solid fantasy option. 

3. Yi Jianlian - Yi had a solid December averaging over 12 points and 6 rebounds a game; however, January has been unkind to the Chairman. His scoring and rebounding averages have dipped to 8 points and 5 rebounds while his minutes have become more inconsistent. Yi still has a lot of potential going forward, but if you can find a better option until the Bucks stop playing musical chairs with their frontcourt's playing time, go for it. 

Wang's Mock Arbitation Hearing

According to Yankees.com, the Yankees and Chien-Ming Wang recently laid the groundwork for Wang's arbitration case. Wang, who will turn 28 on Opening Day, tied his career high in victories for the second consecutive season in 2007, going 19-7 with a 3.70 ERA while establishing a career high with 104 strikeouts. He earned $489,500 last season after his contract was renewed in Spring Training and has requested $4.6 million while the Yanks are only offering $4 million.

The thought of the New York Yankees and Chien-Ming Wang going to an arbitrator lead to the following sequence in my mind. I'm pretty sure some of this will actually be said at the hearing.

Mock Arbitration:

Arbitrator- So Mr. Wang it appears you are asking for a pay increase from $489,500 to $4.6 million. Unfortunately, the Yankees are only offering you $4 million dollars. We are gathered here today to hear both sides of the story and come up with a solution that will appease both sides. Let's hear your case first Mr. Wang.

Wang- Hello sir my name is Chien-Ming Wang and I am a right handed starting pitcher. I have lead my team in wins for the past two years and have a devastating sinker that causes batters to hit many ground balls to my stellar infield. I will be 28 years old on opening day and believe that my statistics merit a 3.5 million dollar raise. As you can see I am 6'3" and weigh 235 lbs with very long arms. I'm sure you are familiar with my work and have seen the movement on my ball. I brought a witness here named John Sterling to tell you how great I am. He is my biggest fan and would like to share some of his thoughts if you would allow it?

Arbitrator- Thank you for coming Mr. Wang, may I call you Mr. Wang? I think I have seen some of your movies? Anyways, what else besides 19 wins for the highest paid team in baseball do you think merits a 3.5 million dollar raise? Further, I would hope you have led your team in wins the last two years, do you realize who else is in your rotation? Mr. Wang the Yankees Representative would like to state his case first before you continue.

Yankees Rep- Greetings Wang, Let's get right down to it! First, would you like to tell all of us here about your 2007 post season? Can you tell us more about any of your post seasons? Let me remind everyone in the free world that even Mike Mussina has been able to win double digits for the Yankees and he is awful. 19 wins for this Yankees team really doesn't mean much. What was that ERA? How many wins did you have in the 2007 post season? Thank you for your time Mr. arbitrator, I have nothing more to say.

Arbitrator- So Mr. Wang, it appears you had an 0-2 record last post season with an ERA around 20?! Are you serious Mr. Wang? This team doesn't care what you do in the regular season? It's what you do in the post season that counts son and if you can't get it done then, you don't deserve the money you are asking for. THIS CASE IS CLOSED!

Nick Johnson or Dmitri Young Decisions, Decisions For Jim Bowden

One is an oft injured first baseman, who is coming off multiple leg injuries. The other is a former all star, whose work ethic and dedication could never be questioned, but whose off the field issues, cannot be ignored. The former is 29 year old Nick Johnson. The latter is 43-year-old Dmitri Young. They have little in common, except, come opening day, they both could be listed as the Washington National's first baseman. This possible log jam gives National's General Manager, Jim Bowden the power to do what few others do better than him. Make a trade.

First, Bowden needs to decide which first baseman he wants to trade.

Dmitri Young is a hard nosed player, who leaves whatever he can out on the field. He could be a good veteran for the young players on Washington to look up to, and provide an important leadership role. Specifically for the outfield, which could potentially feature Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge, who have each had varying degrees of maturity and professionalism issues. Young's problem with alcohol and being dumped by the Detroit Tigers is well documented and could serve as a way for him to connect to the younger players and serve as a mentor.

Nick Johnson is a few years younger than Dmitri, and having a good ability to draw walks, might have more value, despite his injury history. He could make a fine DH for an American League team, but would lack the durability to play first on an everyday basis. Seattle might be a good fit, given Richie Sexson's inconsistency and the fact their DH right now is Jose Vidro.

Most of this right now, is still in its early stages, and both players will have to show up to spring training to compete for a job, before it is just handed to them. Stay tuned to fantasysportsexperience.blogspot.com for any updates we find along the way.

Cano- Yanks Nearing an Extention

Foxsports.com's Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the New York Yankees and All-Star second baseman Robinson Cano are closing to inking a 4 year, 30million dollar contract extension. This would be a break in protocol for the Yanks, who normally wait until a player's arbitration years are up and they are eligible for free agency before signing them. With players like Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu eligible for free agency after this season, the Yankees look to be trying to solidify the left side of the batting order before it becomes a pressing issue.

FANTASY IMPACT

Look for Cano to go from one of the top five second baseman in all of baseball to really cementing himself as one of the top two at the position this year. Entering his third year, Cano is primed to put it all together and will no longer be looked at as an afterthought in a potent offense, but rather a vital piece expected to produce. The possible tandem of Cano hitting 3rd and Alex Rodriguez hitting 4th , could give the Yankees one of the best 3-4 combinations in all of baseball for years to come.

Look for Cano to easily top 20 homeruns and 100 RBIs with a batting average over .300.

Luol Deng Out Indefinately - Andres Nocioni and Joakim Noah Will Benefit

Luol Deng is expected to miss around 4 weeks with a sore left Achilles that has hampered him for the last month. Deng has been a disappointment thus far, failing to take the next step towards superstardom coming off a breakout sophomore campaign. His scoring, rebounding, FG% and defensive stats are all down slightly which is a product of the injury he's been playing through and his team's struggles.

Fantasy Impact

The injury to Deng opens the door for new fantasy options such as Joakim Noah while also offering the potential to resurrect the numbers of a few of the Bulls' fantasy underachievers, most notably Andres Nocioni.

Nocioni will be the biggest beneficiary of Deng's absence and should consistently see over 30 minutes a night for here on out. After a slow start to the season which saw him fall out of the Bulls' rotation, Nocioni has come on strong in January averaging around 18 points and 4 rebounds a game. With the added minutes and offensive touches, there is no reason that he can't put up 20-22 points a night with 6 rebounds and 2-3 three pointers. In addition, Kirk Hinrich is now in good position to improve his disappointing first half numbers. He and Nocioni will be most responsible for making up Deng's 18 points a night and should establish themselves as the Bulls' offensive focal points along with Ben Gordon.

In terms of youngsters that will see an instant upgrade in fantasy value, look no further than Joakim Noah. I have been impressed with Noah for a while now and have been tempted to add him to our Fantasy Ballers On The Brink. However, due to the presence of the decaying corpse known as "Big Ben" manning the middle in Chicago, I have been reluctant as Noah simply wasn't getting adequate playing time to make a difference.

That all changes with the Deng injury which opens up a good amount of playing time in the front court. Noah should start seeing 25-30 minutes a night and I believe he will start regularly come the second half of the season. Given consistent minutes, Noah's scrappy on court demeanor makes him a legitimate threat for a double-double with a few steals on any given night. While his biggest contributions will come on the boards, Noah has a knack for scoring and takes quality shots which should produce a solid FG%.

In addition to Noah, Tyrus Thomas could work his way out of the dog house and back into the rotation for the short-handed Bulls. He has shown flashes of being a well-rounded fantasy contributor in the past. Also noteworthy is Thabo Sefolosha who will continue to get minutes if Ben Gordon's wrist injury turns out to be more than a day to day ailment. We'll keep you posted.

Duaner Sanchez Ready For 2008 Season

Duaner Sanchez's is nearly fully recovered from a gruesome shoulder injury suffered in a cab accident in 2006 and will be ready for spring training. All reports from Port St. Lucie, where Sanchez has been rehabbing this winter, have been positive. Sanchez has been throwing comfortably off of a mound and has touched 94 mph on the radar gun. Contrary to prior rumblings that Sanchez was out of shape, two eye witnesses told MetsBlog that Sanchez looks good and is throwing well.

Fantasy Impact

Before his injury, Sanchez was enjoying a dominant 2006 campaign which began with a 21 inning scoreless streak. He posted career highs in ERA (2.61), WHIP (1.21), wins (5) and holds (14) while striking out 44 batters in only 55 innings of work. A healthy Sanchez will be an integral part of a relatively thin Mets bullpen that should get a lot of work. Although he will more than likely start off pitching in the 7th inning, Sanchez should get plenty of work as a setup man as the season goes along.

Sanchez has good fantasy value in leagues that use the hold statistic, although he can contribute a bit in non-hold leagues by lowering a staff's ERA and WHIP. A healthy Sanchez who survives the 2008 season unscathed should register around 70-75 innings and 20+ holds easily. I project his ERA to be in the mid 2's while his WHIP might be higher than 2006 outputs as he returns to form after a layoff of over a year.

Managers in leagues that include holds should take a late round flier on Sanchez who appears to be under the radar as of now. He has the potential to finish 2008 as a top 15 middle reliever if healthy.

Pittsburgh Looking to Make Things Wright

Jaret Wright has signed a minor league deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates. What makes this potentially interesting is that the deal includes incentives for both starting and relieving.

FANTASY IMPACT

Wright has been a fantasy bust since signing on with the New York Yankees following the 2003 season. Wright could always hit the low to mid 90's on the gun, but has trouble locating where the ball is going after he throws it. He has been rehabbing constant shoulder problems for the better part of 2 seasons now, making his health a huge question mark. The Pirates are probably hoping for Wright to fill the role Shawn Chacon held for the team last season; a middle to long reliever, who could also start in a pinch.
While I have admired Wright's moxie when on the mound, there isn't a whole lot more to him. Don't bother to worry about drafting him, as he will be a long shot to even make the major league roster let alone remain healthy for an entire season.

Jody Gerut Back Again

Jody Gerut has signed a minor league contract with the San Diego Padres that includes an invitation to spring training and shot to make the forty man roster.

FANTASY IMPACT

Gerut hasn't done much since his first two seasons in the big leagues in 2003, and 2004. He has bounced around from Cleveland, to the Chicago Cubs and finally to the Pittsburgh Pirates where he has spent the better part of the last 2 seasons rehabbing a knee injury. This could be Gerut's last shot at making a major league ball club. If he is completely healthy, he could hit 13 home runs playing his home games at Petco ballpark and steal 20 bases. That is a big IF.
Personally I wouldn't bother to draft Gerut, let someone else take the risk. He might be worth keeping an eye on as a free agent in your league, if he makes the Padres out of spring training.

From the staff

All of us here at the Fantasy Sports Experience would like to take this moment to wish you all a very happy Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

YADIER MOLINA LOCKED UP

The owner of the, "Biggest home run in Cardinals history", agreed to a new four-year contract that includes a club option for 2012. Yadier, the youngest of the Molina family of catchers, and arguably the best will remain in St. Louis for four more years. Molina batted .275 last season with 6 HR and 40 RBI. The Cards didn't sign him for his bat, however he will anchor a team in transition with his game calling and his rocket arm. Molina is mostly known around baseball circles because of his older established brothers. Yadier is said the be the best of the three and is most remembered for his two run home run off of Aaron Heilman in Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS.

Fantasy Impact

Molina is nothing more than a great defensive catcher, who will bat around 270-280 range and provide little with his bat. If errors is a category in your league then take a look at Molina, he will provide a solid glove, but little at the plate.

Jermaine O'Neal May Miss The Rest Of The Season

Reports indicate that Indiana Pacers' center Jermaine O'Neal might elect to miss the remainder of the season in an effort to properly heal a knee injury that has been lingering for the better part of the last two years.

Fantasy Impact

While the extended absence of O'Neal, an adept scoring big man and strong shot blocker (2.2/game), hurts many fantasy teams, it also brings some closure. O'Neal has missed 8 games already this season and left a contest prematurely on several other occasions. If O'Neal is in fact finished for the season, it is better that fantasy owners know sooner rather than later. Right now, there is still time to make a deal to sure up the roster, had this lingered owners may have been stuck.

With O'Neal out, Jeff Foster and Troy Murphy will split the duties at center. Both guys are very similar and are certainly viable fantasy options given their ability to put up numbers in the 10 points and 10 rebound range given the proper minutes. Murphy can also add some threes as he is currently averaging 1.3 a game. As of now, the two men are evenly splitting the time at center, both averaging around 25-26 a night. Going forward, it will be important to monitor the playing time distribution when making a determination about each players value.

In my opinion, Jeff Foster is the more consistent fantasy option due to his excellent rebounding ability while Troy Murphy has the better upside being a more skilled scorer/3 point shooter. Ultimately, the decision to add either player will come down to the needs of your roster.

Foster is a virtual lock for 10+ rebound anytime he gets 25 or more minutes. Foster doesn't get many FG attempts so he wont hurt you in FG%, and when he does score its usually a high percentage shot close to the basket. Foster can provide 8-10 points a game with adequate minutes.

Murphy is also a good rebounder, averaging 7.1 on the season, however his propensity to shoot 3s and jumpers will hurt you in the FG % department where he is only at 41%, poor for a big man. Murphy has his occasional breakout scoring game, but will normally put up around 10 point a night with a 3 pointer mixed in when averaging 25 minutes a night. If Murphy can rehash some of the magic 2004-05 and 2005-06 seasons where he averaged around 15-10 while getting 30+ minutes a night in Golden State, he might be a very intriguing fantasy option down the stretch.

Two other guys to keep an eye on are the Pacers' forwards Danny Granger and Mike Dunleavy Jr who are both enjoying solid seasons thus far. The injury to O'Neal eliminates one of the Pacers' top scoring options. Factoring in that he will be replaced in the lineup by guys that are better rebounders than scorers, the forwards will be asked to pick up some of the slack. Granger and Dunleavy Jr. should receive more touches on the offensive end and I think you will see larger scoring outputs from each player.

Manning Vs. Rivers.. Giants Got it Right

Back in the 2004 NFL draft the Giants made a huge draft day trade with the San Diego Chargers. San Diego swapped the first overall selection, Eli Manning, for Phillip Rivers (the Giants selected him fourth overall), a 2004 third round pick as well as first and fifth round picks in the 2005 draft. While the Chargers would use those extra picks to land pro bowlers Shawne Merriman and Nate Kaeding, the Giants got Eli Manning... and nothing else.

Manning has been criticized for being too lanky, a poor decision-maker, regressing in talent, not being named Peyton and a variety of other things that only the New York media and fan base can think of. In addition, he was even called "skittish" in the pocket by his GM Jerry Reese earlier in the season.  

Fortunately, among the things he has not been criticized for are being hot headed, ill tempered, and trash talking opposing fans. Rivers talked a bunch, but was ultimately unable to back it up. Eli, on the other hand has been able to stay with in himself and the team. His low key demeanor does not take away from what his team does, nor does it make him open to further criticism. He is a throwback to the days when QBs spoke loudest with their play, rather than their mouth.

Rivers would have been a terrible fit for New York. If you think his on-field shenanigans would have gone under the radar as they have in San Diego you are kidding yourself. His tenure in New York had the potential for countless petty fights with fan base and more importantly the caustic New York media. While heavily criticized, Eli has kept the focus on the other teams, deflecting attention away from himself. Rivers is a ticking time bomb and the New York media would have had a field day with him.

Affirmation of the Giants decision to trade for Eli occurred this weekend. Manning went into Green Bay and beat Brett Favre at home in what was the 3rd coldest game ever played; advancing to his first Super Bowl. Manning has lead the Giants through the playoffs playing mistake-free football (4 TDs and 0 INTs in 3 games) making big throws when needed. 

Rivers lost, and looked bad doing so. He gave the ball away multiple times trying to force the issue and took away from what was a spirited performance by the San Diego defense. Eli might not be the main the reason the Giants are going to the Superbowl, that credit has to go to the defense. However, unlike Rivers, he isn't the main reason they are going home.

Brett Tomko To The Royals and the Fantasy Impact

Looks like Brett Tomko is headed to the Royals in a one year 3million dollar deal.

FANTASY IMPACT

Brett Tomko has been around for years and consistently known as a guy with "good stuff" who can't figure it out. Last season Tomko went 4-12 in stints with the LA Dodgers, and San Diego Padres. Of course, some will look at that and say, "Well, he did go 2-1 in his time with San Diego" which is probably why he has hug around as long as he has.

Look for Tomko to pick up a few wins and holds, as he is a versatile pitcher who can start and relieve. There are rumors that he might get a shot at closing which would enable the Royals to move Joakim Soria to the rotation. This doesn't make a ton of sense for a variety of reasons. The first being, that Soria was very good at closing last season, so why would the Royals want to mess with that. The other is that, Tomko just can't be trusted to consistently get outs in a big spot. Tomko's strength is his durability, and his versatility, he should not be entrusted with closing duties any time soon.

If you really want to you can draft Tomko late in your draft. If your league counts holds, he could get 13 holds for the season and maybe 5 wins. Nothing overwhelming, but that's what Tomko is, given his history and past numbers.

Reds Looking For Affeldt to Start

Jeremy Affeldt has signed a one year 3 million dollar contract with the Cincinnati Reds. The move is actually a savvy deal for Wayne Krivsky, as he will look for Affeldt to compete for a spot in the team's starting rotation. At worst the Reds get a solid, left handed middle reliever signed for the going rate. At best, they have a solid number 4 starter who can eat up innings and win a few games, signed at a bargain rate given what some starter are going for. Credit Krivsky with seeing what was available out there in terms of starting pitchers and realizing that Affeldt could be just as good at a much lower cost. Krivsky already drank the Kyle Lohse Kool-Aid, once and it was enough.

FANTASY IMPACT

I have been a big fan of Affeldt for a while now. He has good pop on his fastball, and a lollipop curve that compliment each other nicely. Affeldt's stuff has never been the question, the question has been in his ability to spot the pitches and throw then effectively. At worst he is sent to the bullpen, where he would collect a good amount of holds setting up for Fransisco Cordero. If you want to take a late round flier on him as a sleeper in your draft you can. There are plenty of worse options out there.

Rivers Update...Does it Matter?

Philip Rivers has told ESPN's Bob Holtzman that he sees no reason why he wouldn't be able to play in Sunday's AFC Championshp game against New England. Back up quarterback Bily Volek will start on the the bench ready come in if Rivers' knee acts up.

IMPACT

I think San Diego will be relying mostly on their running game today, so I am not sure it is really going to matter who the starting quarterback is. The last thing San Diego wants to do is get into a high scoring, game with a lot of throws, because they would be feeding into the type of game New England thrives in.

If he is healthy, expect LaDainian Tomlinson to get some of the carries, but also expect to see a lot of Michael Turner and Darren Sproles. LT and Turner will probably be counted on to bruise up the middle and wear down veteran linebackers, Mike Vrabel, Teddy Bruschi and Junior Seau. Then, expect to see Sproles as a change of pace back used to pick up big yards, using his break away speed. Sproles is becoming a Maurice Jones-Drew type, without the hype, or expectations. Look for him to be the x-factor in San Diego's game.

I think whoever starts at quarterback won't really be counted on to make huge play, with the exception of a few 3rd and 4s to keep a drive alive. Last week we saw that both Rivers and Volek were capable of doing that.

Down Goes Marbury, Up Goes The Value Of Several Knicks

Stephon Marbury will be out indefinitely after electing to have knee surgery performed in season. My educated guess is that we won't see Steph in a Knicks jersey again this season and there is a good chance his run in New York may be over altogether. An offseason trade (his contract expires at the end of next season) or the more likely scenario of a buyout are good possibilities.

Interestingly enough, what makes the Knicks stink in real life - a roster consisting of players with individual talent, devoid of any semblance of chemistry - is the same thing that gives them several viable fantasy basketball options.  

Let's take a look at the Knicks roster and gauge the ripple effect Marbury's absence will have on the value of the team's three most fantasy relevant players. While were here, let's look at the two guys most hurt by the arrival of Zach Randolph this season. To add to the fun, the players are ranked in terms of their current and future fantasy value.

Guys Helped By Marbury's Absence

1. Jamal Crawford

Didn't see that coming huh. I have long been considered a Crawford apologist but up until this very moment, I wasn't crazy enough to call him the Knicks' top fantasy option. Crawford has been quietly enjoying a solid fantasy season averaging nearly 20 points and 5 assists a game.  I have long contested that it was Marbury's domineering playing style that has held the more unselfish Crawford back. Sharing a backcourt with Marbury is like sharing a pie with Andy Reid, you know you won't be satisfied. With Steph gone Crawford becomes the Knicks' top scoring option and will handle more responsibilities at the point. I see him further developing his all-around game with second half averages of 23 points and 6 assists not out of the question. Buy low on Crawford now and don't worry about playing time, at 41 minutes a night, he is third in the NBA.

2. Zach Randolph

Randolph is a perennial fantasy stalwart at the power forward position, as he has averaged around 20-10 for the last 4 years now. After a career season in 2006-07 where he more or less dominated the Portland offense, Randolph has regressed a bit in New York. Poor on court chemistry with Eddy Curry and Isiah's insistence on playing them together has forced Zach to shoot more rather than pound on the block. The two bigs both require room to operate on the low block and Thomas' vision of a high-low game with Randolph playing more on the perimeter has failed due to his below average passing skills and vision. Lately, Zeke has come around and splits the bigs up for a majority of the game which has allowed Randolph to reel off a few big games. With Marbury gone, that means more touches for Zach inside and with Isiah seemingly favoring him over Curry, he should see extended playing time. Randolph is still averaging nearly 17-10 on the season and his scoring output should rise going forward.

3. Nate Robinson

Two weeks ago, I urged FSE readers to add Nate to their roster, citing his increasing playing time and stellar play in those minutes. The only caveat I threw in regarding Nate's value was the pending return of Steph, which could take minutes away from Nate at the point guard position. Well, now that Marbury is officially out of the equation, Nate will certainly be seeing around 30 minutes a night and should continue putting up around 16 points, his average over the last two weeks. Beyond scoring, what has surprised even me has been his solid play at the point guard position. Nate is averaging over 5 assists a game with an Assist/Turnover ratio of 4.5, which is really good by any standard. Throw in 2 three pointers along with a few steals and you have a guy that will be a worthy contributor going into fantasy basketball's stretch run.

Guys Hurt By The Arrival Of Randolph.

4. Eddy Curry

Eddy Curry has certainly been a disappointment this season, posting lower numbers across the board from scoring to FG %. However, he has come on a bit in the month of January since Isiah split him up with Randolph, becoming more effective down low with the added spacing. He is averaging 16.5 points and 5.4 rebounds this month in roughly 30 minutes of play and his FG% is back up to the 2006-07 range of 58%. Don't expect many defensive stats from Curry, but he is currently a serviceable backup fantasy center.

5. David Lee

 

Outside of maybe Eddy Curry, no one has been hurt more by the acquisition of Zach Randolph than David Lee. Lee flourished in a defined 6th man role last season, posting a double-double (10.7 points & 10.4 rebounds) on the season while putting up solid percentages across the board - 60% from the field and 81.5% from the free throw line. The chemistry problems between Randolph and Curry have made David Lee the buffer power forward, as he has been used to split the bigs up. He has alternated between starting and coming off the bench and the end result has been inconsistent playing time (actually down from 30 minutes last year to 26 minutes) and naturally poorer numbers across the board. Lee is not averaging double digits in either points or rebounds this season and his FG% has dipped down into the low 50s. While I love what David Lee offers in real life, I feel his fantasy stock has been overrated this season given the logjam at the forward position in New York. A deadline trade of either Curry or Randolph would immediately increase Lee's value.

Carpenter Fix?

The good news for the St. Louis Cardinals is that ace Chris Carpenter has began throwing sessions to help rehab from Tommy John surgery. The even better news is that these sessions have began pain free for Carpenter.

FANTASY IMPACT

I would suggest taking a late round flier on Carpenter, and stashing him on the DL. Most of the time it takes 10-12 months to recover and be well enough to pitch effectively, and that would mean a return of some time after the all-star break. Think of this as being a similar situation to what Pedro Martinez went through last season. Martinez pitched very well down the stretch for the Mets, though he had little to show for it, thanks to the Mets free fall.

Carpenter could be in a similar situation, as far as the time frame goes, but I don't expect him to pitch as well as Pedro did down the stretch last season. (Pedro Martinez has been a freak of nature his entire career, what he did coming back from TJ surgery was no exception.) Expect some growing pains like a good start and then a poor start, as is usually the case for a pitcher coming off of TJ surgery. Still if you are in a head to head league, he is worth having around on your bench, or DL spot. There are not many aces who can just appear at that time of year, and help a team win a championship.

Personally, I would draft him late, stash him in my DL spot, wait for him to begin his rehab starts, and for the hype of his comeback to grow. Then, while he was blowing away
AAA talent, I would trade him while his value was growing, and before he came back. Let someone else worry about his inconsistent starts, and the constant threat of being shut down for the season, to lessen the risk of re-injury.

Dotel To the White Sox Rumors

Various media outlets are reporting that the White Sox have either signed Octavio Dotel, or are very close to doing so, to a two year 11.5 million dollar contract. There are however, conflicting reports coming from Dotel's camp.

The White Sox already have two solid lefties to turn to in Matt Thornton, and Boone Logan. The right handed relievers, were a bit more of a gamble last season for Ozzie Guillen and company. Mike MacDougal last season led the White Sox in holds with a respectable 19. Of course he also had a 6.80ERA and a WHIP of 1.961.

Going into 2008 the White Sox will have Scott Linebrink and now (potentially) Dotel from the right side. This gives them two solid left handed and right handed relievers to go to, and use in various match-ups.

FANTASY OUTLOOK

There isn't a whole lot of fantasy impact here, unless your league counts Holds as a stat. Octavio Dotel would immediately become the White Sox go to set up man in the 7th inning, and probably be the back up closer should anything happen to incumbent Bobby Jenks. The recently signed Scott Linebrink, would remain entrenched in the 8th inning, because Dotel has closing experience.

Even if they struggle in their roles, I fully expect Linebrink and Dotel to keep their jobs, because of the near 30 million the White Sox would have invested in them. Expect at least 15 holds from each, and Dotel to get 2-3 saves here and there.

Signing Day

There were a whole bunch of signings announced Friday from all over baseball. We focus on the major ones, and what to expect from them in 2008.

Mark Teixeira, 1b Atlanta Braves
Teixeira agreed to a one year, 12.5 million dollar contract, avoiding arbitration.

FANTASY IMPACT

Big Tex came out like a ball of fire in 2005 hitting 43HR with 144RBI making him one of the top 1B in all of fantasy baseball. Since then however, Teixeira really has not been the same player. He has two straight seasons where he has struggled to top 30HR, and 100RBI. It seems this is more the player Teixeira is than the one he showed to be in 2005. You can do plenty worse than 30HR and 100RBI from a 1B when you go to draft.

Draft Big Tex around the time you would take a Morneau, Paul Konerko, or a Lance Brekman. DO NOT be fooled into taking him in the first or second round any more, where only the elite players should be going. This isn't to say Tex isn't a good player, he is solid, he just is not the elite 1B he showed to be in 2005.

One more note on Big Tex, that not many have commented on yet. The last two seasons specifically, Tex has really showed himself to be a second half player. (Note: Teixeira did miss some time Pre-All Star Break in 2007, but the first and second half difference in at bats was only 50)

• Pre-All Star Break - 2006: 9HR, 49RBI  2007: 12HR, 41RBI
• Post-All Star Break - 2006: 24HR, 49RBI  2007: 18HR, 64RBI
• Total Splits -  First Half: 21HR, 90RBI   Second Half: 42HR, 113RBI                              

The numbers there speak for themselves. In the Fantasy industry this could be referred to as a "trend." Meaning, you should be looking to either hold onto him come mid to late June, or trying to acquire him from an owner who has lost his patients with the struggling slugger.

Miguel Cabrera, 3B Detroit Tigers.
Cabrera agreed to a one year, 11.3 million dollar deal with the Detroit Tigers, avoiding arbitration.

FANTASY IMPACT

It is no secret that Miguel Cabrera is one of the top 5 3B in all of baseball, and the best natural hitter to come around since Albert Pujols. He is good for a .320ba, 30hr, and 100+ rbi season almost every year. Moving to the Tiger's line up will only help his numbers. He goes from being the one of the few dangerous bat in the Marlin's line up to being surrounded by the likes of Carlos Guillen, Gary Sheffield, Placido Polanco, Curtis Granderson, Magglio Ordonez, Pudge Rodriguez and Edgar Renteria. With that sort of talent around him, Cabrera's RBI, Homerun, and runs scored numbers are definitely going to rise a great amount. Cabrera has played on World Series teams in the past, but this is by far the most complete line up he will ever be featured in. Expect the normal .320ba, along with 35+hr, with 140rbi and well over 100runs scored.

Bottom line, this guy is a first round pick. The move to the Detroit only makes him stronger.

Matt Holliday, OF Colorado Rockies
Holliday agreed to a 2 year, 23 million dollar deal, avoiding arbitration for the next two years.

FANTASY IMPACT

Last season the Colorado Rockies shocked the world by not only making the playoffs, but also making it to the World Series, and in the middle of it all was Matt Holliday. Holliday had a very good 2006 season. Holliday had an even better 2007 season. If Holliday only hit .340avg with 36HR and 137RBI, he would be one of the top ranked outfielders in all of baseball. Keep in mind, last season he also stole 11bases, and is good for atleast 11-13 steals a season. Not a tremendous amount, but it can be enough the help in a head to head league over the course of a long season. Holliday continues his career with a young Colorado Rockies team that showed last season how team chemistry really does make a difference

Justin Morneau, 1b Minnesota Twins
Morneau, agreed to a 7.4 milion dollar one year contract, to avoid arbitration.

FANTASY IMPACT

Morneau anchors the Minnesota Twins offense, that features some potent bats in the forms of C Joe Mauer, LF Delmon Young, and RF Michael Cuddyer. Of course the offense also features some non-potent bats in, 2B Alexi Casilla, SS Adam Everett, Craig Monroe, and Jason Kubel. Even with an offense that some could call "suspect," Morneau is good for a 110rbi, 30hr season.

Minnesota tried to counteract the loss of Torii Hunter by trading for Young. In his second full season, Young could be in line to put up numbers similar, or even better, to that of Hunter. Morneau, isn't an elite fantasy 1B, but he is a solid RBI, and HR guy. A fine pick after Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard , Alber Pujols, and if you believe in him, Carlos Pena.

Stay tuned to look out for out upcoming article where we check out some of the other pre arbitration signings ad well as rumors from around the league.

Carlos Pena Resigns With Tampa - In Line For A Solid 2008

Slugging first baseman Carlos Pena has resigned with the Tampa Bay Rays, agreeing to 3 year 24 million dollar contract. Pena had a remarkable breakout campaign in 2007 hitting 46 homers with 121 RBIs and 99 runs scored in only 490 ABs, easily establishing career highs across the board. Pena's season truly came out of nowhere, as he spent 2006 with the Red Sox playing in only 18 games and compiling a total of 33 ABs.

Once a highly touted prospect, Pena was taken 10th overall by the Rangers in the 1998 draft. He was dealt to Oakland before the 2002 season and then sent to Detroit as part of the infamous 3-team deadline deal which sent Jeff "Dream" Weaver to the Yanks and Ted Lilly to Oakland.

Pena had a forgettable three and a half year stint in Detroit, topping 20 homers only once while failing to hit above .250. He was claimed off the proverbial scrap heap by Tampa prior to the 2007 season and started raking as soon as he arrived. He hit 20 homers with 52 RBIs in the first half and topped that output in the second half crushing 26 homers while driving in 69.

In addition to the gaudy homerun and RBI numbers, Pena maintained a batting average over .280 for the first time in his career while drawing 103 walks on his way to an OPS over 1.000 (1.038).

2008 Fantasy Impact

Pena enters the 2008 campaign as the Rays' unquestioned starter at first base and will hit in one of the league's most dynamic, up and coming lineups. Pena will most likely bat fourth, with great talents like BJ Upton, Carl Crawford and if healthy (big if) Rocco Baldelli hitting in front of him. These guys are solid hitters who get on base and, especially in the cases of Upton and Crawford, have excellent speed on the basepaths. This should provide Pena with an abundance of RBI opportunities. As far as lineup protection goes, a healthy Jonny Gomes or the emergence of third base phenom Evan Longoria should be ample.

Pena comes into the 2008 season at 29 years of age, in his absolute hitting prime. Additionally, barring injury, he should get more at bats this season while slotting into a choice spot in a steadily improving Tampa lineup. Although it will be difficult to top his 2007 output, Pena should enjoy a solid season in 2008 (think 35 homers, 100+ RBIs, 100 + runs scored) and enters 2008 as a clear-cut top 10 first base option, falling somewhere anywhere from 7th to 10th at the position.

2007 NBA Draft - Checking In On The Top 10

Now that we are three months into the season, let's take a look at how the top 10 picks from the 2007 NBA draft are faring. We will analyze their numbers, fantasy standing and value going forward.

#1 Greg Oden, Portland Trail Blazers

Key Stats: None, Out for the season (knee)

We are off to a fast start! Oden hasn't (and won't) log a single minute of playing time this season and yet the Trail Blazers still sit atop the NBA's Northwest division. Expect Oden to get significant playing time right off the bat next year (granted he is healthy and fully recovered from microfracture surgery) and for the Trail Blazers to become perennial contenders for an NBA title sooner rather than later. Next season, Oden should replace Joel Przybilla, a serviceable NBA center, who can reboard and block a shot, but offers little in the way of an offensive game. Oden will be able to score more, and add athleticism to an already deep, young team. Additionally, Oden is an excellent defensive player and should average around 2 blocks a game. Even coming off injury, in what will be his first season of play, Oden has the potential to be a top 5 fantasy center next season at a position that has been lacking in recent years.

#2 Kevin Durant, Seattle SuperSonics

Key Stats: 19.8 points 4.3 rebounds 1.14 blocks.

While the Sonics have flopped and (at the time of this writing) are an abysmal 20 games under .500, Durant has showed to be something special amongst the sea of mediocrity in Seattle. Durant's biggest criticism coming out of college was that he was too lanky, and needed to put on more weight. While this might effect his rebounding ability, his long arms and freakish wingspan have made him difficult to guard on the offense end and have allowed him to block more than a shot a game. Already averaging nearly 20 points a night as a rookie, expect his game to really flourish in the next 2-3 seasons. Remember he is only 19, as his game and body develop, we are looking at a guy who will eventually be averaging 25+ points, 6-7 rebounds and 1.5-2 blocks a night.

#3 Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks

Key Stats: 8.9 points 9.7 rebounds 1.12blocks.

Al Horford has had a fine fantasy rookie season, already playing big minutes and contributing nearly a double- double a night. He has helped a once desolate Hawks franchise reach the .500 mark and offers great hope at the center/power forward position moving forward. Expect him to average around 13 points with 10+ rebounds next season as his confidence grows and minutes continue to increase.

#4 Mike Conley Jr., Memphis Grizzlies

Key Stats: 8.8 points 4.6 assists in 24.8 minutes.

At first glance, Conley's numbers don't look all that great. Don't let the numbers thus far fool you, the kid is just starting to make his impact. Conley has only played in 14 games this season, starting 8, all of which have come in the month of January. Since the beginning of the month Conley's averaging 11.1points and 5.4assists in 31.6minutes. Granted that is nothing spectacular, but we are seeing the young point guard improve and start to come into his own. As the season wears on, we expect Conley's numbers to continue improving as he gets acclimated to playing along side scorers like Pau Gasol and Rudy Gay. Both are averaging over 20 points a game during the month of January, since Conley has become the starter which should bode well for the rookie PG's value going forward.

#5 Jeff Green, Seattle SuperSonics

Key Stats: 9 points 4.9 rebounds.

Green hasn't done anything to get overly excited about from a fantasy perspective just yet. His stats so far are less than spectacular, and even on the nights when he does see more playing time the numbers aren't all that different from his season averages. The only way we could see Green's numbers making a significant increase this season would be if Seattle trades a veteran like perhaps a Kurt Thomas, giving Green more consistent playing time, offensive touches and rebounding opportunities. Looking ahead Green's future looks pretty bright as he does play alongside Kevin Durant, and we might see these young forwards together for years to come.

#6 Yi Jianlian, Milwaukee Bucks

Key Stats: 10.3 points 6 rebounds .806 ft%.

After a strong December, where he averaged 13 and 7, Yi's numbers have dipped a bit and look more like those he was registering at the start of the season. Jianlian, has the potential to become a strong NBA player down the road, but this season he has been pretty inconsistent, and a mediocre fantasy option at best. Yi has shown some flashes of being a legitimate scorer and rebounder while displaying a good understanding for the game. Added experience playing in the US and some moves by the Bucks to clear the log jam they have at the forward position will help the young Chinese star going forward.

# 7 Corey Brewer, Minnesota

Key Stats: 5.4 points 3.9 rebounds.

Given his playing time, Brewer has contributed the least of any guy in this group thus far. His minutes and numbers have been steadily declining as the season has progressed, unlike many of the other rookies in this class. Brewer has become more of a defensive stopper in Minnesota and gotten lost in the shuffle of the team's numerous guard/SF options. Right now he has little fantasy value.

#8 Brandon Wright, Golden State Warriors

Key Stats: 2.9 points 2.4 rebounds.

Brandon Wright, who was dealt to Golden State in the draft day trade that sent Jason Richardson to Charlotte, is a good fit for the Nelly's high energy high energy, fast-paced system. However, Wright has not cracked the rotation and has spent most his time on the bench. Right now, he has no fantasy value and I dont see him being a fantasy contributor anytime in the near future.

#9 Joakim Noah, Chicago Bulls

Key Stats: 4.4 points 3.6 rebounds PER (Player Efficiency Rating) 18.05.

Coming out of college Noah was never really thought of as a perennial all star but more for being a Shane Battier type - good teammate who provides the intangibles on offense and defense with a desire to win at all costs. He probably should not have been drafted this high by Chicago, and hopefully was not drafted at all by you. Noah's career has already gotten off to a rocky start in Chicago, however, despite his limited minutes, Noah leads all rookies in efficiency. It's looking more and more like Ben Wallace's tenure in Chicago is coming to a close and if he is dealt Noah's value would immediately increase. However, there are a few too many ifs and what ifs involved to take owning him seriously. Check back on him in 1-2 years OR whenever the corpse formerly known as Big Ben is shipped out of town.

#10 Spencer Hawes, Sacramento Kings

Key Stats: 2.6 points 2 rebounds.


Chris Dudley + Felton Spencer = Spencer Hawes

Like we pondered in an earlier post regarding Hawes - How many drafts has the phrase "you can't teach size" killed?

Remember, these are only initial reports a few months into the season. Some of these players have proven they belong while other are still trying to find their niche in the NBA and show they can play with the big boys.

Stay tuned at the end of the season when we can reevaluate all these players to see if their outlook has changed.

Jason Jennings Signs With Texas - Could Have Some Fantasy Upside In Arlington

During his seven year major league career, Jason Jennings has never pitched in anything resembling a pitcher's park. He spent his first six seasons with the Rockies playing in the pitcher's graveyard known as Coors Field. The tombs of Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle can be seen just beyond the bullpen shrubbery. Last offseason, Jennings was dealt to Houston and struggled mightily at Minute Maid Park (formerly known as "1o run field") in 2007. It should be noted he battled with injuries for most of the year and was eventually shut down in August; however, a 2-9 record with a 6.45 ERA is hard to excuse.

ESPN's Jerry Crasnick is reporting that Jennings has signed a 1 year deal with the Texas Rangers for a base of 4 million with another 4 million in incentives written in. The Dallas native now heads to the launching pad in Arlington, where he will join a rotation featuring the likes of veteran Kevin Millwood, youngsters Brandon McCarthy and Kason Gabbard and outright albatross Vincente Padilla.

The righty is still recovering from a torn flexor tendon in his throwing elbow which cut short his forgettable 2007 campaign in August after only 19 starts. However, he has been throwing off a mound and the Rangers expect him ready for opening day.

Fantasy Impact

Jennings had his finest season as a pro not in 2002 when he posted a career high in wins going 16-8 but rather in 2006 when he amassed a record of 9-13 which appears rather dumpy on the surface. Jennings posted the best ERA (3.78) and WHIP (1.37) of his career in 2006 and had 19 quality starts in 32 outings. Even more impressive, Jennings had a better ERA at home (3.56) than on the road (3.97). Unfortunately, due to receiving the lowest run support in the NL and some tough luck losses of the complete game 1-0 variety, his record failed to reflect his success.

Jennings showed in 2006 that he could succeed in a true hitter's park and Arlington, especially in the hot summer months, is no different. At this juncture coming off injury, I consider Jennings a true wild card. He will most likely struggle early in the season as he gets back into game action and continues to trust his elbow again.

As the season wears on, the keys to Jennings' success will be in regaining the control he had in his stellar 2006 campaign. This allowed him not only to cut down his walks, but also to limit long balls while registering a career high in strikeouts. In addition to keeping the ball down and inducing grounders, the strikeout is a pitcher's best friend in hitter's parks where the ball tends to carry.

Jennings' should be drafted in AL-only leagues and mixed format players with deep rosters could do worse in some cases than taking a flier on the 29 year old. He has shown good ability in the past and while it may take some time, Jennings could quietly put up some good numbers in Texas as he pitches for his next big contract.

New Contracts, Same Fantasy Baseball Spot Starters - Robertson Resigns With Detroit, Lieber To The Cubs

Nate Robertson and Jon Lieber sealed their 2008 fates today. Robertson resigned with the Tigers to the tune of 3 years 21.25 million while Lieber agreed to a 1 year 3.5 million dollar deal with the Cubs. Neither pitcher had a big impact on the fantasy baseball landscape in 2007 and that should continue to be the case in 2008.

Nate Robertson

Robertson went 9-13 with a 4.76 ERA in 2007, dropping off considerably after generating some waiver wire buzz early in the season after a hot start in April (2-1 2.43 ERA). Robertson battled a tired arm for much of June then struggled mightily upon his return in July and August before finishing the season with a respectable 3.76 ERA in 6 September starts. 

With the addition of Dontrelle Willis from Florida earlier this winter, Robertson will be the Tigers' 5th starter entering the season rounding out a rotation that features Justin Verlander, D-Train, Jeremy Bonderman and Kenny Rogers.

Jon Lieber

Lieber returns to the northside of Chicago where he won 20 games back in 2001. The veteran righty, who will be 38 come April 2nd, hasn't enjoyed anything close to that kind of success lately compiling a 12-17 mark in 39 starts over the last two seasons with the Phillies. He has also missed a good number of starts over that time with a variety of ailments. 

Lieber has reportedly been guaranteed a rotation spot and currently would slot in as the team's fourth or fifth starter in a rotation that is headed by Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly and Jeff Suppan. The signing of Lieber leaves one open spot in the Cubs' starting rotation and three candidates - Ryan Dempster, Jason Marquis and Sean Marshall. My educated guess would be that Ryan Dempster returns to the bullpen while the promising Sean Marshall assumes the final rotation spot. Jason Marquis is a candidate to be traded although the Cubs will have to eat some money in any potential deal. 

Fantasy Impact

Both Robertson and Lieber will be backed by potent offenses. However, they are nothing more than spot starters to be used in favorable matchups against weaker opponents or (if your feeling saucy) teams they've had past success against. Out of the two, Robertson is the guy with greater potential given the park he plays in and his age. But until he shows some consistency, his fantasy value remains limited.

Mustache At Shea In '08? Mets Sign Jose Valentin To Minor League Deal

Looks like Mets fans might be able to enjoy Jose Valentin's mustache for one more year after all. The New York Post is reporting that Valentin has agreed to a minor league deal with the club which includes a spring training invite. If he makes the team, he will earn 1 million dollars this year.

The Mets resigned Luis Castillo to a four year deal earlier this offseason to be the starting second base in 2008. Thus, if he were to make the squad, Valentin will be nothing more than a utility infielder coming off of the bench.

More than anything, this post was a good excuse to show a picture of Jose's mustache, which ranks among the elite.

5 Stopgap Fantasy Basketball Forwards

As those of you who have scoured the fantasy basketball waiver wire have probably noticed, the pickings are quite slim. As a service to those with injury-ravaged rosters, in the next 3 days FSE will name 5 stopgap options at each position. 

It is important to note that many of these guys tend to be inconsistent and as such cannot be recommended as fantasy regulars. However, for fantasy owners in a pinch, these players can serve as adequate backups and have the potential to provide a solid performance given the right matchup. Today, we focus on the forward position:

1. Anderson Varejao - Since returning to the team following an extended holdout, Varejao has worked his way back into the Cavs rotation and is beginning to get starter minutes again. He has had a few big games and is averaging around 8 points and 9 rebounds a game.  Of all the guys on this list, Anderson has the best chance to be a bonafide double-double threat and become a solid bench option at the forward position. 
2. Luis Scola - The 27 year old Argentinian star has been up and down this season due to a great fluctuation in his playing time from game to game. Scola has begun to receive more consistent playing time of late and has responded with some big scoring outputs. In fact, over the last month when playing 24+ minutes, Scola is averaging 16.8 points and 7.3 rebounds. He's a good play against weaker defensive teams now and could make a bigger impact as the season wears on.
3. Travis Outlaw - Outlaw was actually a hot commodity in early-mid December where he registered five 20 point outings in a 7 game span; however, as the month wore his minutes dwindled a bit hurting his production. Outlaw has found himself back on the waiver wire in many leagues despite posting a solid 13.2 points and 5.3 rebounds thus far in January. The Blazers have been playing really well for a while now and Outlaw is a big part of that success. He can provide admirable contributions for a team in need.
4. Luke Walton - Walton's value raises with the recent injury to Andrew Bynum. As I wrote here yesterday, the Lakers may choose to play a smaller lineup more often in the wake of the Bynum injury. This would give the versatile Walton a greater chance to contribute in a variety of statistical categories including points, rebounds and assists. He has been getting consistent minutes in January, topping the 30 minute mark 4 times in his last 6 games. If this continues he has the potential to put up 10+ points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists on any given night, making him a worthy complementary piece on your roster.
5. Mark Blount - He is the guy I have the least confidence in on this list, but given Miami's woes and Shaq's decaying health, Blount may be in line for starter minutes soon. In the month of January, Blount has been starting in place of an injured Shaq and playing around 30 minutes a night. In that time he is averaging a very serviceable 14 points and 5 rebounds. Shaq is scheduled to be in the lineup as the Heat face the Chicago Bulls tomorrow night, so you may want to hold off on Blount for the time being. But keep him in mind because it is almost a certainty that Shaq will be shutdown sooner rather than later as the Heat's season is all but over. 

Bedard, Blanton, Santana Updates

It seems like this off season has been a tiring array of the near miss trade talks. We break down the three pitchers left standing, the teams they are rumored to go to, and the teams that make the most sense to us.

Erik Bedard: Rumored to be close to going Seattle in a package for Adam Jones, Brandon Marrow and various other minor leaguers. We have already commented on the impact of this potential trade, and why it makes sense for these teams. But these rumors are getting old fast, and it is getting to the point of, for lack of a better term, "get off the pot, or piss" for Seattle.

Sleeper Team Not Mentioned: How about the Dodgers? After seeing Arizona add another ace in Dan Haren to go along with Brandon Webb, the Dodgers have to make a move to try and keep up with last season's NL West winner. The Dodger's starting rotation currently consists of Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, Chad Billingsley, Hiroka Kuroda, and Jason Schmidt. The rotation is deep, but lacks a clear, number one ace. Kuroda, Schmidt, and even Billingsley all enter the '08 season with their own question marks for various reasons, whether it be injury (Schmidt) or inexperience (Billingsley, Kuroda). Bedard would give them a clear ace, add depth, and give the Dodgers a chance to put one of the questionable aforementioned starters into the bullpen. It could also allow Schmidt more time to rehab from the surgery on his shoulder in the minor leagues or in extended spring training.

The Dodgers also have the depth to make the trade. They will start the season with either Andre Ethier or Matt Kemp coming off the bench. Both are young players, who are ready to play in the majors on a full time basis. Another season in the minors or coming off the bench, would do neither player any good. Either player would probably thrive with the opportunity to play everyday. The Dodgers could offer a deal centered around Either, or Kemp and a reliever like Jonathan Broxton, or Scott Proctor.

Joe Blanton: Has been linked to the Mets and Dodgers mostly in trade rumors. There has been no clear cut favorite that has seemed to put an all or nothing offer on the table and recently there are reports that the A's won't trade Blanton at all.

Sleeper Team Not Mentioned: The Cincinnati Reds. The Reds have been linked to Bedard, but don't want to give up Homer Bailey, in a trade for the Baltimore ace. It might be possible for the Reds to offer a trade to the the A's built around 1B Joey Votto. The A's currently have Daric Barton slotted to start the season at firstbase. Barton is a fine prospect who has shown an ability to get on base in the minors, but has done little in the way of power or an ability to knock in runs. Barton did hit 4 homeruns in a stint with the A's last season, but there really isn't a track record to show this wasn't anything more than an aberration. Votto, like Barton is young, but might be more of a Billy Beane guy, who can get on base and slug a 3run homer when needed. Of course Beane could also hold onto both and deal DH Jack Cust in an attempt to free up playing time for both firstbasmen.

The Reds on the other hand, could move Adam Dunn to first and play the speedster Norris Hopper in his place everyday in the outfield field. They could also go with a platoon of Jeff Keppinger and Scott Hatteberg at first and not worry about moving anyone.
This would allow the Reds to have a clear rotation of Aaron Harang, Joe Blanton, Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey and either Edison Volquez or Matt Belisle (which ever one doesn't make the rotation would be an excellent fit in the bullpen). The move would add a pitcher, adds depth and would come at a lower cost than Bedard. The Reds already have a clear ace in Aaron Harang, there is no reason for them to overpay to get another one from Baltimore.

Johan Santana: Rumored to be going to the Red Sox, Yankees, and Mets. All of these rumors have been alive for well over a month, since the end of the MLB's winter meetings. Recently, the Mets have become the frontrunner in the Santana Sweepstakes, but have yet to pull the trigger on a deal. In my opinion, the Mets should give up whatever it takes to win in the next season or two. There are various prospects the Mets are unwilling to give up right now, but with only another one to two seasons left in Pedro Martinez, and Carlos Delgado, it might be worth it for the Mets to mortgage the future to worry about the now.

Sleeper Team Not Mentioned: Seattle Mariners. Sure they are in talks for Bedard, but what if they get turned off by Baltimore's overwhelming demands? Why go for Bedard, when a similar package could land the best pitcher in baseball? They were mentioned early on for Santana, but they could get back in it if the rest of the teams maintain their posturing. Seattle has the prospects and (being owned by Nintendo) they certainly have the money to invest in Santana. This would give Seattle a 1-2 of Johan Santana and Felix Hernandez to go along with Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista and Carlos Silva. It would also allow them to move Horacio Ramirez, either via trade or bullpen. The move to having a 1-2 of Santana and Hernandez could help in Seattle's chances to beat out the Angels for the top spot in the division.

Most of this is nothing but speculation and innuendo, but the bottom line is, at least one of these guys are going to get traded.

Andrew Bynum Out 8 Weeks - How Much Can Kwame Brown Help You Now?

It was learned today that Andrew Bynum will miss the next eight weeks with a knee injury suffered last night when the young center stepped on teammate Lamar Odom's foot after coming down with a rebound. Bynum has a history of knee problems dating back to his high school days, so you can bet the Lakers will monitor his condition closely and wont rush to get him back in the lineup.

The Bynum injury is unfortunate as it comes on the heels of a breakout season for the 20 year-old big man. Despite averaging only 28 minutes a night, Bynum is putting up a double-double (13.1 points and 10.2 rebounds) while blocking 2 shots a game. Bynum has been especially good lately. In his last 5 games (not counting last night's game) Bynum had thrown up 3 double-doubles and was averaging a staggering 18.8 points 12.8 rebounds and 3 blocks a contest.

Now that Bynum is out for an extended period of time, fantasy owners (like myself) will be scrambling to make up for his loss. As far as an internal solution is concerned, with Chris Mihm scheduled to miss 3-4 weeks with a sore heel, Kwame Brown becomes the Lakers' starting center by default.

Brown has underachieved mightily since arriving in Lakerland as the centerpiece of the Caron Butler trade. While Butler has gone on to become an all-star forward for the Wizards, Brown had been averaging about 8 points and 6 rebounds a game in 27 minutes his first two seasons in LA.

With the emergence of Bynum, Brown has been relegated to the bench and seen his playing time and numbers drop significantly. Currently, Brown is averaging about 5 points and 5 rebounds a game in 20 minutes of play. If he is given 30 plus minutes a night, a good possibility given the team's lack of options, he is a candidate to give you around 8-10 points and rebounds with one block.

Overall, Brown is a pretty good add in deeper leagues and should provide serviceable big man numbers - especially this week as the Lakers face three weak defensive squads in Seattle, Phoenix and Denver. However, my major reservation going forward stems from Phil Jackson's lack of confidence in him.

With guys like Ronny Turiaf and Luke Walton on the roster, two guys that fit in well to his triangle offense, the Lakers may choose to go small more often with a front court of Turiaf, Odom and Walton. This could take away from Brown's playing time as he will need the aforementioned 30 plus minutes to be a factor in fantasy. Keep an eye on Jackson's lineups and substitution patterns over the next few weeks when attempting to gauge Brown's value.

Check back tomorrow as I run down my list of five add-worthy Centers & Forwards that are currently flying under the radar.

Dear Mr. Owens,

Dear Mr. Owens,

It's only a game, it's only the playoffs! Who cares that you haven't won a playoff game with the Cowboys. Who cares that you have never won a super bowl? Who cares that your career is mimicking Barry Bonds, sans the hall of fame stats. Who cares that your QB was vacationing while he should have been reading his playbook. Things have been much worse for you and it's okay you can enjoy your popcorn next week while you watch the Championship games.

Don't cry Mr. Owens, please don't cry. I know you keep telling us, "It's not fair" But, was it fair when you labelled Jeff Garcia as a homosexual? Was it fair when you poisoned the entire Eagles franchise. Who knew anything from Philly could become more evil? I know winning your division is a great accomplishment and something to be proud of, but losing in the playoffs after a great season is kind of like kissing your sister... Oh wait, you did that already, or did you?

I know it must be tough for you and I hope you can survive this off season without any prescriptions. It must be tough to lose, maybe Karma is skipping a life and catching up with you in this life. Usually karma waits till the next life, but I think your attitude, your mouth, and your actions have caught up with you.

Do you really think we buy this crying thing? All of a sudden you support a Quarterback? Come on, please! The next month will be so much better without you around Mr. Owens. So here is my advice, get yourself some popcorn and get cozy in that million dollar recliner you probably have. If you can't find any popcorn, give the Giants a call and I am sure they call help you out.

Pay careful attention to this guy who plays in New England. His name is Tom Brady, he is better than you, he gets more attention than you because he does his job and doesn't beg for attention. Learn a lesson from Randy Moss. He put his ego aside and wanted to be apart of a winning team. If you had the stats he had this weekend, 1 catch for 14 yards, you would have flipped out, called out your quarterback and caused a scene. Spare me the drama Terrell, seriously I'm over it.

Dr. P

P.S. - Call me if you have any questions about your prescription.

Frank Reich 2K8

As I was watching the amazing Billy Volek enter the game, I like the rest of us figured he would just hand the ball off a few times and Philip "I yell at everyone" Rivers would hobble back in and blow the game. I was wrong in several ways. I was wrong in thinking Philip Rivers was a tough quarterback that could play through injuries. I was wrong in thinking that Billy Volek would just hand the ball off and wait to be saved by the starter.

Volek performed admirably in the 4th quarter of the Chargers upset victory over the Colts, but this scenario is nothing new. Years ago, back when mustaches were en vogue and Gun n' Roses was still together, there was a great man named Frank Reich. Like Volek, he had the skills to be a starter, but was stuck behind a more talented quarterback Jim Kelly. Reich sat and sat and sat and sat, until he got his chance!

Reich led the Bills back from a 32 point deficit in their 1992 playoff game against the Houston Oilers en route to a 41-38 victory in overtime. Reich would then help the Bills defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers before Kelly returned, to lead the Bills into Super Bowl XXVII, where they fell to the Dallas Cowboys 52-17.


Does Billy Volek have something like this up his sleeve? Can he lead the Chargers past the big, bad Patriots? If he does, will they give the team back to Philip Rivers when it comes to crunch time? Only time will tell and only Billy knows what will happen next. Billy you are the 2k8 version of Frank Reich, if you get another start, beat the Patriots and somehow win the Superbowl, you will move up to Jeff Hostetler status. GO BILLY!

Colts Get Voleked; Reality Imitates 2004 Fantasy

I am sure many of us watching the Colts- Chargers game knew for sure that San Diego had Indianapolis right where they wanted them, once Billy Volek came in. The year was 2004 and many of us met Billy Volek for the first time. He was a back up for Steve McNair and filled in admirably at times, and unworldly at other times. Specifically weeks 14 and 15 of that football season, or in fantasy terms the start of the playoffs.

The fledgling fantasy team that barely made the playoffs and had a weakness at quarterback, proceeded to take a flier on Volek, and immediately became a fantasy post season juggernaut. In week 14 Volek threw for 426 yards and 4TDs, in week 15 Volek threw for 492yards and 4TDs again, only this time he also ran for a TD. Thats 2 weeks, 918yards, and 9TDs.

It was at this time I invented the term "Voleked" to describe when an average player has an unworldly effort to help beat another team. Volek for 2 weeks became the greatest player on the face of the earth and ruined many people. This is some what equivalent to 1998 when Sterling Hitchcock became the greatest pitcher in the world for the month of October, and carried the Padres to the World Series.

I think there are many, many of us with a 2004 Billy Volek, heartbreaking story to tell. Please comment and post your story of being "Voleked" as a way to help Colts fans in their time of need.

Your Fantasy Radar - Second Base

Did you let this man slide under your fantasy radar last year? That my friends is Brandon Phillips and in case you did not know, he went 30/30 last year. Brandon plays second base for the Reds. He is, in my opinion the second best second basemen in baseball.

In 2003, Brandon played the entire season in Cleveland and he was awful. With his Pokey Reese style hat, his skills were to match. Over the next two years Phillips had few opportunities to play with the Indians and was eventually traded to Cincinnati for the infamous, player to be named later. Once in Cincy Phillips was surrounded by superstars like Rich Aurillia and Ken Griffey Jr. I call Aurillia a superstar because for some reason they batted him 4th. Anyways The change of scenery helped the young Phillips blossom into the 30/30 man he is today. Many experts say Phillips will return to his 2006 form (276, 17hr, 75 RBI, and 25 SB). I tend to disagree, first off look at where he is playing? This stadium made Rich Aurillia look like a solid player. Second, he is a year older and a year wiser. He is learning the pitchers and is approaching that infamous age of 27, that's the year when baseball player apparently learn how to play.

My Top 5 Second Basemen

1) Chase Utley - Even though he was hurt last year for a time, he still put up great numbers and he still has Ryan Howard on his team.

2) Brandon Phillips - See Above

3) BJ Upton - First off last year I drafted BJ Upton and claimed he would be the next Chone Figgins. I even said he would be better than Chone Figgins. So what did I do the day before opening day? I traded him for Kei Igawa. Needless to say Upton then went on to bat .300 and be a 20/20 player who can play everywhere! In many fantasy formats upton may still be available at 2b, however he has recently moved to the outfield. Nice trade I made.

4) Robinson Cano- Not as good as his 2006 campaign, but I don't think he made out in the month of August. Not much for speed, but boy is that stroke smooth. Oh yea he plays for the Yankees too and sometimes bats 8th.

5) Ian Kinlser - 2 years in the league and this guy has already gone 20/20! Fairweather fantasy owners may not notice Kinsler and this could make a good value. A wise man once told me that if you want to win a fantasy baseball league, you build your team around 20/20 guys. Kinsler, in Texas may even be able to reach 30/30 once he learns the pitchers and matures. Look for this guy to make a big splash very soon.

Honorable Mentions

Dan Uggla- I love the long ball, I love the fact that a second basemen can hit 30 homers. I love Dan Uggla, he is on an awful team and really has nothing to play for but himself. Last year Uggla slugged 31 homers, but batted .245. If you need pop, this guy may be the answer to your empty second base slot.

Rickie Weeks- For real this time! No really, this time he is for real.

A Few Parting Thoughts

This year, you must pay attention to the stats very carefully, you don't want to end up like this! This is what happens when you draft players you haven't researched!

And of course, this is what happens when you draft Scott Rolen!

Listen to me when it comes to Fantasy, my real life might suck, but at least my fantasies are tolerable! Coming soon, the relief pitcher preview.

Antonio Gates Playing Today and The Impact It Will Have on The Game

ESPN's John Clayton is reporting that San Diego Tight End Antonio Gates WILL play today against the Indianapolis Colts. Gates was listed as doubtful because of a dislocated left big toe. There is no word as to how long or for how many plays he will be able to be out there for, but expect Gates to be able to act the part of a decoy on most plays.

He is by far Philip Rivers favorite target, especially to go to when in trouble. If Gates gets knocked out of the game expect Rivers to really struggle to move the ball down field.

If you are in a NFL fantasy playoff league and don't have someone else to put out there you might as well throw Gates out there. There aren't exactly too many other options.

Busch Looks Strong in Gibbs Debut: Fantasy Implications

Kyle Busch posted the fastest testing lap time at Daytona International Speedway to conclude the three day event. This shows the Toyota cars can hang with the big boys. Following a season where the Toyota's posted mostly mediocre finishes, this looks to be a positive step forward in their attempts to hang with the big boys at Chevy, and Dodge.

Fantasy Implications

This is a strong message for Joe Gibbs Racing and their drivers, "Don't worry about the cars." I am sure there were many worries about Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin this season because of the car switch. Now it looks like, both should be fine this season, and expect Kyle Busch to be extra motivated to stick it to his former teammates at Hendrick Motorsports, after being blackballed out of the organization last season.

Personal Thoughts about Rolen and Glaus

I personally don't believe this deal will get entirely done. let's think about this here. We are asking the two most often injured baseball players in recent history to pass physicals? This would be the equivalent of me trading my 89 Cavalier, with bad brakes, 190k miles on it, and a bad alignment for a Chevy Blazer with a broken back window and4 bald tires. Neither of these player can last an entire season. If these two players were used cars, they would be considered lemons.

THE DRAMA BEGINS:

Late last season, Rolen took it upon himself to sabotage my Fantasy playoff hopes and dreams. His late season defensive collapse and lack of offense (.265 avg, 8 Hrs, 58 RBI) ruined many fantasy squads across the nation. His past stats kept most of us hanging on and starting him everyday until the inevitable happened, and you realized he screwed you in 2007.

THE OTHER GUY:

Troy Glaus has been playing for ten years, However in three of those season he played less than 115 games and was injured. Glaus had a tremendous 2006 season, but was hurt for the better part of 2007. take your chances on Glaus this year, he should be a better option than Mr. Rolen. Better bat, better glove, better attitude, and he never screwed me. Go Glaus!

Did you Know that Troy Glaus played 6 games at shortstop for the Blue Jays in 2006? If Rolen was asked to play shortstop for his team, I'm sure he would complain, hold out, or all of a sudden be hurt. Not a team player, and most certainly not one of "My Guys".

Kotsay to the Braves a Done Deal; Fantasy Impact

UPDATED 1/14/08
Mark Kotsay will be heading to the Braves in a deal made Saturday, and finalized Monday, with the Oakland A's. Oakland gets righty reliever Joey Devine, who could be used as a replacement if/when the A's trade closer Houston Street.

Fantasy Impact

Kotsay has been oft injured and an ineffective fantasy player since his career season of 2004. Joey Devine really has no shot of closing, because he doesn't have a ton of major league experience. If either player were on your draft board, your team probably doesn't deserve to win anyway.

Rolen Traded For Glaus Fantasy Impact

UPDATED 1/14/08
Scott Rolen is finally leaving St. Louis, going to Toronto for Troy Glaus. The trade was pending physicals from both players, and that were finalized and approved by team doctors Monday. Rolen's shoulder issues were well documented when Tony LaRussa benched him in the playoffs, where the original feud between player and manager began. Glaus has had problems with his feet caused by playing on the artificial turf in Toronto. A change of scenery could do both players well, as injury cost both a good chunk of last season.

St. Louis Gets

Troy Glaus, before 2007, he was a perennial 30+ home run a season hitter. If he can stay healthy in St Louis, hitting behind Albert Pujols, Glaus could be in for another solid season, of 35hr, and 90rbis. Glaus can hit, that won't be the issue, the issue will be if the move to the natural playing surface can really impact his health and keep him in the line up. Glaus managed 115 games last season, hitting 20hr, with 60rbis, and a .262ba. If not for the injury these numbers look to be on par with what he normally does.

Toronto Gets

Scott Rolen, in his prime a slugging thirdbaseman, who could hit for power, average, and even steal a bag. Rolen really slumped last season, he managed only 112 games, hitting 8 hr, with 58rbis and hitting only .265. These are numbers more indicitive of a middle infielder than a once great slugger. I would be more worried about Rolen in this deal, because the injuries effect his game much more than they do Glaus'. The shoulder injury really sapped him of his power, and even his ability to hit for average. He did have off season surgery to try to repair the shoulder issue, but from a fantasy perspective, why draft a guy with the hope that surgery might help his numbers. You would be better off taking a guy you know will be healthy and at least will put up numbers consistently when healthy. Glaus might be hurt a lot, but he hits when he is on the field. Rolen, even when he was healthy last season didn't hit.

BOTTOM LINE

Personally I don't either is worth drafting or getting excited over because of this trade. First off, I rarely draft guys who are a known injury risk, and I don't like how 1-2 dimensional these players are at this point in their respective careers. In a pinch I would value Glaus over Rolen.

Dolan Admits He Has To Fire Isiah Thomas as Head Coach

It has been a long season for the New York Knicks and coach Isiah Thomas. The fans hate Isiah, the players are constantly jarring with Isiah, even officials are battling Isiah. Now, according to the New York Daily News, it seems as if Isiah Thomas' last supporter, Knick owner James Dolan, might be wavering in his devotion to the Knick coach. Sources close to Dolan recently revealed that he knows a "coaching change" must be made and he is preparing to do so.
There is no doubt that the Knicks have a talented roster, and have been underachieving all season long. Every time it seems as if the Knicks are ready to take a step forward, they take a big step back, like they have this season. It is unclear in the article if Dolan just plans to fire Isiah as the head coach, or from all his basketball duties with the Knicks.

More on this later, along with the fantasy implications for all the Knick players

Mike Cameron Signs With Milwaukee - Fantasy Values Of Ryan Braun & Bill Hall Impacted

Reinforcing an earlier post in which we declared the rumors linking Mike Cameron to the Yankees as a fabrication, Ken Rosenthal is reporting that Cameron has signed a one-year deal to play center field for the Milwaukee Brewers with a club option for 2009.

The signing should benefit Cameron who moves from one of the best pitchers parks in baseball to one of the best hitters parks. He also joins a far superior lineup in Milwaukee, which lead the National League in homeruns last season.

Cameron, a perennial 20-20 threat (homeruns & stolen bases), could hit anywhere from second to seventh in a loaded Brewers lineup. If he ends up in the two hole, fantasy owners will enjoy solid run and stolen base numbers in addition to his power numbers which should get a boost as he leaves Cavernous Petco Park behind.

Remember, Cameron is suspended for the first 25 games of the season after testing positive for stimulants; however, he still has a chance to finish around the 20-15 - 20-20 range. Just don't count on him for any semblance of help in batting average and be wary of his high strikeout totals if you count that statistic.

With Cameron in center, the Brewers will now be able to move young slugger Ryan Braun to left field. Braun, who put up incredible numbers last season - 34 HR 97 RBI 15 SB - especially since he was a rookie who only played in 112 games. Now, he will now be an outfielder with 3B eligibility which should eliminate his only fantasy shortcoming, errors, while providing fantasy owners with great flexibility in setting lineups. Braun committed 26 errors in only 112 games at third base last season which is awful anyway you slice it. Phil will have plenty more for us on Braun as the season approaches

Presumably this signing pushes the versatile Bill Hall back to third base from the outfield. However, the Brewers may now be inclined to trade him for starting pitching help and I would imagine several teams are interested in adding his services. Until we hear a definitive statement from the Brewers about Hall being their third baseman or a trade is made ensuring he plays everyday, I would consider his value in limbo.

Johan Santana Will End Up A New York Met

A few months back when Johan Santana officially hit the trade market with the Yankees and Red Sox immediately becoming his top suitors, FSE's own Phil flatly proclaimed that in the end, Santana would be a New York Met.

Given the myriad of rumors that have surfaced since linking Santana to nearly half of the team in the MLB as well as the off again-on again rumors involving the Yanks and Sox, we have held off writing about Santana, until now.

In addition to FSE, I also write for Giggin On Ya, a blog which focuses on the New York Mets, Knicks, Giants and New Jersey Nets along with anything we deem important in the national sports scene.

Follow the link to read why Santana Will Be A Met By Month's End.

Mike Cameron To... The Yankees? Don't Believe it!

Ken Rosenthal is reporting the Yanks have entered talks to sign Mike Cameron. This seems like a rumor started by Cameron's agents and there are a variety of reasons why this is false:

1) Why would the Yankees pay for a center fielder, when they have one in Melky Cabrera? Some would say it is because they want to trade Melky in a package for Johan Santana. The Yankees have already made it clear that the main reason they haven't pursued Johan more vigorously is because they aren't sure if it is worth it to pay him big money for 6-7 years when the payroll is already really high. So if this were true the Yankees would have to pay Johan what he wants as well as Mike Cameron, figure another 35 million in payroll on top of an already huge payroll. That's right the team without payroll constrictions now has payroll constrictions, mark it down.

2) The Yankees have far too many problems with steroids, HGH and the Mitchell Report in general to sign a guy who is suspended for the first 25 games because of performance-enhancing drug use. The Yankees have no desire to further the negative publicity, locally or nationally, as the media could use this signing to draw further attention to the players on the championship teams of the late 90's being questioned as cheaters.

3) In an offseason filled with talk about how many teams need a good center fielder, the greatest interest Mike Cameron is receiving comes from the Milwaukee Brewers. It must be killing Cameron and his agents to know that just a year ago Gary Matthew's Jr. signed a contract for more than 10 million a season and there is a good chance he won't get near that amount. In a dwindling market with a client who must serve a PED-related suspension, Cameron's agent(s) are desperate right now. Thus it is feasable, they are floating false Yankee rumors and innuendo to try to up the ante for Milwaukee.

4) The Mets have recently become the front runners in the Johan sweepstakes, leading some to believe that the Yanks might jump back into the Santana Sweepstakes. Cameron's agents are definitely capitalizing on this news to stir the pot and get people thinking the Yanks are interested in their client, as a replacement for Melky.

Bottom line, rumors are nice and make for good press, but please don't buy it here.

Fantasy Baller On The Brink: Al Thornton

Entering the 2007 draft, I felt Florida State Forward Al Thornton was the most NBA-ready player outside of the draft's consensus top three picks - Greg Oden, Kevin Durant and Al Horford -and a guy who could make an immediate impact given the right situation. Thornton slipped to the Clippers at 14 mostly because of his age (he's 24) and as such his lack of, you guessed it, "upside." I hope the Kings enjoy #10 pick Spencer Hawes, the reincarnation of Bryant Reeves AKA Big Country, as their slow, white center of the future. Sometimes I wonder how many drafts the phrase "can't teach size" has sunk...

Anyway, after getting off to a slow start due to a lack of playing time, (the Clips were hot early and playing their vets) Thornton is starting to come on. Over his last seven games Thornton is averaging 14.7 points and 5.3 rebounds a game. More importantly, he meets the two requirements I established in a previous post aimed at helping managers identify young players that are add-worthy rather than a tease. Speaking of which, check out Nate Robinson's game log and if you haven't already, go ahead and pick him up. His production is no fluke.

Requirement One - Consistently Playing 25 minutes/game

Thornton has started 6 0f the Clippers last 7 games. He has eclipsed the golden 25 minutes/game mark 5 times and is averaging a solid 31 minutes a night over that span. A telling stat regarding Thornton's offensive production relative to his playing time can be found in the 7 games Thornton played at least 25 minutes. In those contests, he has scored in double figures 6 times and had 5 or more rebounds 5 times.

Requirement Two - Will maintain/expand current role going forward because team is losing OR on the verge of trading veteran players.

If you haven't noticed, the Clippers are a bad team (currently standing at 10-22) with no plans of contending right now especially as their best player, Elton Brand, recovers from a ruptured left achilles - his return this season remains questionable. As such, the Clippers have been giving more and more minutes to Thornton rather than the mediocre vets (See: Tim Thomas, Cuttino Mobley and Brevin Knight) who are now relegated to the bench. As further reassurance for fantasy owners, since Corey Maggette's return from injury 2 weeks ago, Thornton has continued to get starts alongside the former Duke star. This is big because outside of Brand, Maggette would be the biggest threat to Thornton's playing time.

Going forward, I don't see why Thornton couldn't put up around 16 points and 6 rebounds a night with the potential of adding to those totals as the season progresses. His playing time should remain consistent or increase with the only real threat to his value being the return of Elton Brand to the starting lineup, which I doubt we'll see anytime soon.

So friends feel free to pick up Thornton now. He will be a nice addition to your bench as we inch closer to playoff time.

Joe Gibbs Will Win The Big One in 2008

Don't be fooled by the title of the article, we all know Joe Gibbs NFL football coach has retired. But most of us seem to forget that Joe Gibbs NASCAR team owner is alive and well. Gibbs heads into the 2008 season with arguably the best stable of drivers in all of NASCAR.
The Gibbs racing staff is anchored by two time Cup winner Tony Stewart. Stewart's fire and fierce competitiveness make him, not only a perennial Cup favorite, but also one of the most talented racers in the entire world. Most of the time, Stewart's worst enemy is himself. He gets frustrated easily behind the wheel, and is prone to making overly aggressive moves that at best irk other drivers and at worst are a constant safety hazard.

Flanking him are two of the most talented, young racers in all of NASCAR in Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin. Formerly of Hendrick Motorsports, Kyle Busch enters Joe Gibbs racing with an already very impressive NASCAR resume. Entering his fourth season as a full time Cup driver, Busch's brash, aggressive driving style often rubs other drivers the wrong way. Busch has been called everything from immature, to down right reckless at times on the racetrack. He has often been accused of not following some of the unwritten rules of NASCAR etiquette on the racetrack. It was probably these things that fueled Hendrick Motorsports, to replacement him with Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Denny Hamlin, on the other hand is more laid back and certainly doesn't have the reputation of his counter part. Hamlin, entering only his third full season as a Cup driver, and has already made it to the Race for the Chase championship twice. He certainly will once again be a formidable driver once again this season for the Joe Gibbs Racing team.

The biggest problem the Joe Gibbs Racing will face in 2008 is Hendrick Motorsports. Hendrick Motorsports, certainly had one of the most dominating seasons in NASCAR history. It wasn't enough for Hendrick to boast Cup champs Jimmie Johnson, and Jeff Gordon on their roster, they proved to be light years ahead in the research and development of the Car of Tomorrow. Add to that the addition of the aforementioned Earnhardt Jr. and one would figure that a Hendrick driver would be a shoe in for a repeat Cup championship.

Aside from the obvious challenges that may arise from Hendrick Motorsports, the other major Gibbs Racing roadblock on the way to the Cup will be their switch to using Toyota cars. The Toyota made its debut last season as a Cup car, and it proved to be mediocre at best. The cars didn't have many catastrophic failures, like the DEI cars did, instead they were just consistently mediocre. Despite all this, I find it hard to believe the Gibbs racing team (that is in constant competition for a championship) would move to a car they found to be unreliable, or just a substandard product in general. If they are putting their trust in the Toyota product, they must know the car must be built well enough to help them contend for a championship.

This is why I believe the influence and calming leadership of Joe Gibbs will have to be the difference maker, in order to the Gibbs Racing drivers to fulfill their full potential. There is certainly a lot of attitude and competitiveness with Stewart and Busch, and Denny Hamlin will go into next season as hungry as ever. This could be the perfect recipe for disaster, if Joe Gibbs wasn't the chef stirring the pot. Gibbs showed last season how much his drivers respect him when Stewart and Hamlin were having serious issues with each other, following an ill fated crash that Stewart blamed Hamlin for causing. It seemed the two drivers would be more a collision course than a course to a championship. But then Joe Gibbs showed up, and defused the situation to the point that the two drivers were seen laughing and rough housing after the meeting. I feel the combination of Joe Gibbs reasserting himself as the boss and the off season to fine tune necessary changes to their Car of Tomorrow car, should propel a Joe Gibbs driver to the top seed of the Cup championship next season.

Brian Roberts May Be Headed To Chicago

The trade winds that are surrounding Brian Roberts could potentially blow him into the windy city. Various sources are reporting that Brian Roberts could be traded to the Chicago Cubs at some point today. The switch hitting second baseman would thrive in a deeper line up and on a team which will be far more comptetive than the lowly Baltimore Orioles.

CUBS WOULD GET:

Roberts is a switch hitter who should thrive hitting between Soriano and either Derek Lee or Aramis Ramirez. Roberts provides significant stolen base potential and a good glove in the infield. This trade should allow players like Ryan Theriot and Mark Derosa to return to the super utility roles in which they thrive.

FANTASY IMPACT:

Roberts was already one of the top ranked fantasy second basemen and this potential deal could increase his fantasy value even higher. While his homerun totals should remain about the same since Wrigley is a smaller park similar to Camden Yards, Roberts should easily score more runs playing in a more potent offense. Additionally, if he bats second in the lineup he should see better pitches to hit given the far superior lineup protection he will receive in Chicago. This should help him maintain a .300 average with a higher OBP and a potential for more stolen bases as Pinella will likely turn him loose on the base paths.

Another interesting angle regarding this rumored trade, revolves around Roberts implication in the Mitchell Report. It seems to me that the Orioles trading Roberts would be another step in severing organizational ties to the steroid era. Current and former Oriole player were hit hard by the revelations in the Mitchell Report, and this deal falls in line with the recent trade of Miguel Tejada to Houston and the untimely retirement of Rafael Palmerio.

Bedard to Mariners Rumors

The L.A. Angels of Anaheim have already made one blockbuster trade this winter, sending Orlando Cabrera to the White Sox for Jon Garland. With rumors swirling that the Anaheim Angels might be close to landing slugger Paul Konerko, it appears the Seattle Mariners are attempting to keep up with the Joneses by dealing theirs. Numerous sources, including Fox's Ken Rosenthal, have indicated that Seattle is ready to deal center fielder Adam Jones and various other prospects (the prospects change with the source of the rumor) to the Baltimore Orioles for Eric Bedard. Since I try to stick primarily to the fantasy stuff, lets take a look at what this means for both teams.

SEATTLE MARINERS

For the upcoming season, (I don't mean 2-3 years from now, when prospects might finally pan out) I really like this deal for Seattle. Seattle gets a clear number one/ace, to park in front of their young up and coming ace, Felix Hernandez. Bedard is currently stuck in Baltimore, playing in one of the great hitter's ballparks in all of baseball, in front of a disenfranchised fan base, in a clubhouse littered with steroid accusations and an owner who is like George Steinbrenner, only without the talent. Basically the Baltimore Orioles have become the Oakland Raiders without the heart. Oh, and add to that the fact Bedard plays in the A.L East, and pitches most of his games against some of the league's best offenses in New York, Boston, and Tampa Bay. Even the Blue Jays, who have the East's worst offense (outside of Baltimore), has a formidable lineup.

Here are the things that would benefit Bedard if he was traded to Seattle:

1) Bedard goes to a much better pitcher's ballpark, with a much better defense.
2) Bedard would be pitching to much less formidable and deep lineups in the A.L. West.
3) He Joins a team that showed a bunch of moxie, till they fell apart in the middle to end of August.
4) Baltimore's bullpen was awful last season, while the Seattle bullpen was really one of their strengths.
5) He will be matching up against pitchers who aren't the caliber he would be facing in the A.L. East. (A.L East: Beckett, Schilling, Dice-K, Wang, Pettitte, Kazmir, Halladay, Burnett (when he feels like it) Shields---A.L West: Lackey, Weaver, Blanton Millwood?, Gaudin?)
7) On a bad, bad Baltimore team last season, Bedard managed to win 13 games. Pencil him in for about 16-18 wins next season, with his name again, prominently featured as a Cy Young candidate.

Now, there are probably a lot of people saying, "Well with all those things, shouldn't Eric Bedard be a shoe in for the Cy Young and the reincarnation of Sandy Koufax?!?!" Please don't forget, while Bedard is a special talent, he has a propensity to break down late in the season. In 2005 and 2006 he is a combined 3-5 in September. I didn't include September of the 2007 season because he was hurt and didn't pitch. Rotisserie owners probably wouldn't care too much about those numbers, but for people in a head-to-head league, this is smack in the middle of the playoff run. Bottom line is fantasy or reality, Bedard has never thrown more than 200 innings and still has the potential to miss about 2-4 weeks during any given season.

OTHER SEATTLE STUFF

That young ace, Felix Hernandez, who was brought up to the big leagues, toting the nickname, "King Felix" (NO PRESSURE!) would move back a spot in the rotation and be the 2 starter. This could help him out for a variety of reasons. First, he won't be throwing against the other team's best pitcher, so that should help his win total at the end of the season. Second, Hernandez will have less pressure on him to perform and be prefect every time out. It has been said, the more perfect a pitcher tries to be, the worse he does, especially at such a young age, with such high ("King") expectations. Felix won 14 games last season for Seattle, expect another 2-4 wins for him this year. At the end of the season that improvement could be chalked up to the reasons I gave or just a natural maturity he undergoes.... either way I'll look smart, and so will you if you draft him.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

Baltimore will get a litany of prospects from the Mariners, the most prominent will be center fielder Adam Jones. This gives Baltimore a total of 2 players you should look forward to drafting next season. 1) Nick markakis (who has his own article coming when we get closer to the draft) and 2) Brian Roberts (who is a fantasy trade rumor article all to himself) For everyone angrily saying, "What about Melvin Mora?!?!" "I will retort, "If you look forward to drafting Melvin Mora, you don't deserve to win."

As for Adam Jones, I have never been a big fan drafting rookies, too much hype and unrealistic expectations. I love players who have the potential to go 20/20 and Jones seems like he has that make up, but I have 2 major reservations. The first is as I stated, he is a rookie, with little major league experience. I like to see a player have a good half a season of success
before I would consider drafting him.

My second reservation can be summed up in two words, "Jeremy Reed". That's right Mariners fans how could we forget Jeremy Reed, the last highly touted center field prospect to come out of the Mariners system, and fail. Miserably. This isn't to say that Jones will fail because of Reed, its just that I am bit skeptical when a team has a highly touted prospect who fails and then a few years later a guy with a remarkably similar make up comes around. It comes down to the same people giving the same over-hyped evaluation of what they can do.

If you want to take a late round flier on Jones, there is nothing wrong with that. Everyone values players differently. And while I can speculate on his 2008 output, there is a chance in the end I am wrong and he becomes a fine, fine ball player down the line.

This trade hasn't been finalized yet, so stay with the Fantasy Sports Experience for breaking news and further fantasy analysis.

Martz Should Improve Niners Pass Attack... But What About Gore?

Mike Martz is taking his horse and pony act to San Francisco where he will have the task of revitalizing one of the league's most inept offenses. Martz was named the 49ers' offensive coordinator today and will take over a young offense with several players who have the potential to be solid fantasy options. 

The Niners were riddled with injuries to key offensive personnel in 2007, most notably QB Alex Smith and TE Vernon Davis who each missed significant time during the course of the season. The arrival of Martz's pass-friendly offensive system should help Smith the most, giving him plenty of opportunities to put up healthy yardage and TD numbers. Smith could finish 2008 with middle tier QB numbers making him a serviceable #2 option. 

Davis has been terribly under-utilized in the Niners' conservative offense the past two seasons and will benefit greatly from added looks and touches. He should enter 2008 as a top 5 option at tight end after a respectable finish to his 2007 campaign. Another player to watch is Darrell Jackson who struggled mightily in 2007. A return to a pass-oriented offense friendly to smaller receivers, similar to Holmgren's system in Seattle where he flourished, should increase his 2008 output because lets be honest, he can't do any worse. 

While the guys involved in the Niners pass attack should become better fantasy options under Martz, I am not sure about Frank Gore. He was a consensus first round pick coming into the 2007 season following a big 2006 season. However, hobbled by injuries and stuck in an ineffective offense, Gore produced more like a 4th or 5th rounder.

A healthy Gore should easily top his 2007 output, but I worry about the way he will be used in Martz's offense. Dating back to his days with the Rams, Martz has had a tendency to forget about his running back (even with HOFer Marshall Faulk on the roster). This past season in Detroit, there were several games where the Lions seemingly did not attempt to run the ball at all. This is evidenced by the fact that Kevin Jones lead the team's RBs in carries with just 153.

Gore should be a substantial threat in point per reception leagues as Martz will certainly look to get him and his soft hands involved in the pass game. However, it will be interesting to see if Gore is given the 20 plus carries a game he has required to excel. 

To this end, I will leave you with a telling stat. Over the past two seasons, Gore has amassed 13 100 yard rushing games. In 11 of those games he was given 21 or more carries. 

Live Clemens Blog

5:04 - PM: Drove home at 85 mph stuck listening to the Fan and people complaining about Clemens and the ratings 60 Minutes had last night during the show. Wonder what the ratings for American Gladiators was...

5:05 - Rusty Hardin shows up in his blazing copper tie, straight from the Jeter Ford commercial. A series of phone calls to Clemens from McNamee representatives is discussed. Hardin begins to just throw out days of the week with no dates for us. Thanks Bud. Mcnamee apparently met with Clemens' lawyer and Investigation group (massive team).

5:07 ESPN NEWS cuts away Shit!

5:08 - Apparently there is a tape of the Clemens- McNamee conversation!!!

5:09 - Hick lawyer's accepting blame for all the mistakes in this matter.
"I had no history of Roger, I didn't know him from Adam." Should his lawyer be saying this?

Rusty Hardin sounds like a good NASCAR name.
Apparently Clemens went on a 5 day hunting trip! Very crazy since Bonds went on a hunting trip with Ryan Klesko when he was caught!

Hardin says, "How do you define purgery?"

5:11 - Wondering if this guy is defending Clemens or McNamee?
Wondering where this tape is?
This guys voice is kinda like Roscoe P. Coltrane from the Dukes of Hazzard.

McNamme text messaged Clemens? I only text if I need tail late at night or am taking a shit and am bored. Wonder which McNamee was doing?

Hardin lets everyone know the difference between an hour and 17 minutes. I hate this guy.
These guys talk via text and email? Did they meet on the Internet?
Apparently experts like Roger Cossack are saying Clemens only pressed charges to get out of appearing before Congress. (Note: Roger Cossack is an awful legal analyst.)


5:15 - Still waiting for this tape!!
"Human Jeopardy!" Wonder if this will be the name of the tell all book about this drama?
Who uses tapes anymore?
"Throughout this tape, Roger felt that Brian was considering coming to Texas." I've had this conversation with exes.

17 minutes in and this guy is stuttering, a lot longer than I thought he would go.
Hardin throwing smoke screens at us, telling us to " look at other things."

5:17-5:19 Hardin giving a verbal blow job to Mitchell for the last 2 minutes.

5:20 - No tape yet, ugh this guy is awful.

TAPE TAPE!
Hard to hear when they bleep every other word.
They bleep some stuff and let them say "Same shit you got going on!"
Sounds like a set up to me, looking for the face to face meeting?
"I can't open up to you the way I want to." use your own judgment.
(Note: XM Radio played this unedited)

5:24 - Decided that Clemens can barely hold a conversation, and this poor guy doesn't know he's being taped.
Mcnamee was sick and in the hospital? Hmmmmmm guilt made him that sick?

Wonder if he is talking in the third person, "Brian has nothing to do with this!"

Mcnamee is starting to remind me of the stalker guy from Happy Gilmore that stalked Shooter McGavin.

Clemens says, "Deb is a mess, hope this doesn't ruin her jewelery business she has." Way to look at the big picture Rocket.

5:29 - McNamee says "What do you want me to do, do you want me to show up to the conference?"... Well... yeah

Clemens' people/entourage are awful at relaying information to Clemens.

Clemens uses "brother" almost as much as Hulk Hogan.

Mcnamee isn't reliable, seems like a weak minded pawn.

5:31- almost four hours until American Gladiators.

When clemens says " I treated you like I treated everybody else" WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?
Mcnamee admits to helping Rocket with school projects?

"I tried to be like you", Mcnamee has been saying this over and over.

"EVERYTHING I HAVE TO THIS DAY I HAVE BECAUSE OF YOU" Mcnamee loves him some Rocket!

Clemens investigation team? He hired private eyes, maybe Don Knots and Tim Conway based on this investigation.

Mcnamee's 10 year old son is dying? This is terrible!

"I just need someone to tell the truth Mack", waiting for someone to give the Nicholson, "You can't handle the truth!"

5:36 - "I'm hurt, I'm upset and I'm shocked and I know that I didn't do it" - Clemens

Mcnamee has said "Tell me what you want me to do" over 30 times, he sounds like someone who just got dumped and doesn't know why. Sounds like me after my first girlfriend.

5:38 - Rocket gonna answer some questions!!!

Hardin again, this guy is awful! Mcnamee never says Clemens did steroids.

Hardin has yet to provide anything worth while...He just told us Clemens will testify next week! Finally something good.

3-2-1 lift off here we go!

5:40 - Clemens offering condolences to his college coach son's funeral.

"I'm uncomfortable looking at some of you right now." Clemens says to the press!

First question: Why he didn't meet with Mitchell? Clemens tip toes around it and says he didn't know what it was about.

Second: B-12 question, Clemens has taken it forever, helps him from getting sick a.k.a. colds. Lidacaine was for pain in his back when he was with Toronto, true since he carried that team.

Third: Phone tapping question, apparently NY and Texas allow it, no motion to suppress this evidence!

Fourth: Questioning Clemens forceful manner. Nothing much going on here.

Five: Another injection question, "Why did u let someone without a medical degree inject you?" Answer: Good one, "No one told me he wasn't"

Six: Tell me what to do question, "I would love for him to come down here, but I would be afraid for him."

Seven: Pettitte question, "We never talked about it and talked about it in passing."

Eight: Question about representatives, nothing special. More shit from Hardin.

Nine: where did the b-12 and Lidacaine come from. "I never provided it" Clemens says.

Ten: Apparently women are allowed in this one? Are Steroid users cheaters? Short fix, makes ya look good and hurts your body.

DO YOU THINK ANDY PETTITTE IS A CHEATER? Clemens responds, "Andy Pettitte is my friend."

Rocket is fully fired up, "CAN I DRINK WATER, is that good or bad? Yes I can swallow!" Clemens is getting ticked off!

5:48 - Back pain setting in, don't wanna take any vioxx,
question eleven is about vioxx, Ironic.

Twelve: I missed this question, but could clearly hear Rocket respond, "I'm gonna answer questions about me!" He's getting really ticked off.

Thirteen: Lie detector question, Douche Lawyer answers, I have stopped listening to him. He has no credibility. Blah Blah Blah, No polygraph.

Fourteen: Clemens, "CLEMENS IS CURSING, "This isn't about records or heroes, I could give a rats ass about those things, This is about my health!"

Fifteen: Can't hear the question... let's hear the reply from the angry Rocket.
"You want me to lighten up? It's hard to! Thank you"

Clemens: "How do I prove a negative?" good point Rocket

Clemens, If you have a vote , you can keep your vote, do you think I give a rats ass about the Hall of Fame? You can keep your vote."

"I've said enough"

"I defy anyone to prove that I cheated"

After 55 minutes of typing and trying to pay attention, I can concur that:
A) McNamee loves the Rocket and is upset that roger broke up with him.
B) McNamee had no clue he was being recorded
C) Apparently it is legal to record phone conversations in New York.
D) Nothing really came out of the phone conversation, but it did not prove Clemens did anything right or wrong!
E)Clemens is probably yelling at his lawyer right now.
F) Clemens said some very interesting things:
"This isn't about records or heroes, I could give a rats ass about those things, This is about my health!"

"CAN I DRINK WATER, is that good or bad? Yes I can swallow!"

"I'm uncomfortable looking at some of you right now"

After an hour We still have no answers, actually we have a whole lot more questions than we did before. What's McNamee's deal? IS he just that desperate for attention, has he given up because his family life is going down the tubes? Did Clemens cut him off and he went "Single White Female" on him? Next week is Congress, this should be good!

Clemens Files Defamation Law Suit

Several news outlets are reporting that before Roger Clemens' interview on "60 Minutes" last night that the former Cy Young Award winner filed a defamation of character lawsuit in a Texas State court against former trainer Brian McNamee. This looks to be the Rocket's first step in trying to vindicate himself againt the steroid alligations made popular in the Mitchell Report.

Clemens' fantasy value is now near nill. The former Red Sox, Blue Jays, Yankees, and Astros star will probably spend next season more concerned with clearing the good name of his Hall of Fame career than getting batters out. The Rocket said during the interview that the alligations of steroid use and proceeding firestorm has turned him off to yet another comeback. If you want to take a last round flier on the Rocket, go ahead. But I am not sure it is even worth it this season.

Glen "Big Baby" Davis... Not Worth The Fantasy Hype

Celtics and fantasy NBA fans every where are going to see what Big Baby did last night versus the Pistons and want to quickly grab him. I am telling you right now, DON'T. One game is not the body of work that people should be looking for when looking to add a player. I wrote an article earlier today explaining how Josh Boone was building a body of work that makes him a legitimately good fantasy center right now, and for the future. Davis had one hot night against a very good team, but do not use that as a reason to add him, he is not worth it.

In fact for anyone who is interested in Davis, I did some checking and I have 2 words for you, "Robert Traylor". Over sized player who was able to dominate at the collegiate level, but whose size and conditioning hurt them once they made it into the NBA. I think Davis might be good for a few nights during the season of what he did last night, where Boston's Big Three, need to defer to a Fourth party, but not enough for him to put up solid stats every night. I also question if he has the physical make up to be able to bang and run the court well enough to put up numbers consistently.

Josh Boone on the other hand, plays with one of the best ball distributer's in the league and is getting thirty minutes a night. Boone also is counted on more for rebounding than Dais would be. Boone right now is probably the Nets best rebounder, while on the Celtics, Kevin Garnett is the guy counted on most.

I realize there are a ton of Celtics fans out there who might buy into the one game hype of Glen Davis. But, I urge people to look at circumstances and the body of work, before making a short sighted fantasy add like Glen Davis.

Fantasy Baller On The Brink: It's A Boone Town

I think it is time to start calling Josh Boone a legitimate fantasy center. A month ago this did not seem like a tangible idea. The Nets were an inconsistent team, Boone was on the Nets' bench, and stuck behind Jason "Twin" Collins and Nenad Kristic for playing time, and rumors were swirling that Jason Kidd wanted out of New Jersey. The team seemed destined to implode. A funny thing happened on the way to implosion.

Nets head coach Lawrence Frank started to go with a more youthful line up. Kristic's surgically repaired knee still needed more time to heal and Frank benched Jason Collins and began to start Boone on a consistent basis. I can guess Frank realized what fantasy owners have know for years, Jason Collins is as useful as a lampshade. The move has not only meant more playing time for Boone, but it has also rejuvenated the Nets season.

He has been averaging a little under a double- double over the last 2 weeks, and I believe he will continue to get stronger as a player while he acclimates to the new starting gig. There are a bunch of things working for Boone to his advantage.
1) There is no pressure on him. With Vince Carter, Richard Jefferson, Jason Kidd and Bostjan Nachbar on the court at any time, there is going to be a lot of double teaming going on. Meaning that Boone could get a lot of open looks under the basket. Dare I say it, Boone will go under the radar of most teams, when preparing to face the Nets.
2) He plays along side Jason Kidd. Jason Kidd makes everyone he plays around better. It is that simple. Seriously think of the NJ Nets before Kidd got there. They were the Clippers East. Kenyon Martin, Keith Van Horn, Stephon Marbury, 0 results. Then, the trade of Marbury for Kidd changed everything, and turned the Nets from perennial losers, to a perennial power house in the East. Quiet simply; Josh Boone will continue to get better because Jason Kidd is too good to let him play poorly.
3) He is their starting center. This is important to remember, there is no one waiting in the wings to replace him if he plays poorly. Lawrence Frank has showed many times his insistence to sticking with his guys, to a near fault at times. In this case, going with the younger, more athletic Boone is the right choice. Believe me, Jason Collins is not going to get any more big minutes any time soon.

My suggestion is to grab Boone now. If you feel like you have a better option, stash Boone on your bench, and keep an eye on what he is doing. By the end of the season, as he becomes more experienced, and he gets more acclimated to his teammates and his increased minutes, I think Boone can become a 13point, 12 rebound, 1 block a night guy.

Fantasy Ballers On The Brink: Louis Williams & Nate Robinson

This time of year, the fantasy basketball waiver wire is about as barren as the trees outside. Normally, the vast majority of breakout players and injury beneficiaries are snatched up quickly in the first two months of the season. The next wave of impact guys come later in the season, February and beyond, as a result of deadline trades, late season injuries/precautionary shutdowns and tanking for draft purposes.

Thus, the best way to go about adding players this time of year is to project forward rather than adding the flavor of the week which can result in a never-ending carousel of mediocrity on your roster. I like to look for talented young guys whose playing time has been steadily rising and/or are one move away from seeing increased burn. Once a player is averaging 25 minutes/game or more, than they will have the opportune amount of playing time to contribute on a consistent basis. There is nothing more frustrating then adding a young guy who looks great one night and like Jared Jeffries the next.

These players normally reside on bad teams that are close to trading veterans or desperate for a lineup change. Right now, there are two excellent candidates worthy of being added immediately that have not received much notoriety in fantasy basketball circles, yet. Both are on poor to terrible basketball teams and have seen there playing time reach or exceed the 25 minute/game threshold in the past 2 weeks. These two players are Louis Williams of the Philadelphia 76ers and New York Knicks guard Nate Robinson.

Nate is the better candidate right now as he is averaging over 30 minutes a game over the past 2 weeks. He has been posting solid offensive numbers scoring 17.3 points per game along with over 2 three pointers. Nate's energetic style of play could also help fantasy owners in rebounds and steals as well as assists (if he gets decent burn at the point), making him a balanced fantasy contributor.

The Knicks are a team in crisis mode right now and the young guys have been getting extended minutes as a desperate Isiah Thomas attempts to shake things up. Robinson should continue to play 30 minutes or more a night regardless of Stephon Marbury's return to the lineup.

Louis Williams has been playing well lately and has the potential to have a big second half. He is averaging a modest 13 points/game over his last 6 (17.5 a game over his last 3) as his playing time continues to increase, eclipsing 25 minutes a night. Williams' quick hands on defense have allowed him to compile some impressive steal totals as he is averaging nearly 2 per game over the aforementioned 6 game stretch.

Unfortunately, Williams is currently stuck behind Andre Miller at point guard which hurts his value. However, with Billy King gone, new GM Ed Stefanski looks ready to overhaul the roster and shift the Sixers into rebuilding mode as evidenced by the recent trade of Kyle Korver to Utah for an expiring contract and first round pick.

By many accounts Miller appears the next man out of town, probably before the trade deadline to one of several team in search of a veteran PG, making Williams the starting point guard. This would mean big minutes each night, allowing Williams to get more assists and add to his steal and scoring totals. He could be a big difference maker come playoff time.

Konerko to Angels Rumors

A few different organizations are reporting that the Anaheim Angels and Chicago White Sox are discussing a possible trade involving Paul Konerko. A few scenarios have been bantered about, but the 2 names most commonly seen as going from Anaheim to Chicago are Howie Kendrick and Ervin Santana. To a lesser extent, Chone Figgins’ name has also been mentioned in some articles.

From a fantasy perspective (which is what we do here), if this trade happens, I like this deal for both teams.

FOR ANAHEIM

Anaheim would finally… FINALLY get Vladimir Guerrero the line up protection they have been promising him for years. I think Konerko would fit in well in that Angel’s line up that could project to look like this.

Chone Figgins (3B)

Casey Kotchman (1B)

Vladimir Guerrero (RF)

Paul Konerko (DH)

Garret Anderson/ Juan Rivera (LF)

Torii Hunter (CF)

Gary Matthews (CF/ LF)

Mike Napoli (C)

Erick Ayabar (SS)

Maicer Izturis (2B)

The biggest problem Anaheim would be faced with, based on this line up, is that it is impossible to field a team with a ten man line up. It cannot be done, it would be considered breaking the rules and MLB won’t allow them to do it. Another potential problem would be that the only spot in the line up Konerko could fill would be the DH slot and the Angels have said many times that they would prefer to use the DH spot as a way to keep Vlad and Garret Anderson healthy and fresh. To me it seems like this trade works if Anaheim follows this deal up with another trade involving either Gary Matthews or Casey Kotchman. Perhaps Anaheim likes the idea of going into the season with a lot of bench and outfield depth, which might not be a bad idea. However, I doubt they will pay Matthews 10$ million a season to come off the bench.

The fantasy impact for Konerko, could be great. I think him moving into a much deeper line up, should help his RBIs and Runs totals. He is not an elite 1B, but certainly he isn't far off. After Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, and Carlos Pena you could make the argument that, in this Anaheim line up, Konerko could be a legit top 5 1B. At worst Konerko gives his usual .280, with 30+HR, and 100+RBIs... nothing spectacular, but there is a lot to be said for being consistent in fantasy sports.

FOR CHICAGO

Chicago builds on the Swisher trade, and gets another young hitter, this time in the person of Howie Kendrick. I like Howie Kendrick a lot, and I really like him in this White Sox line up. The other day I commented on how Chicago was building its team around sluggers with low batting averages. Well, in Kendrick they get a young player, who can hit for average, with a bit of pop and who can steal a bag every so often, and they are filling a position where they have a hole anyway at 2B. I think Kendrick would go a long way in balancing this line up and helps them rebuild, while trying, once again, to contend.

I think this puts Kendrick into the top 10 of 2B rankings. Don't be fooled, 2B is a surprisingly deep position, but I believe in Kendrick this much as a player. The injury bug bit him in 2007, expect a very nice 2008. Personally I think he will be a top 5 2B, but there isn't enough of a track record for me to go saying that, without facts to back it up.

Chicago would also potentially get Ervin Santana in this trade. Santana is still a young pitcher, with a live arm whose career has been marred by its ups and downs. A change of scenery might do Santana some good, while he continues to find some consistency as a major leaguer. Santana could fill in as a spot starter in the rotation, but I feel his best place, might be as a power arm to come out of that White Sox bullpen that struggled mightily last season.

It could be a while before this even happens. IF this deal happens. So we'll see how things change and comment further from there.

There's a Hall of Fame For Everyone!

While sitting at lunch today I stumbled upon the Hall of Fame ballot and found myself becoming very angry after reading some of the names of the player who are even being considered for the Hall of Fame. The funny thing is that some prankster will take part in some tomfoolery and give one of these undeserving players an actual vote. The New players to the ballot this year are just laughable. Some of these players may not be ready for the Baseball Hall of Fame, but maybe there is a special place each one of these guys belongs where they will be appreciated. Let's take a look!

New to the Ballot:

Brady Anderson- We all know about Brady's 1996 season when he belted 50 home runs and led the Orioles to a playoff loss to Jeffery Meher and Armando Benitez. But Brady's numbers really don't make him Hall of Fame Worthy. Brady, a class guy all the way who obviously, "Worked his butt off" just like superstars Jason Giambi and Sammy Sosa. Brady belong in a very special place where many great baseball players will soon end up. I induct you Brady Anderson into the "Mitchell didn't catch me...yet" Hall of Fame.

Chuck Finley - After 17 years of service and 200 wins, the bleach blonde lefty will only be remembered for one thing. No it's not his career record against the Yankees or the Fact he wasn't Mark Langston. Oh no, you Chuck Finley are now inducted into the " My wife kicked my ass" Hall of fame. Here I go again on my own Chuck, congrats as we move along.

Chuck Knoblauch- ARE YOU SERIOUS?

Robb Nen- After 10 years, 310 saves and being stuck in Florida and San Fran, Rob Nen finds himself stuck in the twilight zone of Hall of fame candidates. Relief pitchers should have their own hall of fame sponsored by who else? Rolaids!! If Nen doesn't make the cut there? Maybe there is a palindrome hall of fame ?

Tim Raines- 7 time all star, 2600 hits and 808 stolen bases? Sounds good to me! Oh wait his nickname was "Rock". hmmmmmmmmm Even the Voters can figure that one out. Tim Raines I induct you into the "You got caught Partner" Hall of fame.

Jose Rijo -Seriously?

Todd Stottlemyre - Come one?! Just because someone plays in the league for 14 years and happened to be on a world series winning team doesn't make them deserving of the baseball hall of fame. If so, I say Luis Sojo gets the nod. You Todd Stottlemeyer, If your name wasn't Stottlemeyer, you would be the Jeff mussleman of the Blue Jays. I induct you into the Shane Mcmahon Hall of fame.

Previously on:

Harold Baines - Too bad H Baines couldn't play a position and was stuck playing in those silly White sox jersey and shorts early in his career. He was Edgar Martinez before Edgar Martinez was cool. Harold Baines will always be the second best DH of all time. Even though he had 2866 hits and played for 22 years, Baines will forever be known and will never get in. So Harold Baines I am going to do you a solid! I induct you into the Bernie Williams Look alike Hall Of Fame.

Tommy John - This man is the reason many players are still playing, why many doctors are still rich and the reason Carl Pavano is still getting paid. who cares about his 288 wins, who cares about his 26 years in the game. Tommy John I induct you into the James Andrews Hall of Fame.

Don Mattingly-Even though my life revolves around this man, I am a realist. I can read the numbers, and I do not compare him to Kirby Puckett! Of course they had similar numbers and of course Puckett has 2 World Series rings, but let's look at the big picture. Let's live in the now! Who has a job ? Who has the criminal record? Who has two real eyes? Who gets to sit next to Joe Torre and wonder why Proctor is in again? Yes, Don Mattingly you are inducted into the "I didn't sell my soul to the devil to get in the hall of fame" Hall of fame.

Jack Morris- Balls to the walls, a mustache to die for, World Series stud, 18 years, and 254 wins! He might not have the stats to be a hall of famer, but Mr. Morris I induct you into the Mustache Hall of fame. If John Smotlz ever wants to get in, we will refer to game 7 of the 91 series as the reason you are in and he is not!

Jim Rice- You weren't as good as Dave Winfield Hall of fame.

Alan Trammell - Alan Trammel without Lou whitaker is kinda like Marty Jannetty without Shawn Michaels. Once out of the League Trammel tried to manage. What he was trying to manage was the question. He had a great career and was a part of some great teams and revolutionized the position. I induct you Alan Trammel into the shitty manager Hall of Fame. Trammel's spot is reserved next to Stump Merril and Jeff Torborg.

These are just my personal opinion about some of these players and I find it ridiculous that any of these players, other than Morris, are even considered. More to come from JP. Thanks for your time, I hope I did not offend.

The Third Man

Allow me to introduce myself, I would have copy and pasted my Yahoo fantasy Baseball and Football resume to this introduction, but the numbers would take away all of my credibility. I am here to represent those fantasy owners who struggle to survive and find themselves making impulse moves and find themselves blaming injuries for failures each year. I am here to represent those of you that still live five years ago and believe in the value of the hold! If you find yourself searching for a spot starter on a Sunday of your head to head league then I am your man. You will soon learn I have a very unique way of evaluating talent when it comes to fantasy sports. If a player has done me good in the past(Da Meat Hook, Roberto Hernandez, Donald Driver, Etc...), he has reached, "My Guy" status. If a player has done me wrong in the past (Plummer, swisher, Rolen, Rolen, etc...) Those players are forever blackballed and no longer welcome in my fantasies. Fantasy players are just like women, once they do you wrong they can't be trusted. However, if they do you right, you trust them even when most others don't. I will soon share the complete My Guy list of fantasy baseball players that can be trusted. Just for the record we have 56 more days until spring training!!!

JP

Trade Puts Swisher In Line For A Big 2008

At FSE, we couldn't have imagined a more appropriate starting point than today's trade of Nick Swisher to the Chicago White Sox. You see, Phil and I, we were big on Nick Swisher coming into the 2007 season. Big enough that we both had him pegged as a first round selection in our keeper league which features two keepers per team.

Our infatuation with Swisher was a product of his finish to the 2006 season which saw a promising 25 year old really start to come into his own at the plate. Swish absolutely mashed in the months of August and September hitting 13 homers with 39 RBIs and 34 runs scored. In addition to the surge in power numbers, Swisher continued to walks, drawing 4 balls 34 times over the 2 months span while compiling a stunning 1.062 OPS in the final month of the season.

Swisher had an off year in 2007 with a noticeable drop in his power numbers; however, many of his other key numbers actually remained the same or actually improved.

AB R H HR RBI BB OBP SLG OPS BA

2006 539 84 141 22 78 100 .381 .454 .835 .261

2007 556 106 141 35 95 97 .371 .492 .869 .253

Taking a closer look at Swisher's output, the bolded numbers highlight those that dropped from 2006 to 2007. If you notice, outside of the power numbers - Homeruns and Slugging - the key stats that took a hit were runs scored and RBI, two stats reliant on outside factors aka other hitters in the lineup. Swisher actually increased his OBP by walking more and equalling his 2006 hit total in the less ABs in 2007.

Given that SBs were a non-factor both seasons (he wasn't running himself out of scoring position), it can be deduced that while Swish's RBI totals were hurt a bit by his reduced power production, the fact that he hit in a poorer lineup in 2007 played a big role in his diminished offensive production, particularly runs scored. To this end, the loss of Frank Thomas as a legitimate clean up stick in the lineup furthers my point as Swish thrived when hitting in front of the Big Hurt in 06.

Not only will Swisher benefit from moving to a considerably better hitter's park, (especially for homeruns) but the 2008 Chicago White Sox lineup will also provide Swisher with ample protection. He will most likely slot into the two hole to start the season and eventually hit third. As of now, I see White Sox looking something like this next season:

1. Orlando Cabrera SS

2. Nick Swisher CF

3. Paul Konerko 1B

4. Jim Thome DH

5. Jermaine Dye RF

6. Josh Fields 3B

7. AJ Pierzynski C

8. Carlos Quentin LF

9. 2B Danny Richar?

I still feel that White Sox GM Kenny Williams has one more trade he would like to make to add pitching and it could very well include Dye or Thome (I don't see Konerko getting moved). Thus, Swish could very well begin the year in the three hole in front of Konerko, the optimal lineup spot for him in Chicago.

Finally, I would be remiss if I didn't mention that Swisher just turned the golden age of 27 on November 25th, just ask Garrett Atkins and Vernon Wells how that year worked out for them...

Swisher Trade

The Oakland A's surprised a bunch of people on Thursday trading Nick Swisher to the White Sox for 3 minor leaguers. Following the trade of Dan Haren to the Diamondbacks a couple weeks ago, I think everyone figured the A's would continue to make more trades and rebuild, that was no surprise to anyone. More specifically, I think most people, like me, thought the next guy to get traded from the A's would have been Joe Blanton. After all, if you are going to rebuild, isn't a young slugger like Nick Swisher the type of player you build an organization around? Does anyone else find it odd that Billy Beane would trade a young slugger who could be the corner stone of the franchise for the next 5-6 seasons? My thoughts on this later on...

The White Sox bolster a line up that features 5 guys who could all potentially hit .270 with 30homeruns and 90rbis (Paul Konerko, Jim Thome, Swisher, Jermaine Dye, and Josh Fields). Add to that the addition of Orlando Cabrera from the Angels and the White Sox still have the second or third best line up in their division. Being surrounded with this sort of talent and moving into a more hitter friendly ballpark should help Swisher improve his numbers a bit from last season.

That being said, I would still not go overboard and move Swisher that far up on my '08 draft board. After seeing Swisher hit .254 with 35hr and 95rbis in 2006, I had Swish very high in my '07 draft and figured that he would build on those numbers and make himself an MVP contender. Instead fantasy owners, like myself, actually saw Swisher regress as a hitter, and put up numbers that were startlingly similar to his 2006, rookie season campaign.

Year Team AB R H HR RBI BB SB BA
2007 OAK 539 84 141 22 78 100 3 0.2616
2006 OAK 556 106 141 35 95 97 1 0.2536
2005 OAK 462 66 109 21 74 55 0 0.2359

Maybe this is sour grapes from being burned by him last season, but I really don't see Swisher building on the merits of his '06 season any time soon. Sometimes players slump in the first half and pick it up in the second half (see Swish's current teammate Jermaine Dye as an example). But Swish's 2007 was so consistent, without many peaks or valleys in it, it would be tough to look at one prolonged slump as a reason for his poor numbers, because in reality the entire season was a prolonged slump. There was also never a mention of injury to account for his sudden and abrupt loss of power, as there was in his 2006 season when he acquired mono for the month of July and his number dipped across the board.

I doubt a change of scenery helps any. As Swish loved playing in Oakland, and was a favorite both in the clubhouse and to the fans. I think with Chicago Swisher turns into a younger version of Raul Ibanez. He had one really outstanding season, and a bunch of solid seasons after that, that make people forget he is around. Maybe Billy Beane already knew this. They had gotten all they could out of Swisher and traded him before his value dropped after this season. Swisher is still a fine, fine fantasy player, just don't let this trade make you over value him come draft time.

As for Oakland, I think that for 2008, the player who could have the most impact is the hard throwing, Fautino De Los Santos. I could see him possibly setting up or getting an early shot at closing, especially if Oakland also trades Houston Street, while they continue to rebuild.

Looking ahead, after this news, I expect Oakland to trade Eric Chavez next, probably to the Brewers. I think the Brewers are still looking for a veteran 3b, and this makes more sense than trading in their own division to get Scott Rolen from the Cardinals. Figure Beane will bide his time with Blanton and he has enough suitors that he can sit back and wait for someone to come to him with a deal.

New Blog Experience

What I think will be original about this blog, is that the people here won't go around claiming they are experts, or that they have all the answers. Don't get me wrong sites like ESPN have tremendous fantasy coverage, and is a great place to get current news and stats. But one field I find ESPN severely lacking in is its head-to-head league coverage. Most of what they supply is for the classic, rotisserie leagues, while it has been shown that most fantasy players now prefer the head-to head format. I am of the opinion that head-to-head, needs more strategy, and really changes week to week depending on the type of team you are playing.

None have us have all the answers, but we all have different philosophies, and it'll be up to the reader to pick and choose which philosophy or idea, they want to pick from. As Ben said, we are talking sports stories and their fantasy implications all the time, so this will be more of an extension of our conversations than it will be a "how to".

Currently I primarily focus on fantasy baseball and football (thoughts and strategies to come...) while I also have experience in fantasy basketball and have participated in fantasy NASCAR to varying degrees the last 2 seasons.

I know all of us look forward to getting this blog going fully with daily updates and our personal thoughts.

Thanks

Phil

Welcome To The Fantasy Sports Experience

Rather than spending an inordinate amount of time bombarding one another with fantasy sports-related analysis and prognostications via AIM, I (Ben) have joined together with my buddies Josh and Phil to bring you the Fantasy Sports Experience.

Focusing on baseball, basketball and football, we will provide comprehensive year round coverage for fantasy sports fanatics including player/team analysis, pre-draft guidance, predictions and full commentary on all developments in the MLB, NBA and NFL which may effect the fantasy sports landscape. 

We will each be writing an introduction in the coming days to get the ball rolling, so keep a look out for us and feel free to share our site with the fantasy sports enthusiast in your life.